where do farmers think farming will be, in 5 years time

S

soapsud

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Dorset
som farmer said:
the only way we can raise prices, is to produce less, simple economics, supply/demand, and the reason the guv is pushing high tech, and productivity schemes,, more efficiency in their eyes = more cheaper production, and low prices.

if they cannot import enough, for various reasons, war famine weather disease, and they have knocked us back to hard, they are fecked.

but politicians don't think logically, if at all. And the farmers screaming about food security, are not thinking straight, why complain ?

SFI, and the general move to appease the climate zealots, is one of the best things to happen, to UK farmers for decades. Less production, means higher prices, simple.

we are under no obligation to feed the country, they have treated us with derision, why should we think we need to feed them ? That is the guv's duty, that they feck it up, is their problem, not ours.

we desperately need to get out of thinking, 'max production is the best', all that attitude is guv's way of ensuring cheap food. The truth is, less is better, for us, but not for the guv.
Click to expand...
I question the logic put up by farmers saying we shouldn't need the NFU and other organs to lobby for food security for two main reasons:

- critical mass or lose of self-sustaining infrastructure- once enough farmland ceases being productive, those few remaining will find it harder (unless they're low input - low output). So fewer materials, fewer people to service machines, and what few remain will find costs spiraling upwards.

- the government trusts the corporations to provide food. Corps are directed by profit not service. Remember the fuss in Jan 2023 when the supermarket shelves were empty? Let's see what the spanish and morocco salads are like this summer.
 
S

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
soapsud said:
I question the logic put up by farmers saying we shouldn't need the NFU and other organs to lobby for food security for two main reasons:

- critical mass or lose of self-sustaining infrastructure- once enough farmland ceases being productive, those few remaining will find it harder (unless they're low input - low output). So fewer materials, fewer people to service machines, and what few remain will find costs spiraling upwards.

- the government trusts the corporations to provide food. Corps are directed by profit not service. Remember the fuss in Jan 2023 when the supermarket shelves were empty? Let's see what the spanish and morocco salads are like this summer.
Click to expand...
but the corps are only concerned with profit, its really no difference to them, if its dear or cheap, they will still take their margin.

shows how simple minded the guv is, trusting them.

if the nfu were that good, why have so many left ?

If critical mass, disappears, as could easily happen, and guv cannot import enough food stuffs to satisfy demand, they are fecked.

but that is not our fault, it is guv's problem. The easiest answer, is bring back subs on production, certain if it was nice and profitable, there's plenty who could wind up production again.

and that is the only solution, upping production, the guv will have, if they cannot import enough.
 
Last edited:
Goweresque

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
melted welly said:
Marie Gougon the minister for agriculture and rural affairs will just have made her 113th announcement that there’s going to be an announcement at some point in the future about Scotgov agri policy post bps. She will include the usual buzzwords such as “sustainability”, ”strong economy”, “unique nature of Scotland”…….blah blah, no one listens.
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She'll also have promised that this time the 'ringfenced' ag budget will definitely 100% get all the funds back that they've spent on something else, just like she promised for the previous 4 years.........
 
ollie989898

ollie989898

Member
Location
Hanging from a twig, in a deep sleep.
kfpben said:
Honestly, much the same as it is now.
From a livestock point of view there is currently so much opportunity.
Click to expand...

That is an interesting view, what makes you say this? I mean, on my travels I see more farms that are clearly out of the game completely or no longer a major player due to retirement, etc, I can't speak for the entire country but there are clearly more folk getting out than getting in? :unsure:
 
F

Frank-the-Wool

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
The agricultural budget was fixed when we left the EU. It is therefore declining in value significantly as inflation bites.
Prices for most commodities are stagnant except beef and lamb, although clean beef prices are falling, mostly because the demand for steak in restaurants has dropped off.
The lamb/mutton price has been held up due to high demand since Easter and the end of Ramadan for which we must thank our ethnic customers.
Five years down the road it is likely that beef prices will remain good but not exceptional. lamb and mutton will remain strong for at least the next 2 to 3 years then imports will increase and domestic supply will be adequate.

Cost control will be the main factor in being profitable
 
ollie989898

ollie989898

Member
Location
Hanging from a twig, in a deep sleep.
Frank-the-Wool said:
The agricultural budget was fixed when we left the EU. It is therefore declining in value significantly as inflation bites.
Prices for most commodities are stagnant except beef and lamb, although clean beef prices are falling, mostly because the demand for steak in restaurants has dropped off.
The lamb/mutton price has been held up due to high demand since Easter and the end of Ramadan for which we must thank our ethnic customers.
Five years down the road it is likely that beef prices will remain good but not exceptional. lamb and mutton will remain strong for at least the next 2 to 3 years then imports will increase and domestic supply will be adequate.

Cost control will be the main factor in being profitable
Click to expand...

I'd argue all the government ever achieved fudging about and interfering with the agricultural industry/marketplace was put cash into the pockets of multinationals and cause over production.

It's the same in all other industries- people who are good at what they do will succeed and make money.
 
ollie989898

ollie989898

Member
Location
Hanging from a twig, in a deep sleep.
David. said:
We shall have had another F&M outbreak in 5yrs time, it will have arrived in unchecked imported meat.
Click to expand...

