Combinables Price Tracker

[Bramble]

surely thats the kind of thing the competition commission exists to deal with ?

Not sure that’s something you could ever prove was anti competitive.

A supermarket would argue that they are offering consumers more choice, if the supermarket chooses to sell that product at a loss (don’t know if they do or not) that’s their problem. If the by-product of this action is that domestic prices are suppressed a bit the CC aren’t going to care.

Not really much different to millers buying German milling wheat or Canadian hard wheat. Good position to be in if you can buy a small amount of a commodity to oversupply a domestic market. The loss you may make on importing something should be more than outweighed by the savings you make on buying domestic product cheaply.

 

[7610 super q]

This is where the UK laying flock size has got to: View attachment 1078536

Egg prices have to rise, but I think egg producers are one of the gobbiest sectors of the ag industry, and probably the best organised media wise. BFREPA retain the services of a specialist media and comms chap who sits in his lair directing journalists to the right farmers for newspaper, telly, radio and so on.

And even so it’s been a monumental struggle, the retailers will fight tooth and claw because if we win, then every other sector will try their luck, pigs, cattle, veg Heinz you name it.

As for wheat consumption, 5,000,000 hens would eat about 155,000 tons of wheat a year. So it’s significant but it wouldn’t move the market on its own.

And it's not something that can be just turned on again. If producers do decide to restock, they'll need pullets. And there may not be any pullets about, if there's no perceived demand for them. Supermarkets have created their own shitstorm that could take 18 months or more to recover from. That's assuming they give a lot more for eggs............

 

[Bramble]

This is where the UK laying flock size has got to: View attachment 1078536

Egg prices have to rise, but I think egg producers are one of the gobbiest sectors of the ag industry, and probably the best organised media wise. BFREPA retain the services of a specialist media and comms chap who sits in his lair directing journalists to the right farmers for newspaper, telly, radio and so on.

And even so it’s been a monumental struggle, the retailers will fight tooth and claw because if we win, then every other sector will try their luck, pigs, cattle, veg Heinz you name it.

As for wheat consumption, 5,000,000 hens would eat about 155,000 tons of wheat a year. So it’s significant but it wouldn’t move the market on its own.

Is there any data showing losses to Avian flu since early 2022?

 

[e3120]

Not sure that’s something you could ever prove was anti competitive.

A supermarket would argue that they are offering consumers more choice, if the supermarket chooses to sell that product at a loss (don’t know if they do or not) that’s their problem. If the by-product of this action is that domestic prices are suppressed a bit the CC aren’t going to care.

Not really much different to millers buying German milling wheat or Canadian hard wheat. Good position to be in if you can buy a small amount of a commodity to oversupply a domestic market. The loss you may make on importing something should be more than outweighed by the savings you make on buying domestic product cheaply.

Well put. Plus, can you imagine the headlines/political headlocks if the CC got themselves to a position of instructing a rise in food prices?

 

[Daniel]

Is there any data showing losses to Avian flu since early

Since September this year we have lost 750k laying birds across the UK. Can’t recall last years figures but I think it was over a million laying birds, some of which will have been restocked.

The figures are probably available on Google

 

[digger64]

NZ lamb isn't any cheaper landed, but its value to the retailers is to make the point that it's out there. The loss they incur on it is quickly recovered by the market suppression at home.

With monopolies controlling the uk/euro grocery market (the international cereals market is bigger than them ) and having the means /capital to do this anyone who thinks supply and demand works nowadays is seriously deluded .
If you look at how the Irish owned abattoirs and UK owned pig processors worked the market prices on both sides on both sides of the border to suit themselves just by instantly moving supply (and processing capacity to chaper trading environments ) source within their own group of companies under their ownership to the appropriate rising market .
This was really really easy for them when we had no border controls ,free movement of labour and a common currency unit .

 

[Clive]

Not sure that’s something you could ever prove was anti competitive.

A supermarket would argue that they are offering consumers more choice, if the supermarket chooses to sell that product at a loss (don’t know if they do or not) that’s their problem. If the by-product of this action is that domestic prices are suppressed a bit the CC aren’t going to care.

Not really much different to millers buying German milling wheat or Canadian hard wheat. Good position to be in if you can buy a small amount of a commodity to oversupply a domestic market. The loss you may make on importing something should be more than outweighed by the savings you make on buying domestic product cheaply.

I would suggest it's abuse of a monopolistic position or cartel behavior, whilst that maybe in consumers short term interest and benefit its ultimately leads to higher prices when completion no longer exists

 

[nonemouse]

surely thats the kind of thing the competition commission exists to deal with ?

