AHDB daily market commentary

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 18 November 2022

• UK wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £265.00/t, gaining £2.25/t on Wednesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £245.25/t, gaining £1.75/t over the same period. Despite the domestic market initially feeling pressure from the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor, it ended higher shadowing the gains in Paris wheat futures.
• Paris wheat futures gained in late trade on Thursday on discussion that China may have purchased additional French wheat, after the price dropped on the corridor extension.
• Further to that, after the price drop yesterday morning, Pakistan issued a new international tender to purchase import 500Kt of wheat.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €599.25/t down €17.00/t on Wednesday’s close – this followed the downward trend of the oilseed complex – read more information about this below.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Crude oil prices could weigh on oilseeds

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 22 November 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £261.00/t yesterday, down £5.10/t on Friday’s close. The Nov-23 contract lost £3.80/t over the same period, closing at £243.50/t.
• Markets were pressured by the large supply of cheap Russian wheat after the Black Sea grain corridor was renewed for 120 days. The tightening of covid rules in China also fuels concern over global demand moving forward.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €603.75/t, down €6.25/t. This tracked losses in Canadian canola markets, and was also pressured by warm weather in October benefitting rapeseed development across much of Europe.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Significantly higher UK wheat balance, barley remains tight:

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 23 November 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) climbed £3.00/t over yesterday’s session, closing at £264.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £244.50/t, up £1.00/t from Monday’s close.
• Yesterday the European Commission announced that soft wheat exports from the EU in the 2022/23 season, as at 20 November, were up 4% on the year at 13.63Mt. Increased global demand for EU wheat added some support to continental markets, can we see this pace rise with increased Chinese purchasing?
• Whereas this news on increased EU supplies on the market pressured Chicago wheat futures yesterday.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €605.50/t yesterday, up €1.75/t from Monday’s close. EU rapeseed imports in the 2022/23 season so far are said to have reached 2.85Mt, compared to 2Mt at the same point the year prior. Tight rapeseed supply in the EU keeps prices elevated.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - GMO conference market outlook round-up

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 24 November 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £259.10/t, down £4.90/t on Tuesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £241.00/t down £3.50/t over the same period.
• Markets continued to be pressured yesterday by the extension of the Ukraine export corridor as well as sterling strengthening slightly against the dollar.
• On Tuesday nearby Paris milling wheat futures reached a two-week high after talks of heavy export demand for nearby shipment caused a rush to cover short positions. This demand was from China and discussion of Polish or German wheat being booked for the US.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €587.25/t, down €18.25/t on Tuesday’s close. Paris futures followed the downward trend in Canadian canola markets yesterday, which came down following speculators selling positions. Markets were also pressured by the drop in Brent Crude oil prices.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Carbon markets, an emerging market to help farm profitability?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 25 November 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £254.80/t, down £4.30/t on Wednesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract lost £2.50/t over the same period, closing at £238.50.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) gained €1.50/t, closing at €588.75/t.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, soyabean plantings are at just 19.4%, 19.9pp behind this time last year and maize plantings are at 23.8% (6.2pp behind last year). This is because of poor soil moisture and limited rainfall – read more below.
• The AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Grain Market Outlook podcast is now live. In this episode of the Food & Farming podcast the AHDB discuss the Grain Market Outlook Conference, what’s driving global markets, farm margins and input costs by analysing Farm Bench data.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - What has been driving my ex-farm wheat price?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 29 November 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £252.60/t, down £5.15/t on Friday’s close. Nov-23 futures closed at £237.00/t, down £3.15/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market followed the pressure in both Chicago and Paris wheat futures. Which were down along with equity markets after a wave of selling on concerns about the impact of protests in China against its strict COVID-19 policy.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €585.75/t, down €6.50/t on Friday’s close. Despite this Chicago soyabean futures gained across the day following an uptick in soya oil and news from fresh U.S. soyabean export sales.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Argentina’s weather critical stages - market watchpoint

