AHDB daily market commentary

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 28 January 2022

• UK May-22 wheat futures slid back again yesterday, down £2.55/t to close at £219.00/t. After a weekly high seen at Wednesday’s close (£228.00/t), global wheat markets have steadied as investors monitored the stand off between Russia and the West over Ukraine.
• The UK Nov-22 wheat contract followed the same pattern to a lesser extent, closing yesterday at £198.65/t, down £0.85/t on the day.
• Indonesia announced yesterday plans to limit palm oil exports, ruling that 20% of the edible oil must be sold domestically. This moved Malaysian palm oil futures (continuation 3) to a record 5,639 ringgit/t. This would make the traditionally cheapest of the three major edible oils (soyoil, sunflower oil and palm oil) the most expensive, and could lead major buyers to turn towards cheaper soy and sunflower oils

Today's Grain Market Daily: Palm oil prices jump on Indonesian export curbs

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 01 February 2022

• Wheat prices around the world fell yesterday. Rain is forecast for the US winter wheat areas, while fears are also easing about the impact of tensions in the Black Sea.
• May-22 UK feed wheat futures fell £4.30/t to £216.70/t, while the Nov-22 contract lost £6.25/t to £195.00/t.
• UK ex-farm feed barley remains at a narrow discount to feed wheat. Last week (up to Thu 27 Jan), spot feed barley averaged £210.10/t. This was just £4.00/t below the average price for spot feed wheat.
• In contrast, cuts to South American crop forecasts pushed up Chicago soyabean prices. This likely helped May-22 Paris rapeseed futures to gain €5.25/t to €715.75/t. New crop (Nov-22) Paris rapeseed futures didn’t follow this due to larger 2022 EU-27 crop expectations.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Drought cuts Brazilian soyabean crop

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 02 February 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £1.35/t to close yesterday at £218.05/t. This follows global grain markets. The Nov-22 contract also closed higher yesterday at £198.25/t (+£3.25/t from Monday).
• US soyabeans (May-22) gained $14.33/t yesterday to close at $563.68/t. This follows increased concerns for South American crops which would likely result in higher demand for US supplies.
• Palm oil continues to lead global vegetable oil markets up. Palm oil production has been hampered by weather and labour issues in Malaysia but Indonesia’s announcement to curb exports adds pressure to supply.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/harvest-2022-rapeseed-prices-peak-grain-market-daily

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 03 February 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £215.00/t, down £3.05/t on Tuesday’s close. The Nov-22 contract closed at 196.15/t, down £2.10/t on Tuesday’s close.
• The domestic market followed the Chicago and Paris markets down. Cited to cause this pressure is technical selling, combined with US winter crops receiving beneficial rain. Megan discusses why the US crops are important to prices here.
• Yesterday, Russia banned the export of ammonium nitrate (AN) until 1 April 2022. The Russian government has done this in a bid to guarantee affordable supplies in their domestic trade, following the increase in global fertiliser prices.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/analyst-insight-opportunity-to-market-2023-wheat

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 04 February 2022

• UK feed wheat old crop contract (May-22) closed down £0.50/t yesterday to £214.50/t. Whereas, the new crop contract (Nov-22) closed down £1.60/t yesterday to £194.55/t. This fall followed global wheat contracts.
• Argentina’s soyabean harvest forecast for 2021/22 has been trimmed by 2.0Mt by the Bolsa de Cereales, to 42.0Mt on lower yields and lower planted area because of drought.
• The latest US ethanol figures show production to remain strong, with 1041K barrels per day produced in the week ending 28 Jan 2022 (up 0.6% from previous week). Though stocks increased too (up 5.6% from previous week).

Today's Grain Market Daily: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/the-exchange-rate-impact-grain-market-daily

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 08 February 2022

• UK feed wheat old crop futures (May-22) prices climbed £1.40/t yesterday to close at £218.95/t. New crop futures (Nov-22) also gained £1.40/t to close at £198.10/t. This follows global wheat trends.
• However, with the next world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) due out from the USDA tomorrow (09 Feb), it is expected there may be some profit taking today that could pressure prices.
• Malaysian palm oil futures (May-22) fell 0.8% yesterday. This follows reports that stocks at the end of January were likely flat, yet production and exports were down to an 11-month low. Further data is due on 10 Feb.

Today's Grain Market Daily: China’s demand supporting oilseed prices

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 09 February 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £219.00/t, gaining £0.05/t on Monday’s close. New-crop futures (Nov-22) gained £0.45/t to close at £198.55/t.
• Support in the Chicago market yesterday was from dry conditions across U.S. winter wheat regions, such as the southern plains.
• Chicago soybean futures (May-22) closed down 0.87% yesterday at $577.74/t, this is down from a contract high.
• The market is positioned ahead of tonight's USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (out 17:00GMT), and it is expected that there will be further downgrade to South American production, read more in today's Grain Market Daily.

