Will Putin invade ?

[robs1]

Kyiv live on news tonight
How come the city isn’t blacked out?

Generator

 

[JohnGalway]

Aye, very true. It simply gives the Putin propaganda justification every time a Ukrainian civvie is killed... "they were armed and attacking us".

If/when it comes to a "resistance" guerrilla war, the distribution of weapons will be useful. But between now and then, impassioned and emboldened civvies are going to fancy their chances - but unfortunately get themselves injured or killed.

The % of the world that matters will have two words for Putin's claims. The others, let's just say I believe in GW Bush "with or against" line.

 

[Ranger Security Solutions]

The worry is, that they are saying Putin has designs beyond Ukraine.

The way that they are trying to "liberate" southern Ukraine, and hoping to create the land bridge between Russia and Crimea; makes me think of the Baltic States and Kaliningrad.

The Baltic States are NATO members though; and things are not going as smoothly as the Russians expected in Ukraine, so will probably think twice about taking on NATO and their Western European/North American armies. Finland and Sweden have obviously had a verbal shot across the bow.

 

[bobk]

Anyone blamed this conflict on Brexit yet ....... bit of banter for the easily offended

 

[TheTallGuy]

I'm very surprised by the Ruskies out running their logistics tail despite the advance having fallen behind schedule. Operational manoeuvre was a key element of modern Soviet/Russian doctrine - especially in light of historical attacks on Russia failing for exactly that reason. I'm beginning to think that the someone has misjudged things somewhat...

I was surprised to hear the Russians had taken Chernobyl power plant. I didn't think any of it was still in use. Just going near the place and churning up the mud is foolhardy as it will be contaminated all the same and end up on their vehicles, clothing and equipment. You don't want to be ingesting or breathing it.

Ukrainian forces were under orders not to contest Chernoble as there was too much risk involved. It makes sense to the Russians to take control of the area to prevent material from the area being used for "dirty bombs"

 

[serf]

Looking at what's happening in Ukraine either the Russians are taking this pretty slow & steadily or they are nowhere near as powerful as we are led to believe, compare this invasion with the shock & all that was unleashed on Iraq by the West all those years ago which is making this look pretty amateurish at best.

Just hope that's the case then and there's not a load more enroute , read somewhere that they have run low on big ammo and only got the raw materials but would take months to turn round,, and import movements have stopped the supply chain from outside country's where they would get the gear from , all because resistance was underestimated , not sure how true but they might fizzle out or turn to desperation and use even nastier sh!t as Last resort stuff!

 

[JohnGalway]

The way that they are trying to "liberate" southern Ukraine, and hoping to create the land bridge between Russia and Crimea; makes me think of the Baltic States and Kaliningrad.

The Baltic States are NATO members though; and things are not going as smoothly as the Russians expected in Ukraine, so will probably think twice about taking on NATO and their Western European/North American armies. Finland and Sweden have obviously had a verbal shot across the bow.

I'm not so sure Putin is rational enough to make good decisions, OR no one in his tiny circle likes telling him bad news like "Boss, we aren't able to...."

 

[bobk]

Sky have shown excellent coverage with a full team in Kiev

The strategists are saying the ruskies aren't keen on going in as this plays to the Ukrainians strength ,

 

[Still Farming]

Video

fb.watch

 

[Ranger Security Solutions]

I'm not so sure Putin is rational enough to make good decisions, OR no one in his tiny circle likes telling him bad news like "Boss, we aren't able to...."

Dark times...

 

[matthew]

I live not far away from where it was alleged to have started,and in the first few days from Feb 19,the way it spread just did not stack up at all,given that it was from a swill fed pig farm.Historically,wherever it started that way,then nearly all livestock within a few miles radius would have caught it.This did not happen......................Anyway,wrong thread for this.

Bobby Waugh was a convenient scapegoat. He told me that he believed trading standards personnel brought it into his farm from the Northern sheep markets, which they had inspected earlier. Hexham was mentioned.

