Combinables Price Tracker

Pan mixer · Nov 25, 2022

Clive said:
so people are not eating ?

food is not optional, 8 billion people all need to consume circa 2000 kcal a day no matter what

what’s really happening is supply / demand is just changing and moving

People (in this country and more specifically our shop customers) are not eating so much meat as it is too expensive for their strained budgets, they have to keep up the energy bills, mortgage, 2 car finance etc.

With the pigmeat job our COP is circa 230p, we are getting about 196p but Johnny foreigner is sending it over here at 165p. We won't be making any money out of pigs until the price of wheat in £ per tonne is similar to the deadweight price of pork in p per kg, way to go yet.

20% plus reduction in the sow herd will work through to the kill figures eventually here, there would be a couple of years lag, more or less before anyone could expand enough to eat the excess cereals in the pig world.

hens will be a shorter lag of course.

reports from all over the place about the reduction in cow numbers too, an even longer lag.

gone up the hill · Nov 25, 2022

Clive said:
supply vs demand does work …… trouble is your looking locally and it’s a international market

for example - egg contracts are circa 106p so loosing money vs a 126p cop …… uk producers mothball and retails are forced to import to satisfy demand (which has not changed and now exceeds supply) imports are costing retail 190p

what do you think happens next ? retailers can now pay more than 126 but less than 190 to producers and will obviously do so as they won’t pay more than they need to

same applies to meat / milk and any commodity WHEN you look beyond the uk being the only source

Well Sainsburys is running a promo for Xmas for lamb legs..

Its half the normal price and NZ lamb that has been shipped half way around the world...

If you really think prices of meat/ eggs etc are going to rise to cover high grain etc prices then i think you are in for one hell of a shock before long!

Sam Partridge · Nov 25, 2022

Wheat deleivered to Devon grain will get £255. Barley £232. Futures suggest a huge £2 extra if you wait until May

lloyd · Nov 25, 2022

gone up the hill said:
Well Sainsburys is running a promo for Xmas for lamb legs..

Good deal on Baileys too.

tullah · Nov 25, 2022

So unfortunately this lag with meat and egg prices is eventually going to cause a huge drop in supply followed by increase in prices to stabilise things. Maybe those that can afford to keep their numbers or even gamble and expand and ride the storm will come out on top.

jh. · Nov 25, 2022

Import everything and wave the clean green flag even harder. Who cares that we are sending billions out the country which will never come back because we produce f**k all . Just look at rishi , Boris leaves and he's on sky news supporting fracking to help get UK a bit more self sufficient, finally gets the PM job so bans fracking and apparently signs up for American gas. Every industry gets culled in the country . It's our turn .

fieldfarmer · Nov 25, 2022

gone up the hill said:
Feed company's/ merchants apparently losing so much business now due to so many pig and poultry farmers being pushed out of business that they are cold calling cattle farmers to try and talk them into buying some grain/ feed as they have so much unwanted grain on their books!

Talk of Barley just over £220 ton but very likely to drop a lot more.

Plenty of talk of demand destruction on here the last few months and looks like its now happening!

So a feed company has a rep who is actually doing his job, working hard to sell feed, wow!
When export price is met for grain don't be surprised when they start importing the meat back by the boatload as they are in a smaller way with eggs, yes I would like to load more lorries at the current price than put it in the diet feeder but I've more cattle around than ever before and very optimistic.

fieldfarmer · Nov 25, 2022

Just to add knowing you're area they could be trying to sell the ordered wheat on there books from the very big shoots that have shut and stopped feeding.

Clive · Nov 25, 2022

lloyd said:
Of course they are eating Clive but they dont have to eat meat.
The diet in China of the typical person altered as they became richer .
If their economy falters then their diet might too.

you missed this post above yours I assume ? There is more demand for meat that ever and its growing

there is also more people on this planet than ever - and thats also growing

It's just that its a global market so where the supply to satisfy demand comes from changes

Combinables Price Tracker

If I've ever succumbed to smugness over what I thought was a good forward sale, it has almost always been wiped off by the time the lorries are actually loaded. The Trade are not in the business of offering you more money forward than they expect to be able to get the grain for, when you chicken...

thefarmingforum.co.uk

7610 super q · Nov 25, 2022

High grain prices !!!! It's £260, not £2600 / ton.