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 30 November 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £252.75/t, up £0.15/t on Monday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £236.65/t, down £0.35/t over the same period.
• Minimal movement on the domestic market. However, Paris wheat futures (May-23) were down yesterday as competition from cheaper Black Sea supplies capped prices. Record Russian harvest combined with the continuation of the export corridor is creating competition for EU origin.
• Chicago soyabeans gained on Tuesday as investors optimistically hoped that China will ease COVID-19 measures after rare protests unsettled markets on Monday. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) were also supported closing at €589.25/t yesterday, gaining €3.50/t on Monday’s close.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - US winter wheat condition – does it matter right now?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 01 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) were up £1.75/t on Tuesday’s close, closing at £254.50/t yesterday. The Nov-23 contract closed at £238.50/t yesterday, up £1.85/t over the same period.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €601.00/t, up €11.75/t on Tuesday’s close. This tracked strength in crude oil, support for Canadian canola from crusher buying and support for soyabeans following optimism of demand increases in China from hopes that restrictions will be eased.
• AHDB GB animal feed production and UK human and industrial cereal usage data is now published for the month of October.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - How competitive is UK wheat on the export market?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 06 December 2022

• UK feed wheat (May-23) fell £3.20/t yesterday, to close at £242.50/t. New-crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £230.30/t, down the same amount over the same period.
• This movement followed global grain contracts down yesterday, pressured by a large Australian crop forecasted despite recent flooding and competitive Black Sea supplies.
• Today, ABARES released their latest report stating that this season’s winter crop production is set to reach 62Mt. This is the second highest on record. Favourable spring conditions have boosted the outlook for production in Western Australia and South Australia. Eastern states are due to see high overall forecasts despite widespread losses from record spring rainfall.
• Paris rapeseed (May-23) contract remained relatively unchanged at close yesterday, up €0.25/t to close at €572.25/t.
• Nearby brent crude oil futures fell $2.89/barrel yesterday to close at $82.68/barrel. In recent news, the G7 have put a price cap on Russian crude oil by sea. Though Russia has said it will not abide by the measure even if it has to curb production (Refinitiv).

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Competitive Black Sea wheat pressuring prices

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 07 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £240.95/t, down £1.55/t on Monday’s close. This close is the lowest point since early March. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £227.75/t, down £2.55/t over the same period.
• UK prices followed global contracts down as large Black Sea supplies, and record-high Australian production, continue to weigh on wheat markets. More on this below.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) gained €2.50/t yesterday, closing at €574.75/t.
• Chicago soyabean futures felt support yesterday on concerns over dry weather negatively impacting the Argentinian soyabean crop and easing Chinese COVID-19 restrictions.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Australian wheat and rapeseed production at record levels

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 08 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) climbed £3.05/t over yesterday’s session, closing at £244.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £230.00/t, gaining £2.25/t from Tuesday’s close.
• UK wheat prices tracked global markets up yesterday as bargain buying added strength to Chicago wheat futures. The May-23 Chicago wheat contract gained $7.35/t yesterday, ending the session at $279.13/t.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May 23) climbed $5.60/t yesterday, closing the session at $545.31/t. The Nov-23 contract closed at $513.90/t, climbing $4.41/t over the session.
• Soyabean markets ticked higher on the back of continued dryness in Argentina, as well as expectations of demand recovery from China, due to an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in the country.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - What does the 'cost of living crisis' mean for UK flour demand?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 09 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £245.00/t, gaining £1.00/t on Wednesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £229.00/t, down £1.00/t over the same period.
• Old crop gained marginally with Paris wheat futures yesterday, with a weakening (0.22%) pound against the euro inflating gains. Yesterday’s trading closed at £1 = €1.1586.
• New crop futures followed the Chicago market down across the board, pressured by lacklustre weekly export sales. U.S. wheat export sales (as at 1 Dec) were at 189.8Kt at the low end of analyst forecasts of 150Kt to 400kt.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Does storing grain peak your interest?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 13 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £245.50/t yesterday, up £3.50/t on Friday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £230.00/t, up £2.50/t over the same period.
• UK and European wheat markets tracked US markets higher, with prices supported by concerns over Black Sea grain exports following Russian attacks on Odesa’s energy infrastructure, temporarily suspending operations at the port.
• Yesterday, Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) lost €9.00/t on Friday’s close, closing at €562.25/t.
• Rapeseed markets tracked soyabeans lower, following rains in Argentina over the weekend easing concerns over soyabean production, and reduced demand for soyabeans and palm oil due to increasing COVID-19 cases in China.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - UK trade data – season to date round up

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 16 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £240.50/t, down £1.50/t. Whereas, new-crop futures (Nov-23) gained £0.80/t, to close yesterday at £227.80/t.
• UK feed wheat contracts followed Paris wheat futures movement yesterday, with new crop finding a little support from strong Chicago wheat and maize prices.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €565.00/t, down €3.25/t. Rapeseed futures followed Chicago soyabean and soyameal futures down yesterday.
• Nearby Brent crude oil futures settled at $81.21/barrel yesterday, down $1.49/barrel.
• UK natural gas futures closed yesterday at 337.13p/therm. This afternoon, it is trading at 310.5p/therm (13:00).