Today's Grain Market Daily: South America in focus for WASDE

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 10 February 2022

• US grain and oilseed futures rose sharply yesterday despite a relatively cautious USDA report (see today's Grain Market Daily). The report was out at the end of the trading day in the UK markets (5pm GMT). As a result, UK futures recorded small rises yesterday but are trading higher so far today (midday).
• Yesterday, May-22 UK feed wheat futures gained £0.25/t to close at £219.25/t, while the Nov-22 contract rose £1.15/t to close at £199.70/t.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange pegged the Argentine soyabean crop at 40.5Mt yesterday, vs the USDA at 45.0Mt. The Rosario Grain Exchange looks at commercial production rather than total, so its estimates tend to be a little lower than other sources. But, the warning from the Rosario Grain Exchange was clear: without ample rain in the rest of February, yields will suffer further.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Markets rise despite cautious USDA report

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 11 February 2022

• Despite trading in a £4.00/t range through the day, UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday almost flat from the previous day (-£0.10/t) at £219.15/t. The Nov-22 contract also only moved marginally, closing at £200.05/t, up £0.35/t.
• US soyabeans (May-22) look set for a week-on-week gain despite a slight dip yesterday, closing at $579.21, down $6.98/t from the day before. A relatively bearish report from the USDA is counterbalanced by continued dryness concerns in South America.
• Paris rapeseed has traded independently from soyabeans. Yesterday, the May-22 contract rose €3.50/t, to close at €686.25/t. This said, it looks to be on course to record a weekly drop.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Tight wheat supply entering 2022/23

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 15 February 2022

• Global wheat prices rose yesterday due to the ongoing situation between Russia and Ukraine. If exports from the region are disrupted, it could push more demand to the EU and US. Old crop (May-22) UK feed wheat futures gained £1.95/t to close at £223.00/t, while new crop (Nov-22) futures rose £1.35/t to close at £202.50/t.
• Oilseed prices eased back yesterday, reportedly due to potential rainfall in parts of South America, which could improve conditions for later planted crops. This was despite prices rising earlier in the day as more forecasters reduced their estimates of the Brazilian soyabean crop.
• Harvesting of the Brazilian soyabean crop was 25% complete by 12 Feb, while planting of the country’s Safrinha maize crop reached 35% complete (Conab).
• Old crop Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) fell €6.00/t yesterday to close at €685.50/t, while new crop (Nov-22) futures dropped €3.25/t to close at €613.50/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Export pace key for UK oat market

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 16 February 2022

• May-22 UK wheat futures closed yesterday at £219.40/t, down £3.60/t Monday’s close. New crop values (Nov-22) were also back, closing at £200.50/t down £2.00/t on Monday’s close.
• The domestic market was pressured with the Chicago and Paris markets. Reasons were due to Russia reportedly slowly retreating away from the Ukrainian border, tempering worries that Black Sea grain exports will be disrupted.
• SovEcon has raised its forecast of 2022 Russian wheat production by 3.6Mt. The crop is now estimated at 84.8Mt, increase is due to favourable weather.

Today's Grain Market Daily: La Niña weather can drive your wheat price

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 17 February 2022

• UK feed wheat (May-22) closed yesterday at £217.65/t, down £1.75/t from the day before. The Nov-22 contract also lost ground yesterday (-£0.85/t) to close at £199.65/t.
• Paris rapeseed (May-22) gained €14.00/t from Tuesdays close ending the day at €702.25/t. New-crop (Nov-22) also gained yesterday (+€8.50/t) to close at €615.75/t.
• Sterling strengthened yesterday against both the US dollar and the euro.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - What’s Russian-Ukrainian tensions doing to oils?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 18 February 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £0.35/t yesterday, to close at £218.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-22) gained the same amount closing at £200.00/t.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-22) gained another $1.74/t yesterday, to close at $586.37/t. The Nov-22 contract climbed $1.93/t, to close at $536.68/t.
• Paris rapeseed (May-22) closed yesterday at €695.75/t, down €6.50/t. The Nov-22 contract fell just €25/t, closing at €614.50/t. A likely influence could be crude oil prices retreating, as well as repositioning against other vegetable oils.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Black Sea concerns supporting wheat and soyabeans going strong

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 22 February 2022

• The May-22 UK feed wheat futures contract closed yesterday at £223.00/t. This is up £0.50/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-22 contract gained £1.00/t from Friday to close yesterday at £205.00/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €12.25/t (1.74%) yesterday, to close at €716.00/t. The Nov-22 contract gained at a slower pace (+€6.50/t) but closed the day at another record high for the contract (€626.50/t).
• US markets were closed yesterday due to Presidents Day. The latest commitment of trader’s report showed soyabean net long positions (as at 15 Feb) were the highest since May-21, indicating a bullish market.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Upwards market moves as political tensions rise

