Accuracy of weather forecasts compared.

[Pilatus]

Know doubt many of you use different weather forecasts to allow you to TRY and plan your next days work plans.
I would be interested to know if you find any weather forecasts “just a day ahead”, more reliable than others you have tried.
I do think that weather forecasting organisations do not really understand how much businesses that are governed by the weather ,place so much trust in weather forecasts for their survival.

 

[Generally01]

Know doubt many of you use different weather forecasts to allow you to TRY and plan your next days work plans.
I would be interested to know if you find any weather forecasts “just a day ahead”, more reliable than others you have tried.
I do think that weather forecasting organisations do not really understand how much businesses that are governed by the weather ,place so much trust in weather forecasts for their survival.

I think most of them are based off of one main source and each one of them add their own style to it. Weather is pretty unpredictable sooner or later they will make a mistake, I would advise you to just go with the one that has the best ease of use for you, and take everything they say with a grain of salt.

 

[Wombat]

Most of them are no better than looking or the window.

Take this week got not a lot Sat but today we were forecast 5mm and got 18mm so far this morning

 

[jondear]

Well thank f**k they got it wrong here last night missed it.Yippee.

 

[Wombat]

Well thank fudge they got it wrong here last night missed it.Yippee.

Yeah we got a chunk of it just as we were dry enough to get the drill out for the first time,

 

[Longneck]

 

[Paddington]

I thought there might have been an improvement when the Meteo group took over from the Met Office for the BBC forecasts, but they have got worse, their summary does not agree with the hourly forecast, which contradicts the radar chart. The raw data still comes from the MO.

 

[Longneck]

The strange thing is the Ap that i use (WeatherPro) gets its data from Meteo same as BBC but its always more accurate than BBC. It must be how they interpret it thats different

 

[milkloss]

I use the weather pro app too. I find it quite good but you still need to use other sources showing weather patterns to cast judgement.

it's down to just that at the end of the day: working it out for yourself, farmers are pretty good at it too.

 

[Longneck]

Always use BBC when i want to go spraying, dont think they have any number above 10 for wind speed..

 

[Jackov Altraids]

I cast my eye over all the forecasts, especially when it is important and you get a fair idea of the strengths and weaknesses of all the different sources.
As almost everything I do and decision I make is weather dependent, I do subscribe to www.weatherweb.net and find it excellent.
The forecasts not done by Simon Keeling aren't quite as good but Simon's enthusiasm and knowledge is excellent. Most importantly he tells you the whole story over different time scales.
What I find most helpful is how he explains how much confidence he has in any forecast and what might happen differently. I fear many forecasts would say there will be 50% sun and 50% rain tomorrow when actually it will be 100% sun or 100% rain with 50/50 chance of which it will be.

 

[lloyd]

I cast my eye over all the forecasts, especially when it is important and you get a fair idea of the strengths and weaknesses of all the different sources.
As almost everything I do and decision I make is weather dependent, I do subscribe to www.weatherweb.net and find it excellent.
The forecasts not done by Simon Keeling aren't quite as good but Simon's enthusiasm and knowledge is excellent. Most importantly he tells you the whole story over different time scales.
What I find most helpful is how he explains how much confidence he has in any forecast and what might happen differently. I fear many forecasts would say there will be 50% sun and 50% rain tomorrow when actually it will be 100% sun or 100% rain with 50/50 chance of which it will be.

Share its predictions for the coming weeks and save us all alot of money.

 

[farmerm]

I think what you have to consider is forecasts can be reasonable accurate at a macro level... Accurately predicting the Midlands will be hit by patchy showers in 3 days time is pretty easy, accurately predicting if those showers will fall on my location or 3 miles down the road is neigh impossible.

 

[Bob]

Share its predictions for the coming weeks and save us all alot of money.

Just go to weatheronline.co.uk it’s free on there. No more accurate than any other.

 

[yellow belly]

all the weather apps have big flaws in timeing of rain events

meteo group forecasts on bbc are much more inacurate than it was with the wet office

the met office app with hourly forecast can give rain on 6 of the hour slots with a 50% chance when the rain is a band that lasts less than an hour but the automatic system cannot interpet the band
the meteo app is worse same band as above but give us 12 hours of rain at under 50%

when infact the band is 1 hour wide and it rains which is 100% chance
sometimes the band can die out before it gets here which is 0% rain

i use the met office app with the rain animation and interpret the rainfall from that looking at the last 6 hours run then look at the next 24 hours run
then re check through the day

for longer term look at met office charts gf runs on weather online and the bbc

at least now we do not have to be in at specific times to see the bbc weather or listen to radio 4

 

[Pluto]

What annoys me is when they get it hopelessly wrong, but make no apologies. Grrr!

 

[Jackov Altraids]

Share its predictions for the coming weeks and save us all alot of money.

FREE Video: Farming Weather Week Update

premium.weatherweb.net

 

[Generally01]

What annoys me is when they get it hopelessly wrong, but make no apologies. Grrr!

Exactly as a farmer or any other outdoor career the weather plays a huge role in everything we do or can do, its the most powerful thing we know of. it is very unpredictable and i know what you mean they should admit that they can't actually accurately predict the weather, instead of making it look like that is the only possible outcome.

 

[Kiwi Pete]

I go to earth.nullschool.net and get a feel for what's coming, then use that info to modify the Yr.No forecasts, which tend towards overstating the rain forecast but are pretty good otherwise.

 

[GeorgeK]

I play the BBC graphics for forecast rain over the whole country, you can see the bands/patches sweeping across and how they are moving and changing. Combined with my local knowledge it gives me a rough feel for what's coming which I think is as good as we can get. I prefer this to trying to guess what % and mm numbers mean in reality that aren't accurate anyway