Agents’ cheery outlook post-BPS

[Suffolk Serf]

No, I certainly don’t think that they would go to “new entrants”. Having grown up on a tenanted estate, my experience is much the same as what you are describing, hence I dropped everything, moved East and now run 700 ewes on fag packet arrangements in electric fencing from a semi detached house. however I have never completely given up on the hope that something in my area may come available. Washing out a livestock trailer on your garden, Cade lambs in the garage and a dead bin in a neighbours yard isn’t really where I want to be in 5 years time- therefore I am ever the optimist!! I suppose the bug bear is that whilst I personally know of some very good older farmers still turning a healthy profit on AHA tenancies, I also see (both at “home” and my current location) farmers who have mothballed their whole farm to see out their days, worse still in my eyes then sub letting (surely contravening their tenancy ag?!) I suppose my hope is that whether they go to “new entrants” or not,that they are replaced with someone who can progress their business now. This is what I hoped the loss of BPS would encourage

Best of luck with that, I've been trying to move on from a similar situation for decades, not for lack of trying.

 

[Hilly]

So if a farmer Leaves the industry dose another not just step in ? What Happens to the land ?

 

[Surgery]

once again one of the main issue with changes to agricultural land-payments is it keeps land agents in a job , stop all sub and longer tenancies less agents required , mind you Cirencester collage probably won’t thank me for pointing this out

 

[glasshouse]

“Total Income from Farming (TIFF) is the official measure of the profit (income minus costs) gained by the agriculture industry in Scotland.”

Total Income from Farming Estimates: 2017-2019

Total Income from Farming (TIFF) is the official measure of the profit gained by the agriculture industry in Scotland. It provides a breakdown of the value of farm production, subsidies and costs.

www.gov.scot

It’s misleading imo. It means taxable income attributed to individuals, i.e profit.

Tiff includes things like cottage lets , holiday lets horse livery etc
Its totally misleading and paints a very different picture to reality

 

[glasshouse]

once again one of the main issue with changes to agricultural land-payments is it keeps land agents in a job , stop all sub and longer tenancies less agents required , mind you Cirencester collage probably won’t thank me for pointing this out

That place should be burnt to the ground.

 

[Fake it ‘til you make it]

once again one of the main issue with changes to agricultural land-payments is it keeps land agents in a job , stop all sub and longer tenancies less agents required , mind you Cirencester collage probably won’t thank me for pointing this out

Or manufacturers of mustard corduroys...

 

[Steevo]

Tiff includes things like cottage lets , holiday lets horse livery etc
Its totally misleading and paints a very different picture to reality

Good point that....I hadn't considered whether diversifications etc. were included.

 

[SteveHants]

ELMS is based around something called "natural capital" - it's not just carbon that can be traded, habitats can be too. There'd already a company set up here to do just that called "Environment Bank" - they did some CPD with the IAgriM recently. The calculating of "Natural Capital" (basically monetarising the environment) came as a response to American economists saying (and meaning) things like "If global warming wipes out US agriculture, it doesn't matter because US Ag only contributes 1% to the economy...."

It is basically paving the way for is a significant subsidy burden to be transferred from the state (and where state funding does exist, it will be for environmental "services - these range from the air that we breathe to leisure) to industry. There are some good case studies about companies buying natural capital on the FAO website, I think.

https://mro.massey.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10179/9476/Costanza%20et%20al%20%20Nature%201997%20prepublicaton.pdf

 

[Secret Agronomist]

Good point that....I hadn't considered whether diversifications etc. were included.

Moneys, money, in my opinion.

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

Moneys, money, in my opinion.

So, being devil's advocate for clarity, it wouldn't matter if your wife worked a 40 hour week in a job that actually cost her more than she earnt to do it so long add your income offered your family needs and her loss?

That's effectively what many farm businesses are doing with their current enterprises!

 

[Tubbylew]

Just my pennys worth. The whole concept of a golden handshake for retiring farmers who have already claimed many thousands of pounds in subsidy payments over there agricultural careers is a complete anathma to me, and I'm a (sort of) farmer, I'd hate to think what the rest of the working population would think of this, but it will do untold damage to agricultures reputation imo. ELMS so far seems to be hollow platitudes, so HMG can say they did something whilst not doing alot at all. They also seem to be at crossed purposes. Mr Kennedy said at an efra select comitee that "the average wealth transfer [from goverment to farmers] is £30000, and ELMS will be much less than that." But this will be a hugely expensive scheme to administer, never mind the capital works, and when you add a financial insentive to make the scheme attractive, its clear they're out of touch with the costs involved. Maybe thats why they're still scant on detail, the detail that was due in semptember, or was it november, or january, or...
If they really wanted to help ag. they'd harden up on supermarket cartels, and maintain equivalent import standards. If they wanted to help the environment, they'd buy up vast tracts of land at market value and turn in to forest or whatever, but they don't have the brass for that.

 

[Secret Agronomist]

So, being devil's advocate for clarity, it wouldn't matter if your wife worked a 40 hour week in a job that actually cost her more than she earnt to do it so long add your income offered your family needs and her loss?

That's effectively what many farm businesses are doing with their current enterprises!

You little devil!
There's obviously no point doing it if it's losing money! That's not what I was saying, or at least not what I meant. Diversification in it's broadest form, diversifying from whatever you are doing that is volatile and risky (but may have tax benefits) and using those same assets to increase your NET income.

 

[icanshootwell]

Wow, there has been a lot of talk about how the sfp payment reduction is going to kill the family farm!!

The family farm has been in decline for the last 30 years, mainly due to low prices and fixed costs getting higher, add in the mix siblings not getting on and the old man's will not being agreeable to his heirs, and land values going over 10k/a you then have the perfect storm brewing.

So we're going to take a hit on payment day, over the years I have got used to that. I am more worried about tractors machines etc going up 300% in the last 20 years than loosing 10k of sfp.

 

[getting on]

Yep many farms have long or short term finance. The BPS situation will remove a lot of breathing space for some.

If we ( farmers ) had not voted to come out of the EU we would not have this thread.

 

[livestock 1]

Wow, there has been a lot of talk about how the sfp payment reduction is going to kill the family farm!!

The family farm has been in decline for the last 30 years, mainly due to low prices and fixed costs getting higher, add in the mix siblings not getting on and the old man's will not being agreeable to his heirs, and land values going over 10k/a you then have the perfect storm brewing.

So we're going to take a hit on payment day, over the years I have got used to that. I am more worried about tractors machines etc going up 300% in the last 20 years than loosing 10k of sfp.

I agree and also think that the fact that youngsters can get a good wage for low hours elsewhere means that they are getting less

 

[teslacoils]

I agree and also think that the fact that youngsters can get a good wage for low hours elsewhere means that they are getting less

£12.44 basic at the B&M warehouse. Warm, dry, overtime, etc. Was led to believe that's starting rate at the crisp factory too. No cat4 ni, no vat returns.

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

I am more worried about tractors machines etc going up 300% in the last 20 years than loosing 10k of sfp.

Farmers fault for paying it.

 

[Tarw Coch]

If we ( farmers ) had not voted to come out of the EU we would not have this thread.

1.7 million majority to leave, if every farmer had voted remain we’d be in the same place

 

[neilo]

1.7 million majority to leave, if every farmer had voted remain we’d be in the same place

Doesn't really matter now anyway. What's done is done, we've just got to make the best of the consequences.

 

[SteveHants]

If we ( farmers ) had not voted to come out of the EU we would not have this thread.

The writing is on the wall for decoupled "base rate" subsidies - as above. See the FAO website for business' case studies (in terms of funding).