Milk Price Tracker

Martyn

Member
Location
South west
Reckon you can fill half a lorry? Family constantly asking when I'm milking again so guess I'm good for the other half!
I recon I could manage to half fill one of these😁
Screenshot_20220712-195531.png
 

frederick

Member
Location
south west
What price are people using for January-December 2023? I'm on a constituents based contract, would 40ppl be about right? Some genuine responses would be really helpful
I would think 40ppl is probably a safe pessimistic forecast.

I would probably run my Arla 4.5 3.6 price forecast nearer mid 40s for a budget but remain aware that I could easily be 100k over the top.
 

Farmer Keith

Member
Location
North Cumbria
It looks inevitable that demand will drop off, our saving grace may well be that production is significantly down can only see it dropping further still by the amount of vacancy’s on farm at the moment.
 

Horn&corn

Member
This week's kite podcast is an interesting listen on future milk price.

The current threat is not increased supply but the size of demand drop.

Traditional big international buyers still have the same budget so can only afford less product.
Re: Kite podcast. I didn’t understand how keeping the price where it is will be better for milk producers rather than further increases. Is it because it’ll be better for the processors they advise? I’m sure a few more pence here would be welcomed!
 

frederick

Member
Location
south west
Re: Kite podcast. I didn’t understand how keeping the price where it is will be better for milk producers rather than further increases. Is it because it’ll be better for the processors they advise? I’m sure a few more pence here would be welcomed!
No the problem is further increases will result in greater customer refusal of dairy.

More increases in milk price would make milk oversupply much more significant faster and as soon as we get into oversupply our price will be hammered.

Oversupply this time round won't be due to increased milk output it will be due to demand dropping below current supply.
 

bigw

Member
Location
Scotland
I would have thought that a milk price sub 40p would see a fair decline in volumes at the current cost base. Q1&2 will be when things will start to bite, cheesemakers wont be able to finance big stocks of cheese.
 

Sid

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
South Molton
No the problem is further increases will result in greater customer refusal of dairy
Milk is still cheap, it's the cheeses, yogurts, fancy foods etc which are suffering. Consumers are moving down a category or 2!

Same with everything.

Where as mince was harder to move it's the goto atm rather than steaks as people trade back.

As much as the state on the lamb price tracker they need £x a lamb to cover costs, if the consumer won't pay it doesn't matter what it costs you to produce, only answer is don't produce it!


I was talking to a couple today, lawyer and highup in insurance ,£60 meal in pub last night, said it was steep. Even they have down traded to camping rather than hotels due to pressures on finances.
 

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