livestock 1
Member
I’ve been in that process for a while tooI went in. I admit I’m unusual!
I’ve been in that process for a while tooI went in. I admit I’m unusual!
Well it looks like those have done something to prepare, I have a Lifetime's experience of farming and have made many changes over the years to thrive rather than just survive, being a dairy farm within a semi rural area brings it's own challenges, I gave up milking in 1999, having done virtually every single milking for the last 10 years, as I could see the writing on the wall for those hemmed in by houses etc and milk quotas were worth a lot of money which was obviously going to drop, we have evolved over the years away from food to equine, a market that pays, we have advantages over a remote farm in that respect but then they have advantages that we don't.Ah yes ‘prepare for the end of bps’ with your vast knowledge on farming what would you advise a hill farmer to have done to prepare?
Most have sold their cows cut back the sheep and got a job elsewhere
Some have sold land
I don’t like the comparison between people that have shift jobs and go on strike to people who work seven days a week but there you go
You clearly aren’t, because it doesn’t effect you. But a hill farming families business who’s system doesn’t fit the current narrative, could well feel different.what exactly are we mourning the loss of ? From what i can see uk ag has been mostly unviable and financially unsustainable for the last 20 years ?
is a situation where a AHDB report a couple year ago suggested over 80% of farm businesses were lois making without subsidies something worth trying to hold on to ? !
if an industry ever needed ground up fundamental change it’s british agriculture
I think winter in Hampshire is perhaps a little different to Shap, probably half as long for startersI think something has changed this year, I’ve had youngsters ringing me up out of the blue for lambing. One rocked up in the yard asking for work last week.
Varying degrees of competency of course but there’s certainly more about.
Either that or word has got out about my wife’s lambing cakes
uk ag industry is on the brink of massive change now i think - it’s going to happen fast and in many cases painful or even terminal
My landlords agent repeatedly tells me you cannot cut Legume Fallow for forage. Is he telling porkies ?Except that it's paying for herbal leys and legume fallow at £382 and £670 per ha
You can cut your legume fallow in the first year of establishment so there's your winter forage taken care of.
What's going to happen?
Change the way they farm. Sell all the young stock before winter, out winter cows on deferred/bale grazing. Send ewes away if possible for example.What will the small hill producer with say 300 ewes and 60 suckler cows do when straw is in very short supply?
Sounds like a good time to sell TFF if there will be half the farmers to chat about farming in 5 years time!My guess - I reckon we loose at least 33% (maybe more) arable land to SFi / BNG / solar / other developments - this ultimately means 33% less inputs, 33% less machinery, 33% less people etc
we have a perfect storm alongside this as well ........
Put all those together against a background where capital value of farms and land is pretty much at all time highs and you can't blame anyone for thinking they are best selling up or in some cases being forced to by lenders even !
- lack of new entrants
- high farmer average age
- disastrously unprofitable last year for many (cheap crops grown with expensive inputs)
- poor weather making next year look as bad or worse for many already
- high interest rates squeezing overdrafts and making investment unattractive
- Massive inflation of new kit prices making replacement impossible for many
- Much increased R&M cost of equipment
- Input price inflation
- Banks not so keen to lend as serviceability poor for most
- Investment returns from alternatives much better than farming and lower risk
- tax bills from a good harvest '22 due recently
- cheap imports well below UK COP
In short my prediction is a pretty big contraction of UK ag supply and farmer numbers over the next 5 years - possibly 50% !
My guess - I reckon we loose at least 33% (maybe more) arable land to SFi / BNG / solar / other developments - this ultimately means 33% less inputs, 33% less machinery, 33% less people etc
we have a perfect storm alongside this as well ........
Put all those together against a background where capital value of farms and land is pretty much at all time highs and you can't blame anyone for thinking they are best selling up or in some cases being forced to by lenders even !
- lack of new entrants
- high farmer average age
- disastrously unprofitable last year for many (cheap crops grown with expensive inputs)
- poor weather making next year look as bad or worse for many already
- high interest rates squeezing overdrafts and making investment unattractive
- Massive inflation of new kit prices making replacement impossible for manyp p
- Much increased R&M cost of equipment
- Input price inflation
- Banks not so keen to lend as serviceability now v poor for most
- Investment returns from alternatives much better than farming and lower risk
- tax bills from a good harvest '22 due recently
- cheap imports well below UK COP flooding out of Russia etc
In short my prediction is a pretty big contraction of UK ag supply and farmer numbers over the next 5 years - possibly 50% !
Sounds like a good time to sell TFF if there will be half the farmers to chat about farming in 5 years time!
I have to be honest I'm getting ready to get out. Im a bit bored of farming. 3 more years to wrap up debts and mortgages and I think my cashflow is going to better employed elsewhere. I'll be 50 and feel I need a change of direction, feels a bit stale now. Also £850 fertiliser and £145 corn is not for me
Only in the first year of establishment. But it's rotational so if you keep moving it every year, you can cut AFAIK.My landlords agent repeatedly tells me you cannot cut Legume Fallow for forage. Is he telling porkies ?
You clearly aren’t, because it doesn’t effect you. But a hill farming families business who’s system doesn’t fit the current narrative, could well feel different.
Totally agree, there’s a wider variety of better paid employment down here though so more competition for people.I think winter in Hampshire is perhaps a little different to Shap, probably half as long for starters
I’ve told my fathers and brothers that, all ‘sleeping’ partners in the farm business. I am the only one that farms, but feel I should run the big decisions past them.For perspective there ar 10yr bonds doing 6% return right now - ZERO risk
so if you have 1 million invested in farming (that's not exactly a big farm or much kit these days). if you are not making a regular 60K pa you are worse off ! (not forgetting bonds don't involve setting a 6am alarm clock everyday or worrying about rain !)
Frankly you REALLY have to love farming to WANT to do it right now - how sad is that
You will only get AHL2 in one year and AHL1 the next, there's no real way you can deliver AHL2 and AHL1 on the same land parcel in a 12 month period.Taken the plunge and put 50% in. Offer signed yesterday. It’s cost the local machinery boys a combine (3 farmers clubbing together) and for me personally a tractor and loader. 50% less fertiliser and chemicals for the next 3 years as well and no casual help needed at harvest. AHL2 into AHL1 is paying £644/ac and that’s without any of the other things like no insecticide and direct drilling. You’re mad not to go into this at these rates.