AHDB daily market commentary

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 09 March 2022

• May 22 UK feed wheat futures returned to week earlier levels yesterday, to £295.00/t, losing £8.00/t from Monday. New crop wheat futures also fell £5.50/t, settling at £243.50/t.
• Global wheat markets also lost ground yesterday, with Chicago wheat futures (May 22) closing at $472.66/t, down $2.76/t on the day. However, May 22 Chicago maize futures gained $0.89/t to close at $296.46/t. Likewise, Chicago soyabeans (May 22) gained $11.11/t on Monday and closed at $620.81/t.
• The easing in wheat prices can be partly attributed to a rise in Brazilian exports. On the back of situation in Ukraine, it has been reported that Brazil is to export more wheat and maize than usual for this point in the season. A deal to export 100Kt of wheat from Brazil was made last week, with wheat from Brazil looking quite competitive due to the high dollar and weaker domestic demand, according to a Refinitiv source.
• The latest USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is due to be published later today, which will include its updated projections for global production and trade.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/uk-feed-wheat-prices-take-a-breath-grain-market-daily

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 10 March 2022

• London feed wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £297.50/t, regaining some of the losses from the previous day. The number of May-22 contracts traded has increased again over the past two days. Yesterday, 646 contracts were traded, the largest number since 15 December 2021 (Refinitiv).
• Paris rapeseed (May-22) gained a further €8.25/t yesterday closing at €891.00 continuing to reach record highs for the third day running.
• Brent crude oil (nearby), which has been trading near historic highs of late, dropped yesterday to close the day at $111.14/barrel, down $16.84/barrel from the day before. This follows news that the UAE support an increase in OPEC+ oil output in a bid to ease current supply pressures. The market will likely remain volatile in the short-term though.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Black Sea exports trimmed in March WASDE

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 11 March 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £293.00/t, down £4.50 on Wednesday’s close. Prices have drifted down after a contract high was set at £303.00/t on Monday. New crop futures (Nov-22) closed at £244.50/t yesterday, gaining £0.35/t over Thursday.
• Old crop prices followed the global market, as Chicago wheat futures (May-22) closed down 9.5% yesterday. However, new crop futures gained by 0.75%. The reason for the loss for old crop was cited as the recent hiking of prices making grain too expensive for potential buyers.
• In February Russia banned Ammonium Nitrate (AN) exports until April. However, yesterday Russia hit back at Western sanctions with export bans which include more than 200 products. The full list isn't available yet but doesn't seem to include raw materials, though this remains a risk.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - High prices but high fertiliser cost

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 15 March 2022

• UK feed wheat (May-22) futures rose £2.50/t yesterday, to close at £300.50/t. However, at such high prices, only 137 contracts were traded yesterday (Refinitiv). New-crop futures (Nov-22) gained £3.50/t yesterday, closing at £254.00/t.
• UK feed wheat prices followed the Paris wheat contract up and reacted to a weakening of the sterling against the dollar. Paris milling wheat (May-22) futures gained €8.00/t yesterday, to close at €378.75/t.
• Brent crude oil futures fell to their lowest point in over two weeks yesterday. Nearby prices fell $5.77/t yesterday to $106.90/t. This is down to Black Sea peace talks and China’s COVID-19 infection rate concerns.
• Following crude oil, Paris rapeseed (May-22) futures fell €6.50/t yesterday closing at €898.25/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Russian export curbs supporting prices

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 18 March 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £299.00/t, up £1.50 from the day before. This ranks as the fourth highest settlement price for the contract. This said, the volume traded was the lowest since 17 February 2022.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed at another record high yesterday of €928.50/t, up €29.00/t from the day before. The market remains volatile though, trading in a €53.25/t range yesterday.
• Chicago maize futures (May-22) almost regained its losses from Wednesday, closing yesterday at $297.05/t. This is up $9.65/t from the day before.
• Chicago wheat futures (May-22) gained $10.57/t yesterday to close at $403.41/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Tight rapeseed supply keeps new crop prices elevated

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 22 March 2022

• Commodity markets continued to move higher yesterday on the back of Black Sea supply concerns.
• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) jumped £9.90/t from Friday’s close to settle at £302.90/t yesterday. Similarly, new crop (Nov-22) moved up £10.50/t to close at £260.50/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed yesterday at €970.00/t (c.£812.00/t), up €32.25/t from Friday’s close. The new crop (Nov-22) contract also gained, albeit a lesser jump (€10.75/t), to close the day at €744.00/t (c.£623.00/t).
• Chicago grain markets (May-22) also recorded gains with the wheat contract gaining $20.39/t and the maize contract gaining $5.71/t, to close yesterday at $411.21/t and $297.74/t respectively.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - How could 2022/23 global crop availability be affected?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 23 March 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £307.10/t, gaining £4.20/t on Monday’s close. November-22 closed at £263.95/t gaining £3.45/t over the same period.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed yesterday at €994.50/t, gaining €24.50/t on Monday’s close. The contract has traded at over €1,000/t this morning but there has been limited volumes. New crop futures (Nov-22) closed at €760.75/, gaining €16.75/t over the same period.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Fresh new highs for UK wheat futures