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 23 February 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £228.00/t. This is up £5.00/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-22 contract gained slightly less, up £3.30/t from Monday, to close yesterday at £208.30/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €13.50/t yesterday, to close at €729.50/t. Yesterday’s gains extended price rises to 3.7% since Friday’s close. The new crop contract (Nov-22) continues to gain at a slower pace, rising €6.25/t yesterday, to €632.75/t. Another contract high.
• Brent crude oil (nearby) gained 1.5% yesterday, to close at $96.84/barrel. This is the highest close since September 2014.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Market support from Ukraine-Russian relations

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 24 February 2022

• Markets rise sharply as Russia invades Ukraine. There were significant price rises yesterday and markets are trading far higher again today (midday).
• UK feed wheat futures for May-22 rose £7.25/t yesterday to £235.25/t. The Nov-22 contract gained £7.85/t to a new high of £216.15/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures for May-22 gained €10.75/t yesterday to €740.25/t, approx. £618.00/t. The Nov-22 contract gained €10.00/t to a new high of €642.75/t, approx. £536.50/t.
• Initial forecasts from the USDA point to the US soyabean area rising 0.9% year on year for harvest 2022, while the maize planted area could fall 1.5%. These projections are ahead of the USDA’s annual Agriculture Outlook Forum today and tomorrow.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Export issues ahead as Russia invades Ukraine

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 25 February 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £245.25/t, gaining significantly on Wednesdays close by £10.00/t. Nov-22 closed at £224.00/t, an increase of £7.85/t on Wednesday’s close and setting another contract high.
• Currently the domestic market has receded some of yesterday’s gains and has opened lower this morning. May-22 is trading as low as £235.00/t and Nov-22 is trading as low as £217.90/t (as at 10:00am).
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed at €763.50/t, gaining €23.25/t on Wednesday’s close, this contract is currently up €59.75/t since last Friday. New crop rapeseed futures (Aug-22) followed suit gained €21.75/t yesterday to close at €666.75/t.
• Nearby Brent crude oil closed yesterday at $99.08/barrel, up 5.92% across the week so far. The contract as of 09:00 this morning was trading at $101.07/barrel. If this contract closes at over $100, this will be the first time since 2014.

Today's Grain Market Daily: Bulls in commodity markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 1 March 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £21.05/t on Monday from Friday’s close, settling at £252.05/t. New crop futures (Nov-22) climbed £12.50/t from Friday, to close at £220.50/t yesterday.
• Chicago maize futures (May-22) jumped $13.78/t yesterday, to close at $271.95/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €50/t to close at €755.50/t yesterday.
• Brent crude oil (nearby) closed at $100.99/ barrel, up 3.1% from Friday’s close.

Today's Grain Market Daily: UK wheat futures set new high

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 2 March 2022

• London feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £12.95/t yesterday, to close at £265.00/t. That’s £41.00/t more than the start of the calendar year and the highest price in history. The Nov-22 contract also gained (£8.50/t) yesterday, to close at £229.00/t.
• Paris rapeseed (May-22) soared yesterday, closing at €825.75/t, up €70.25/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-22 contract closed the day at €694.50/t, gaining €35.25/t from the previous day.
• Oil markets continue to climb. Crude oil (May-22) gained another $7.00/barrel to close yesterday at $104.97/barrel. Malaysian palm oil (May-22) also jumped another $112/t, closing yesterday at $1,613/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily - Bull run continues into 2022/23

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

03 March 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £269.00/t, gaining £4.00/t on Tuesday’s close. New crop (Nov-22) closed at £223.50/t, down £5.50/t from Tuesday’s contract high.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed yesterday at €803.75/t, down €22.00/t from the day before. However, new crop (Aug-22) futures closed at €711.50/t, up €3.00/t on Tuesday’s close.
• Heavy rains in Argentina alleviate fears of prolonged droughts. Oilseed markets were slightly pressured yesterday with both Paris rapeseed and Chicago soyabeans closing lower.
• The bullish spur in wheat remains as news of the Russian invasion on Ukraine continues to dominate market sentiment.
• The latest GB animal feed production and UK human and industrial cereal usage up until January 2022 is now published. Please note some of the usage and production figures have been revised, due to updated data being received. These revisions will be reflected in our next AHDB balance sheet, which is schedule for release 24 March 2022.

Today's Grain Market Daily - Black Sea tensions will influence new crop rapeseed prices

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