That nz lamb is being sold cheaper in uk supermarkets cheaper than my friends can buy in NZ supermarkets, never mind the cost of shipping it across the globe.

 

[thorpe]

That nz lamb is being sold cheaper in uk supermarkets cheaper than my friends can buy in NZ supermarkets, never mind the cost of shipping it across the globe.

that goes for dairy as well . the whole nz market is geared up for export not the domestic mkt.

 

[Only]

Yes it should be supply V demand but that does not work in most meat/ livestock sectors!

Egg/ meat prices will not rise to cover increased production costs that is for sure!

Less livestock = less grain needed which will = much lower grain prices.

Eggs will

 

[yellow belly]

anyone remind me of milk price increase in % terms over the last 9 months ?

I know a dairy farmer who gave up at 16 p per litre a couple of years ago under 100 cows milking then
another who has a contract this a couple of weeks ago at 52 p per litre every other day collection 25000 litres
not strictly comparable

if super markets do not pay up then with stewardship ++ the options to put temporary grass or cropping land into give a net return over £150 per acre and get a part time job will become compelling

permenant cropped land not so good but do an environmentle impact assessment and convert where it can be done

what is certain is that a farm still has to reduce the costs and be efficient for maximum return
this has always been the case

 

[yellow belly]

Yes it should be supply V demand but that does not work in most meat/ livestock sectors!

Egg/ meat prices will not rise to cover increased production costs that is for sure!

Less livestock = less grain needed which will = much lower grain prices.

Lower grain prices bring the efficient producer back Ito profit
or the USA model
when maize was very low prices (under 50 $ a tonne )in the corn belt the farmers cooperated together and started building ethanol plants to process their very low priced maize using the waist product to feed livestock locally
this attracted govenment surport and the ethanol mandate utilising the corn
this new use now consumes 30% of the corn

 

[yellow belly]

Not sure that’s something you could ever prove was anti competitive.

A supermarket would argue that they are offering consumers more choice, if the supermarket chooses to sell that product at a loss (don’t know if they do or not) that’s their problem. If the by-product of this action is that domestic prices are suppressed a bit the CC aren’t going to care.

Not really much different to millers buying German milling wheat or Canadian hard wheat. Good position to be in if you can buy a small amount of a commodity to oversupply a domestic market. The loss you may make on importing something should be more than outweighed by the savings you make on buying domestic product cheaply.

German and Canadian milling wheat does not have a uk produced equivalent
uk bread wheat makes different bread
the uk can produce soft milling wheat that is as good as any in the world very little soft wheat imported into the uk

 

[ajd132]

German and Canadian milling wheat does not have a uk produced equivalent
uk bread wheat makes different bread
the uk can produce soft milling wheat that is as good as any in the world very little soft wheat imported into the uk

Agree, we can’t actually provide them with the product they need, or enough of it.

 

[Green oak]

I prefer a Nan Bread. Or a soft wheat wrap to put a filling of my choice in. And weekends maybe a pita bread.

 

[principal skinner]

Agree, we can’t actually provide them with the product they need, or enough of it.

We can supply, German E or Canadian Red but it comes at a cost, if the contract pays enough I will grow it.
Imported German milling wheat circa £370 currently (delivered)

 

[Clive]

We can supply, German E or Canadian Red but it comes at a cost, if the contract pays enough I will grow it.
Imported German milling wheat circa £370 currently (delivered)

we grew german spec E wheats for a few years - the premiums did not keep up with the extra N cost though and certainly wouldn’t at current prices

 

[ajd132]

we grew german spec E wheats for a few years - the premiums did not keep up with the extra N cost though and certainly wouldn’t at current prices

At current prices I really cannot make group 1 milling wheat stack up. Poor varieties, considerably more N, more risk. Premium needs to be over £80/t to think about it. I worked our roughly if I hit spec 9 out of 10 years, 1 year of feed quality milling cost wheat would wipe out the 9 years of premium.

 

[Clive]

At current prices I really cannot make group 1 milling wheat stack up. Poor varieties, considerably more N, more risk. Premium needs to be over £80/t to think about it. I worked our roughly if I hit spec 9 out of 10 years, 1 year of feed quality milling cost wheat would wipe out the 9 years of premium.

same here, 100% feeds now

 

[T Hectares]

same here, 100% feeds now

I’ve gone 50% gp4 hards this year, been growing Gp3’s pretty successfully for a long period but their weakness on Septoria is really exposed without CTL so they are too risky to grow along with their yield deficit to feeds