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 24 March 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed up £3.90/t on the day, to settle at £311.00/t. Nov-22 gained £3.05/t, closing at £267.00/t.
• May-22 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €926.50/t yesterday, down €68.00/t. This was after trading as high as €1021.75/t earlier in the day.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - UK wheat and barley on a knife edge

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 25 March 2022

• UK feed wheat (May-22) closed lower by £0.60/t yesterday, to £310.40/t. Though contract trading was at very low levels, with only 23 contracts traded (Refinitiv). The new-crop contract (Nov-22) fell by £0.55/t yesterday, to close at £266.45/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) continues an extremely volatile week, settling €51.50/t up yesterday to €978.00/t. Some strength was also mirrored in the Winnipeg contract (May-22).
• Brent crude oil (nearby) fell $2.57/t yesterday, to $119.03 per barrel.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Is UK wheat still export competitive?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 30 March 2022

• UK feed wheat futures prices fell yesterday; the May-22 contract dropped £6.00/t to close at £303.25/t, while Nov-22 was back £8.50/t, to close at £254.00/t. More positive tones coming from Russia/Ukraine peace talks are bringing a backwards step from recent price gains.
• Price softening was also felt in the oilseed complex, with Paris rapeseed (May-22) down €34.25/t, closing at €937.75/t. The Nov-22 contract was also back (€10.50/t), to close at €746.75/t. Chicago soyabeans also moved down. The May-22 contract dropped $7.81/t and Nov-22 dropped $7.44/t, to finish the session at $603.64/t and $532.18/t respectively.
• There is news today that Ukraine is in talks to ship grains via Romanian ports. If realised, this could bring further pressure to global prices.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - US soyabean stocks could feel extra demand

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 31 March 2022

• UK feed wheat (May-22) gained £2.25/t yesterday, to close at £305.50/t. The new-crop contract (Nov-22) gained £5.00/t to close at £259.00/t. Tracking global wheat higher.
• Chicago maize (May-22) gained $4.63/t yesterday to close at $290.55/t.
• Brent crude oil (nearby) closed up $3.22/barrel yesterday, to close at $113.45/barrel. This has traded down this morning though.
• The latest cereal usage data for GB animal feed and UK human and industrial are now available.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Why US maize data matters

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 01 April 2022

• Yesterday, UK feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £2.00/t, closing the day at £307.50/t. New-crop (Nov-22) also gained (£2.65/t) to close yesterday at £261.65/t.
• UK feed wheat generally followed Paris wheat and Chicago maize market moves.
• The May-22 Paris rapeseed futures contract dropped €21.00/t yesterday, closing at €941.00/t. This follows Chicago soyabeans down, somewhat driven by a bearish USDA stocks report.
• Also, in oils, brent crude oil (nearby) dropped $5.54/bbl yesterday closing at $107.91/bbl.
• The second AHDB crop development report is now out. This gives an overview of major GB cereal and oilseeds crop conditions at the end of March 2022.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Maize, a floor to UK new-crop grain markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 05 April 2022

• UK feed wheat futures bounced up again yesterday, supported by threats of further sanctions from the West on Russia. The May-22 contract closed at £303.40/t, up £0.20/t. New crop (Nov-22) futures rose further following US crop condition news (see below), up £3.70/t to close at £262.25/t.
• Paris rapeseed (May-22) prices softened slightly. to €944.25/t, down €2.50/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-22 contract saw the reverse, up €20.50/t over the same period, to close at €789.50/t.
• Argentine grain transporters are calling for strike action, demanding an increase in grain freight rates as the higher fuel costs begin to bite. With 86% of soyabean transportation to ports by truck, and the bulk of the soyabean harvest in the second quarter of the year, strike action could come moving into a key period.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - USDA crop conditions – more woes for wheat?

