How long before biggest dealers pack up

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
I saw a jd r series with 12 row beet drill on way back from mart Saturday....so top of range at least 145hp?....I suppose you need that to get an operator these days?

thing is 30 years ago an 85 hp tractor costing a tenth (?) woulda been on the job

how does the depreciation stack up?

But it's not like the 80's where we had a tractor size suitable for every job.
On most farms the machinery investment only justifies one tractor, and yes, I am guilty of using a 9 foot topper and a 4m chain harrow behind 200hp.
 
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redsloe

Member
Location
Cornwall
Judging by the fact that Chandlers have just invoiced me £850 for Labour on a 600 hour service, I expect they will be going for a while if people are willing to pay it!!
Will certainly be having a word with them when I get back off holiday
Was quoted £1150 to do a 500 hr service on a handler. I bought the genuine filters for £250 and asked an ex fitter for the company to come do it and he charged me £120 for labour.
Did a more thorough job too!
 

Welderloon

Member
Trade
Looking to the short, intermediate & long term future the transition from current traditional manned to semi automated, true fully automated/remotely operated equipment & the introduction of AI tech to design & manufacture processes & multiple different power sourcing units also suits the central hub system, it will be impossible for existing 'dealer' networks to keep up with the pace of technology being proposed without manufacturers having their hands on the wheel.
The AI driven agricultural world will look far different to what currently exists.
 

Boomerang

Member
Judging by the fact that Chandlers have just invoiced me £850 for Labour on a 600 hour service, I expect they will be going for a while if people are willing to pay it!!
Will certainly be having a word with them when I get back off holiday
Chandlers turnover of 150milllion and an operating profit of 4million
And after interest payments a profit of 2.5m
They wouldn't need much to go wrong for problems . 3% profit margin is crap.
 

bluebell

Member
I made my first visit to americia in 1977, ( first of the package deal holidays to americia), 2 weeks in california, first weeks spent doing the "tourist stuff" of trips to disney world, univesal studios, etc, second week, my father had a hire car, a smooky ford torino, like unckle buck movie, with a door a foot thick? We looked round some new motordealerships, the point im trying to make, was back in good old UK back then in 1977, many if not most of the new car/commercial dealerships were small, family owned, but out in americia then, they were vast, with lots of stock? Today, we have caught up, like that in america, take toyota and ford, back in 1977 we bought our first new van off our local toyota dealship, owned and run by a local man who lived in our village, now toyota in my part of the world (essex is a plc, with multiple dealerships, and those dealerships are modern well stocked and manned costing millions), ford back in 1977, in essex yes we had a couple of large dealerships, with large smart premises, but also, one man, family owned, they now have gone and the dealerships are multi franchised plcs, with many millions invested?
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
With the way things are and no improvement on the horizon ,how long will it be before a huge dealer shuts up shop.they mostly got very large expensive premises and massive stocks of parts and machines but they will be suffering the same as the smaller dealers.seems to be a weekly occurrence of dealers closing shop.Deere,agco and cnh won’t subsidise these company’s for ever.have seen on social media earlier about a huge jd dealer having possible issues already.
nick…
It is likely that the biggest dealers like the biggest farms, no matter how big their debts with reason, will be supported by the big brands and even have management inserted by the brands to make sure they keep on moving metal. It’s the smaller dealers with limited capital and financial security that will go to the wall, just as they always have done. The bigger dealers will be encouraged strongly [forced?] to take over those areas and sometimes those companies to become ever more ‘efficient’.

The issue with JD dealers may be that JD load them up with stock without payment for months on end but must pay when a unit is retailed. Great. Until things slow down and stock sits there until the payment deadline date and it’s still unsold and a whole batch of machinery payments are taken out by direct debit. No doubt the manufacturer will still support them if they are dealers that shift metal in quantity but will then have their hooks in the business.

The problem with moving metal is not the new stuff but how to finance or sell all the part exchanges. Fine in a buoyant market, because either it is retailed in-house or it is traded to other dealers who need stock. When sales slow to a trickle though, the used and new machinery all starts stacking up as do the debts that finance all of it. Imagine having five or six combines and ten tractors and maybe three SPFH’s all under five years old in stock tying up a couple of million Pounds. There comes a point where they just can’t sell any more new units because they can’t afford to buy back the part exchanges.

It’s not simple. Not like a shop counter where all the goods go one way and nothing is ever bought back off the customer in part exchange.
 

carbonfibre farmer

Member
Arable Farmer
I saw a jd r series with 12 row beet drill on way back from mart Saturday....so top of range at least 145hp?....I suppose you need that to get an operator these days?

thing is 30 years ago an 85 hp tractor costing a tenth (?) woulda been on the job

how does the depreciation stack up?

'Green eye' on my neighbour I reckon he's got circa £600k's worth kit on 400acs

spin 'rambles' whilst waiting for ewe to have second after pulling first full breach🙄
Good job you don't try to add up the "scrap" when you come down here 😳🤐 more 10's than 100's 🙈😄
 
Location
salop
Main dealers will not exists in years to come, manufacturer's will have central hub, all tractors will be leased only, you will ring up and order a new one, it will be sent out, mobile fitters in vans will service them.
Any breakdowns will be returned to base and loan tractor till repair is done,
Simple as that really
I think John deere will be the 1st. You will not be able to own a JD tractor , you will just rent it from them. Its nearly there now, If you dont have access to the software for a tractor, you just own very expensive scrap metal.
 

hally

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
cumbria
It's probably replaced 4 other depots they have closed. so maybe not as inefficient as you think.

Can get anything delivered next day on Amazon. Manufacturers need to sort out similar ordering/dispatch systems.
No they are very efficient. It took them less than an hour from looking at my 6 month old honda atv that is losing a lot of it's paint, that it wasn't covered under warranty😭
 
It will depend on the business model these companies use.

I have had people tell me the CAT business model is to sell you a machine as an asset and then make the money from you selling you spares. I'm not saying this is right or wrong but it is one way of offering a product or service in a marketplace.

If JD opt for a subscription model where you just pay X per month for the use of a tractor, combine and planter and after 3000 hours they are taken away and replaced, maybe someone would go in for that, depends what kind of deal can be done??
 

Ffermer Bach

Member
Livestock Farmer
I think if you look at there sales data numbers, countries without subs the sLes volume is low...like oz.

Ant...
admittedly it was 35 years plus ago I was in Australia, but the thing I did notice then was the farmers didn't spend money on kit etc, everything (on the two farms I worked on, broad acre sheep and corn in the wheat belt WA, and rice in the Murray irrigation area) was kept going on a budget, where as in the UK it was all new kit.
 

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