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - What factors are driving grain markets?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 20 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May23) fell £0.50/t over yesterday’s session, closing at £239.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-23) ended the session at £228.00/t, also down £0.50/t from Friday’s close.
• Global grain prices slid slightly as some muchneeded rain hit Argentina’s drought stricken agricultural areas over the weekend. Though ongoing issues with maize plantings from dry weather in the country remains a concern.
• The welcomed rain in Argentina also pressured soyabean prices. Chicago soyabean futures (May23) closed at £539.07/t yesterday, down £7.25/t over the session.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May23) closed at £563.00/t yesterday, a €3.75/t fall over the session.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Early Bird Survey confirms winter cropping rise for harvest 23

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 21 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £238.90/t, down £0.10/t on Monday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) lost £0.60/t over the same period, closing at £227.40/t yesterday.
• Grain exports out of the Black Sea continue to pressure prices and rains in Argentina slightly eased soil moisture concerns following ongoing drought conditions for soyabeans and maize plantings.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €562.50/t yesterday, down €0.50/t on Monday’s close.
• On Monday the European commission’s MARS report for crop monitoring in Europe was released, indicating winter crops are generally faring well. Despite the drop in temperatures in the first half of December, frost damage is low and concentrated in central and eastern Germany and Poland. Low temperatures have also improved crop hardening. Warmer-than-usual temperatures enabled late sowing of winter crops in the Black Sea region.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Reduced demand pressuring crude oil

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 22 December 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £243.50/t, gaining £4.60/t on Tuesday’s close. New crop (Nov-23) closed at £230.50/t, gaining £3.10/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market rose yesterday in line with Paris and Chicago wheat markets. Wheat markets were supported as there is forecast for cold temperatures in the U.S. Midwest, which brings potential of winter kill given there isn’t any snow cover. Over the next three days, it is expected to get very cold but will warm up from Christmas day.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €575.00/t, gaining €12.50/t on Tuesday’s close. Rapeseed was supported inline with crude oil markets and soyabeans, given a lack of soil moisture in Argentina which is underpinning the market currently. Although there have been some recent rains, there are questions over how much these crops could be revised down by from the on-going drought in the country.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Arable crop production ranges for 2023

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 05 January 2023

• May-23 UK feed wheat futures closed at £241.00/t yesterday, down £5.00/t from Tuesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract also lost ground, closing at £229.15/t, down £2.00/t over the same period.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) settled at €592.50/t yesterday, down €6.00/t from Tuesday’s close. Rapeseed prices followed the direction of soyabean markets yesterday, which were pressured by falls in crude oil, as well as concerns over global demand.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - This weeks market movers

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 06 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £241.50/t, up £0.50/t on Wednesday’s close. New crop (Nov-23) closed at £231.10/t, up £1.95/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market followed the Paris market up yesterday with a weaker euro adding to support. Further global support was from bargain buying. However large supplies from the Black Sea put a cap on the gains.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €587.75/t, down €4.75/t on Wednesday’s close. This movement followed pressure in soyabean markets from worries of a global recession and weakening demand for commodities across the board.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Argentina soyabean plantings still a critical watchpoint

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 11 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £233.00/t, down £4.00/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £226.50/t, down £2.20/t over the same period.
• Domestic prices followed both the Chicago and Paris wheat markets down yesterday. With the US market closing lower from weak demand and a firmer US dollar.
• Wheat markets continue to be pressured by competitive Black Sea supplies. It has been reported that Egypt’s state grain buyer, GASC, has provisionally booked 60Kt of Russian wheat in an international tender yesterday.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €568.25/t yesterday, down €3.50/t from Monday’s close. The contract followed the respective Chicago soyabean contract down, as demand for U.S. soyabeans is slow, with the arrival of South American supplies to the market.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - How low can wheat go?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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