And no shortage of new John Deeres flooding out of TAG ( In a livestock county ).

Baby jebers on a moped.

I'm so annoyed I've had to use exclamation marks.

Lincsman · Nov 25, 2022

lloyd said:
There is some good news out there.
Great black friday deals on a Samsung A53.

Just got a A33 from samsung direct... get £70 off with LIDL70 code so £259,

5G, 2 year warranty and 48 hour battery and waterproof for 30 mins at 1 meter deep

Clive · Nov 25, 2022

Clive said:
you missed this post above yours I assume ? There is more demand for meat that ever and its growing

there is also more people on this planet than ever - and thats also growing

It's just that its a global market so where the supply to satisfy demand comes from changes

Combinables Price Tracker

If I've ever succumbed to smugness over what I thought was a good forward sale, it has almost always been wiped off by the time the lorries are actually loaded. The Trade are not in the business of offering you more money forward than they expect to be able to get the grain for, when you chicken...

thefarmingforum.co.uk

anyone remind me of milk price increase in % terms over the last 9 months ?

Clive · Nov 25, 2022

gone up the hill said:
Well Sainsburys is running a promo for Xmas for lamb legs..

Its half the normal price and NZ lamb that has been shipped half way around the world...

If you really think prices of meat/ eggs etc are going to rise to cover high grain etc prices then i think you are in for one hell of a shock before long!

exactly - NZ are supplying the demand at a lower price ! lack of demand is not the issue, the issue is competition that is able to undercut you

Clive · Nov 25, 2022

tullah said:
So unfortunately this lag with meat and egg prices is eventually going to cause a huge drop in supply followed by increase in prices to stabilise things. Maybe those that can afford to keep their numbers or even gamble and expand and ride the storm will come out on top.

usually sound business to be doing then opposite to what most others are doing yes

Higher egg prices in the next few months are inevitable now if imports are costing near 85p more than uk contract levels - just a time lag, lucky (finance aside). such production systems are easy to switch on / off ........ unlike arable production where it's a 10 months cycle

Will Blackburn · Nov 25, 2022

Clive said:
exactly - NZ are supplying the demand at a lower price ! lack of demand is not the issue, the issue is competition that is able to undercut you

Eggs are not supplied from Italy at cheaper price, that‘s not competition that’s market manipulation.

Clive · Nov 25, 2022

Will Blackburn said:
Eggs are not supplied from Italy at cheaper price, that‘s not competition that’s market manipulation.

who is manipulating the lamb market ? surely NZ lamb is bought simply on price vs UK produced ?

My point however is low UK lamb price is not victim of demand if the demand is being supplied by NZ farmers ? its merely victim of cheap competition

Will Blackburn · Nov 25, 2022

Clive said:
anyone remind me of milk price increase in % terms over the last 9 months ?

50%, with Arla involved in the UK market the whole sector benefits. If it hadn’t it would have turned out like the egg sector. Even so there have been empty shelves in parts of the cheese aisle.

e3120 · Nov 25, 2022

Clive said:
who is manipulating the lamb market ? surely NZ lamb is bought simply on price vs UK produced ?

My point however is low UK lamb price is not victim of demand if the demand is being supplied by NZ farmers ? its merely victim of cheap competition

NZ lamb isn't any cheaper landed, but its value to the retailers is to make the point that it's out there. The loss they incur on it is quickly recovered by the market suppression at home.

Clive · Nov 25, 2022

e3120 said:
NZ lamb isn't any cheaper landed, but its value to the retailers is to make the point that it's out there. The loss they encur on it is quickly recovered by the market suppression at home.

surely thats the kind of thing the competition commission exists to deal with ?

Daniel · Nov 25, 2022

This is where the UK laying flock size has got to:

Egg prices have to rise, but I think egg producers are one of the gobbiest sectors of the ag industry, and probably the best organised media wise. BFREPA retain the services of a specialist media and comms chap who sits in his lair directing journalists to the right farmers for newspaper, telly, radio and so on.

And even so it’s been a monumental struggle, the retailers will fight tooth and claw because if we win, then every other sector will try their luck, pigs, cattle, veg Heinz you name it.

As for wheat consumption, 5,000,000 hens would eat about 155,000 tons of wheat a year. So it’s significant but it wouldn’t move the market on its own.

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