livestock 1
Member
I’ve been in that process for a while too
Reduction in arable acreages
- Thread starter Kevtherev
- Start date
what exactly are we mourning the loss of ? From what i can see uk ag has been mostly unviable and financially unsustainable for the last 20 years ?
is a situation where a AHDB report a couple year ago suggested over 80% of farm businesses were making without subsidies something worth trying to hold on to ? !
if an industry ever needed ground up fundamental change it’s british agriculture
is a situation where a AHDB report a couple year ago suggested over 80% of farm businesses were making without subsidies something worth trying to hold on to ? !
if an industry ever needed ground up fundamental change it’s british agriculture
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Well it looks like those have done something to prepare, I have a Lifetime's experience of farming and have made many changes over the years to thrive rather than just survive, being a dairy farm within a semi rural area brings it's own challenges, I gave up milking in 1999, having done virtually every single milking for the last 10 years, as I could see the writing on the wall for those hemmed in by houses etc and milk quotas were worth a lot of money which was obviously going to drop, we have evolved over the years away from food to equine, a market that pays, we have advantages over a remote farm in that respect but then they have advantages that we don't.
I think you're pretty disrespectful of those that have " normal" jobs, I'm sure many of those folk look with envy at what you have and the freedom of being your own boss , the grass is not always greener on the other side though. No one owes us a living, life is what we make of it.
Spencer
Member
- Location
- North West
You clearly aren’t, because it doesn’t effect you. But a hill farming families business who’s system doesn’t fit the current narrative, could well feel different.
Spencer
Member
- Location
- North West
I think winter in Hampshire is perhaps a little different to Shap, probably half as long for startersI think something has changed this year, I’ve had youngsters ringing me up out of the blue for lambing. One rocked up in the yard asking for work last week.
Varying degrees of competency of course but there’s certainly more about.
Either that or word has got out about my wife’s lambing cakes
SilliamWhale
Member
What's going to happen?
- Location
- Northumberland
My landlords agent repeatedly tells me you cannot cut Legume Fallow for forage. Is he telling porkies ?
My guess - I reckon we loose at least 33% (maybe more) arable land to SFi / BNG / solar / other developments - this ultimately means 33% less inputs, 33% less machinery, 33% less people etc
we have a perfect storm alongside this as well ........
- lack of new entrants
- high farmer average age
- disastrously unprofitable last year for many (cheap crops grown with expensive inputs)
- poor weather making next year look as bad or worse for many already
- high interest rates squeezing overdrafts and making investment unattractive
- Massive inflation of new kit prices making replacement impossible for many
- Much increased R&M cost of equipment
- Input price inflation
- Banks not so keen to lend as serviceability now v poor for most
- Investment returns from alternatives much better than farming and lower risk
- tax bills from a good harvest '22 due recently
- cheap imports well below UK COP flooding out of Russia etc
In short my prediction is a pretty big contraction of UK ag supply and farmer numbers over the next 5 years - possibly 50% !
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- Location
- East Dartmoor, Devon
Change the way they farm. Sell all the young stock before winter, out winter cows on deferred/bale grazing. Send ewes away if possible for example.
kfpben
Member
- Location
- Mid Hampshire
Sounds like a good time to sell TFF if there will be half the farmers to chat about farming in 5 years time!
SilliamWhale
Member
I have to be honest I'm getting ready to get out. Im a bit bored of farming. 3 more years to wrap up debts and mortgages and I think my cashflow is going to better employed elsewhere. I'll be 50 and feel I need a change of direction, feels a bit stale now. Also £850 fertiliser and £145 corn is not for me.
But most of all I've been thinking of the "passing on" phase a bit and I think I need a better business to pass on than farming esp out in more remote parts of the country
most people get board of working hard and taking massive risk to just about scrape a living eventually ! I'm not bothered about farming particularly like I once was and that's not just an age thing. Just about every other business or industry I am involved in makes money so dam easy vs farming, it's a real eye opener as to just how hard farming is by comparison
I think our representation and leadership have allowed us to be led into a cul-de-sac of no return frankly, it's all probably too far gone to fix (in my lifetime at least) now
For perspective there ar 10yr bonds doing 6% return right now - ZERO risk
so if you have 1 million invested in farming (that's not exactly a big farm or much kit these days). if you are not making a regular 60K pa you are worse off ! (not forgetting bonds don't involve setting a 6am alarm clock everyday or worrying about rain !)
Frankly you REALLY have to love farming to WANT to do it right now - how sad is that
so if you have 1 million invested in farming (that's not exactly a big farm or much kit these days). if you are not making a regular 60K pa you are worse off ! (not forgetting bonds don't involve setting a 6am alarm clock everyday or worrying about rain !)
Frankly you REALLY have to love farming to WANT to do it right now - how sad is that
- Location
- Essex
Only in the first year of establishment. But it's rotational so if you keep moving it every year, you can cut AFAIK.
it will and does affect me, it already is doing
kfpben
Member
- Location
- Mid Hampshire
Totally agree, there’s a wider variety of better paid employment down here though so more competition for people.I think winter in Hampshire is perhaps a little different to Shap, probably half as long for starters
London is an hour and a half north east , Southampton 45 mins south. Plenty in between.
kfpben
Member
- Location
- Mid Hampshire
I’ve told my fathers and brothers that, all ‘sleeping’ partners in the farm business. I am the only one that farms, but feel I should run the big decisions past them.For perspective there ar 10yr bonds doing 6% return right now - ZERO risk
so if you have 1 million invested in farming (that's not exactly a big farm or much kit these days). if you are not making a regular 60K pa you are worse off ! (not forgetting bonds don't involve setting a 6am alarm clock everyday or worrying about rain !)
Frankly you REALLY have to love farming to WANT to do it right now - how sad is that
Their reaction is bugger that, you’ll just get fat and lazy
You will only get AHL2 in one year and AHL1 the next, there's no real way you can deliver AHL2 and AHL1 on the same land parcel in a 12 month period.