Combinables Price Tracker

Daniel · Mar 12, 2022

Chae1 said:
Will you just not restock?

Must be tough for pig and poultry guys with feed prices where they are.

Depends where you are in your flock cycle, our next flocks are already in rear, but obviously producers who were due to restock in the autumn or later will be able to cancel.

It takes time for these things to play out, it will probably end in a big shortage of eggs and pork, huge price rises and everyone restocking in a bust and boom cycle. Whereas if the retailers weren’t so short termist they would be covering feed and energy costs now to keep production levels steady.

midlandslad · Mar 12, 2022

Daniel said:
Depends where you are in your flock cycle, our next flocks are already in rear, but obviously producers who were due to restock in the autumn or later will be able to cancel.

It takes time for these things to play out, it will probably end in a big shortage of eggs and pork, huge price rises and everyone restocking in a bust and boom cycle. Whereas if the retailers weren’t so short termist they would be covering feed and energy costs now to keep production levels steady.

It will stop new chicken units going up.

Clive · Mar 12, 2022

ewald said:
Most tickets are not bought by business people used to thinking about odds - they are bought by dreamers buying £1 of hope on a Saturday evening.....besides, this time it might be me........

Probably a more sensible investment than AN at £925

“aspiration tax”

JD6920s · Mar 12, 2022

midlandslad said:
It will stop new chicken units going up.

The price of steel and concrete won’t be helping either!

Zippy768 · Mar 12, 2022

Clive said:
“aspiration tax”

The nitrogen??

Clive · Mar 12, 2022

Zippy768 said:
The nitrogen??

lottery tickets !

Daniel · Mar 12, 2022

midlandslad said:
It will stop new chicken units going up.

Good, pull up the drawbridge!

Surgery · Mar 12, 2022

does anyone know what % of cereals-meat has to be imported into the country and where it usually comes from , think that might need pointing out to the general public that if your short of food I’m sure South America won’t mind lopping down another few football pitches a day of rain forest to help.

wonder what greta thumb thing thinks about all this , she seems to ha e gone all quite.

midlandslad · Mar 12, 2022

Daniel said:
Good, pull up the drawbridge!

How much do you need for a dozen to break even with current feed prices?

The danger is everyone thinks everyone else is going out of the job and carries on because they think they will make a killing.

Daniel · Mar 12, 2022

midlandslad said:
How much do you need for a dozen to break even with current feed prices?

The danger is everyone thinks everyone else is going out of the job and carries on because they think they will make a killing.

I did those sums a week or two ago and now they’re totally out of date!

Soya at £520 for the autumn, new crop climbing, electricity due for renewal next month etc. I reckon most producers will need £1.15-£1.20 a dozen if they’re truly honest about their costs, include a proper labour figure etc. Most of us are currently getting 90-95p.

Chae1 · Mar 12, 2022

Steevo said:
Trouble is it’s a long term process. They have to book their next batch of chicks far ahead.

Same was said about the bird flu job. Farms that got culled by that couldn’t just restock again the following week…..the chicks just aren’t on the shelf to buy. Many had to wait months before they could get new stock apparently.

Why should they continue to lose money like lemmings though?

It's not fair or right.

chester · Mar 12, 2022

Having just bought a third of next years fert should I being selling a third of harvest 23 to fix a profit. Looking at the futures July 23 is £237 which would, I think it would leave a profit despite the high fert price. It may be academic at the moment as I doubt anyone would give me a price do Nov 23.

Steevo · Mar 12, 2022

chester said:
Having just bought a third of next years fert should I being selling a third of harvest 23 to fix a profit. Looking at the futures July 23 is £237 which would, I think it would leave a profit despite the high fert price. It may be academic at the moment as I doubt anyone would give me a price do Nov 23.

I wouldn’t unless I took some cover that would allow me to benefit from price rises when/if they happen.

Fert is at the top of the live market now. But imo grain markets for next year are in total denial and still have their head in the sand, fingers in their ears and are shouting “La la la!”.

The world has been encouraged to be very short-termist. Price don’t change until the crap really hits the fan.

chester · Mar 12, 2022

Are the fert boys saying the same thing about us?

yellow belly · Mar 12, 2022

new crop futures 250 nov22 so 240 ex in the south more in the north
imho without grain in the shed hold
is this high enough
issues are will high prices lead to a reduction in livestock in the uk or will all meat eggs milk prices rise to ensue production on a world basis
usa crop condition not good but australia has plenty of rain
will high fertiliser cost reduce total production ,yield and area

my stratagy since 2008 is hold till it is in the shed
on average this has proved better than selling some forward in some years it makes no difference insome it is better presold but the few years when it goes up big out way the other by quite a margin especially

current offers this week friday feed wheat 297 but future closed higher after that

jendan · Mar 12, 2022

Daniel said:
I did those sums a week or two ago and now they’re totally out of date!

Soya at £520 for the autumn, new crop climbing, electricity due for renewal next month etc. I reckon most producers will need £1.15-£1.20 a dozen if they’re truly honest about their costs, include a proper labour figure etc. Most of us are currently getting 90-95p.

We used to sell eggs on the doorstep at £2 dozen in the early 1980s.

texelburger · Mar 12, 2022

Daniel said:
Depends where you are in your flock cycle, our next flocks are already in rear, but obviously producers who were due to restock in the autumn or later will be able to cancel.

It takes time for these things to play out, it will probably end in a big shortage of eggs and pork, huge price rises and everyone restocking in a bust and boom cycle. Whereas if the retailers weren’t so short termist they would be covering feed and energy costs now to keep production levels steady.

I think our local chicken meat processors pay their growers according to the price of feed to maintain supply,ie if feed shoots up in cost then the growers get more.

VIP · Mar 12, 2022

We have seen a huge spike in prices “thanks” to some awful one off event. Impossible to say when this turns around, but when it does there will be a lot of folk asking “what were we thinking

“. Farmers saying they are holding out for £400 for wht forget their biggest customers are their fellow farmers….these prices are not sustainable. Neither is fert/oil/labour.

Secret Agronomist · Mar 12, 2022

ewald said:
Most tickets are not bought by business people used to thinking about odds - they are bought by dreamers buying £1 of hope on a Saturday evening.....besides, this time it might be me........

Probably a more sensible investment than AN at £925

I only buy 1 if euro millions is over 40 million. Any less than that it's not worth the hassle

benny6910 · Mar 12, 2022

Secret Agronomist said:
I only buy 1 if euro millions is over 40 million. Any less than that it's not worth the hassle

I only buy if it’s over 100 million. I’d be anoyed if I had to split anything lower than that with other winners

Combinables Price Tracker

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Up to 25%

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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