Do you think any imported food product is physically checked? :unsure:

Also, do you think any UK exported food product is checked? :unsure:


The answer to the above is not really. If the paperwork is right then the stuff moves unimpeded. Very rarely are samples of product taken for testing. You'd be surprised at just what foods the UK is exporting and where it is going. The volume of international trade is so great that no one has a clue on how to even to begin to inspect this stuff. It will likely only be turned away if the paperwork is wrong.
 
cows sh#t me to tears

cows sh#t me to tears

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
southern riverina Australia
som farmer said:
the only way we can raise prices, is to produce less, simple economics, supply/demand, and the reason the guv is pushing high tech, and productivity schemes,, more efficiency in their eyes = more cheaper production, and low prices.

if they cannot import enough, for various reasons, war famine weather disease, and they have knocked us back to hard, they are fecked.

but politicians don't think logically, if at all. And the farmers screaming about food security, are not thinking straight, why complain ?

SFI, and the general move to appease the climate zealots, is one of the best things to happen, to UK farmers for decades. Less production, means higher prices, simple.

we are under no obligation to feed the country, they have treated us with derision, why should we think we need to feed them ? That is the guv's duty, that they feck it up, is their problem, not ours.

we desperately need to get out of thinking, 'max production is the best', all that attitude is guv's way of ensuring cheap food. The truth is, less is better, for us, but not for the guv.
Click to expand...
There is a fine line though. And once crossed that's it, no coming back.
Case in point. Dairy in Aus. Previously a major export industry. Shrunk significantly by government water policy, drought, old age and poor poor prices 15 years ago. Now the processors are scrambling for supply, prices are good as a result.
Problem is, to much stainless steel now so processors are shutting factories/ pulling out. International prices low, so supermarkets are importing cheaper product.
line crossed..No going back. Further contraction is guaranteed.
So. Cheaper food elsewhere. Won't be your government imporing it. It will be your supermarkets. Profit trumps everything else.
 
ollie989898

ollie989898

Member
Location
Hanging from a twig, in a deep sleep.
cows sh#t me to tears said:
There is a fine line though. And once crossed that's it, no coming back.
Case in point. Dairy in Aus. Previously a major export industry. Shrunk significantly by government water policy, drought, old age and poor poor prices 15 years ago. Now the processors are scrambling for supply, prices are good as a result.
Problem is, to much stainless steel now so processors are shutting factories/ pulling out. International prices low, so supermarkets are importing cheaper product.
line crossed..No going back. Further contraction is guaranteed.
So. Cheaper food elsewhere. Won't be your government imporing it. It will be your supermarkets. Profit trumps everything else.
Click to expand...

To be honest, in the face of those kinds of factors you describe, I'm not even sure the EU/UK government policy or any amount of funny money in an envelope would be able to rapidly change the market supply conditions.
 
kfpben

kfpben

Member
Location
Mid Hampshire
Woolless said:
Can you expand? Opportunities related to SFI?
Click to expand...
Yes, mostly. Also in this area there seem to be more arable farmers willing to grow cover crops including forage rape and turnips with the decline in the OSR area.

More farms are becoming specialist arable units that don’t want to run a few sheep/cattle on the awkward bits. If you are willing to be flexible, use electric fencing and happy to put the work in there are masses of opportunities about. Nb. In my area, I don’t claim to speak for everywhere!
 
S

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
ollie989898 said:
To be honest, in the face of those kinds of factors you describe, I'm not even sure the EU/UK government policy or any amount of funny money in an envelope would be able to rapidly change the market supply conditions.
Click to expand...
but, they have to feed the population every single day.

its either imported at exorbitant prices, get home production going, or ration food, there are no alternatives.

and farmers are pretty well the only people who can up production, quite happy to oblige, if its worth our while to do.

the whole food policy is completely bonkers, we are buying inputs at todays inflated prices, but selling product at 1980 prices. Its really down to the wire for many farmers. But politicians cannot see that, probably still think there are intervention stores, full of stored product.

in the battle, between food production, and the environment, when push comes to shove, food production will always win, other wise, people starve, guv's fail, riots etc.

as farmers, we can see what will happen, food cannot be produced at a loss. Successive gov's, of all colours, have relentlessly pursued a cheap food policy, and been perfectly happy to let the s/mkts shaft us. The sensible approach, would have been to let food rise with inflation, or near to it, now, there needs to be a correction, and its going to hurt.

we can clearly see, what happens when any product fails to meet demand, lamb has to be the classic example of that, £200+ for lambs o_Oo_Oo_O but that is only the price it needs to be, to cope with inflated inputs. Beef/stores/culls, all at unseen levels, its only because supply isn't meeting demand.

milk was short, 18/24 months back, prices went over 50ppl, dairy farmers increased supply, and the price dropped 25%. Plenty of grain about, low prices.

all the above is irrelevant, if putrid drops a nuke, but that might, hopefully, never happen, but war will spread, its happening now. Where it stops, any bodies guess.

but people have to eat, and guv is implementing policies, across UK and Europe, that will cut production, and its absolutely bonkers, but, the potential for farmers, is huge.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 107 39.9%

  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 98 36.6%

  • 25-50%

    Votes: 40 14.9%

  • 50-75%

    Votes: 5 1.9%

  • 75-100%

    Votes: 4 1.5%

  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 14 5.2%
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