@Bury the Trash:

Background: No guesses. HSE gave us info under Freedom of Information about what our labs were playing with in 2000.
One strand of FMD research was Level 1 - vaccines. But another was Level 4 - bio weapons, with a human gene insert. That gave HSE indigestion, they said, in case it ‘got out’. But it was not their problem, they said. It was the Ministry’s and they licensed it.

We here have the Same difficulty in understanding the area source as well but aerosol /plumes of the virus would be very unpredictable in where they land and survive for long enough for susceptible stock to pick up viably, even with the general assumption of being carried prevailing winds, nature can be very random and unpredictable.
It affected me for several yrs after but i can let it go now and yes back to the op subject would it be wise to suggest to family in London to come away from there in case of a 'bomb strike' by Mr P.

Re current skirmish. My son in law’s Polish mum, having lived under the Russian jackboot, suggests when they visit again, (March) he and our daughter stay here. Problem is their established businesses in Poland, involving three properties, a hotel and two teenage children.
But that’s no use at all if a Russian rifle is at your back….

Sorry - OT

 

[TheTallGuy]

Just hope that's the case then and there's not a load more enroute , read somewhere that they have run low on big ammo and only got the raw materials but would take months to turn round,, and import movements have stopped the supply chain from outside country's where they would get the gear from , all because resistance was underestimated , not sure how true but they might fizzle out or turn to desperation and use even nastier sh!t as Last resort stuff!

Russia has got literal mountains of spare ordinance, but not necessarily the most modern or right types in the right places.

 

[bobk]

Russia has got literal mountains of spare ordinance, but not necessarily the most modern or right types in the right places.

Or the right people using them

 

[Al R]

Looking at what's happening in Ukraine either the Russians are taking this pretty slow & steadily or they are nowhere near as powerful as we are led to believe, compare this invasion with the shock & all that was unleashed on Iraq by the West all those years ago which is making this look pretty amateurish at best.

Even though I was young I can still remember watching Afghanistan being carpet bombed day after day. Total all out air assault.

Iraq like you say was more land based with tanks and soldiers which gained serious ground, albeit against an extremely poorly equipped defence, there were civilians in Iraq, less so in the mountains of Helmand province where Al Qaeda were hiding.

 

[Ranger Security Solutions]

I'm not so sure Putin is rational enough to make good decisions, OR no one in his tiny circle likes telling him bad news like "Boss, we aren't able to...."

And more seriously; this is what concerns me a lot, if this is how Putin treats the head of the Russian intelligence services:

 

[Hindsight]

Sky have shown excellent coverage with a full team in Kiev

The strategists are saying the ruskies aren't keen on going in as this plays to the Ukrainians strength ,

What does Jeff Stelling and the pundits reckon Bob?

 

[hoff135]

Since I've change from being an expert on covid to one on wars, here's my view.

Worst case scenario for putin.

He thought it would be over by now, Ukrainians would run away and he would take Kiev quick and clean will little damage to his own army and that half the population would come out waving russain flags. Now he faces days if not weeks of fighting with heavy casualties for russia. Kiev may be destroyed, 1000 of civilian deaths, maybe 10s of thousands.

He then has to install a new puppet to run the country and the remaining population are suddenly meant to be happy. They will hate his guts. It ain't going to work, ukraine will be a failed state, economy in tatters. Possible insurgency going on for years. 30% of russians have family in Ukraine, many will lose relatives.

He needed a quick campaign, almost bordering on liberation to make it look good. He's going to have nightmare.

 

[JohnGalway]

And more seriously; this is what concerns me a lot, if this is how Putin treats the head of the FSB and all the other Russian intelligence services:

Surely one of those minions can do the world a favour.

 

[bobk]

What does Jeff Stelling and the pundits reckon Bob?

They say your attempts at humour aren't as good as mine

 

[TheTallGuy]

I'll admit to having a bit of a tear in my eyes watching the women in Dnipro preparing molotov cocktails - prepared to risk their lives to resist the invasion... gutsy or foolhardy I can't say, but I have to admire them for it!