Latest futures market prices are available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 06 April 2022

• May-22 London feed wheat futures closed yesterday at £305.25/t, up £1.85/t on the day before. The Nov-22 (new-crop) contract gained more (+£4.80/t), to close at £267.05/t.
• London futures movement followed US markets. Chicago wheat (May-22) futures gained $12.85/t, to close at $384.02/t. Whilst the new-crop contract (Dec-22) closed at $377.41/t, up $11.85/t from Monday. Much of the move is on the back of a bearish USDA crop conditions report, pegging just 30% of winter wheat in good/excellent condition.
• Paris rapeseed (May-22) jumped €15.50/t yesterday, closing at €959.75/t. The Nov-22 contract continued the upwards trend, closing yesterday at €802.00/t, up €12.50/t from Mondays close.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/strengthen...ce-push-in-line-with-paris-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 07 April 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £304.50/t, down £0.75/t on Tuesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-22) closed £2.45/t higher over the same period, to end the day at £269.50/t, setting a new contract high.
• The old crop domestic market followed Chicago and Paris down as markets awaits details of new Western sanctions against Russia. There is also further assessment of drought impacting the wheat crop in US plains.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed yesterday at €953.50/t, down €6.25/t on Tuesday's close. New crop futures (Nov-22) closed at €792.00/t, down €10.00/t over the same period. Read more below on oilseed prices and market information.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - A month of large volatility for oil and oilseeds

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 12 April 2022

• UK feed wheat (May-22) gained £4.95/t yesterday to close at £312.45/t. New crop (Nov-22) futures gained £7.85/t yesterday from Fridays close, to settle at a new contract high of £283.35/t. We can see new-crop futures moving upwards, closer to old-crop prices.
• Chicago maize futures (Dec-22) gained $0.79/t yesterday, to close at $282.68/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €9.00/t yesterday to close at €970.00/t. The new-crop futures (Nov-22) gained €0.50/t yesterday to close at €797.75/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - US weather watching

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

13 April 2022

• Yesterday, both old and new crop UK feed wheat futures closed at new contract highs. The May-22 contract settled at £322.00/t, up £9.55/t from Mondays close. Nov-22 futures gained £9.65/t on the day at £293.00/t.
• Dec-22 Chicago wheat futures also closed at a contract high yesterday at $404.69/t, up $7.44/t from Mondays close. The May-22 settled at $405.52/t, up $8.27/t.
• On the back of plans to increase US biofuel demand, both May-22 and Dec-22 Chicago maize futures closed at new contract highs on Tuesday of $305.61/t and $287.79/t respectively.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - New crop discount diminishing as focus turns to harvest 2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 14 April 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £322.00/t, flat from the day before, at an all-time high. The Nov-22 also remained flat from Tuesday, closing yesterday at £293.00/t
• Paris rapeseed old crop (May-22) and new crop (Nov-22) also stayed almost flat yesterday from Tuesdays close. Both contracts were up just €0.75/t closing at €991.00/t (May-22) and €816.75/t (Nov-22).
• Despite a slip yesterday, Malaysian palm oil futures have climbed higher this morning. This follows increased concerns for the edible oil market due to continued conflict in Ukraine and trucker strikes in Argentina.
• The latest Egyptian (GASC) tender has included a shipment of Russian wheat, alongside French and Bulgarian supplies. The purchase totalled 350Kt of wheat and is the first successful GASC tender since the Russian invasion.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - The Sustainable Farming Incentive
AHDB's full report: Assessing the impact of the Sustainable Farming Incentive on farm businesses

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 20 April 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) fell £2.30/t yesterday, to close at £317.50/t. Traded contract volume yesterday for this contract was notably higher than in recent weeks. New-crop futures (Nov-22) fell £2.35/t yesterday, to close at £288.90/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €14.00/t yesterday, to close at €1,018.00/t. New-crop futures (Nov-22) gained €1.50/t yesterday, to close at €828.75/t.
• Nearby brent crude oil futures fell $5.91/barrel yesterday, to close at $107.25/barrel.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - UK wheat price volatility continues

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 27 April 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £7.00/t yesterday, to close at another contract high of £332.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-22) gained £5.70/t yesterday, to close at £293.25/t. This is also a contract high.
• Gains followed Paris and Chicago wheat contracts, trading higher on US crop concerns. On Monday, the USDA released the latest winter wheat conditions up to 24 April. These fell 3 percentage points (pp) week-on-week, to 27% ‘good’ to ‘excellent’. US spring wheat planting is also behind last year and the 5-year average (2017 to 2021).
• Paris rapeseed (Nov-22) gained €22.00/t yesterday, to close at €856.50/t.
• Statistics Canada released their principal field crop areas yesterday, detailing planting intentions collected through March. Rapeseed and barley are key crops set to lose out in area to wheat, maize, oats, lentils and soyabeans. The report detailed soil moisture in some areas of Western Canada has returned to normal, but some areas remain dry.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Spring Grain Market Outlook roundup

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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