AHDB daily market commentary

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 12 January 2023

• May-23 UK feed wheat futures climbed £1.10/t from Tuesday’s close, settling at £234.10/t yesterday. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £228.00/t, gaining £1.50/t over the same period.
• European wheat markets were up on hopes of improvements in the economy, as well as being supported by upward movements in US prices. Chicago wheat futures closed up yesterday on the back of technical trading and markets aligning ahead of today’s trio of USDA reports.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €571.50/t yesterday, gaining €3.25/t from Tuesday’s close.
• Rapeseed markets tracked soyabean markets up yesterday. As well as traders aligning ahead today’s USDA reports, support for soyabeans also came following Rosario Grains Exchange cutting its Argentinian soyabean production estimate by 12Mt to 37Mt.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - GB animal feed production at 6-year low from July to November

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 13 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £233.50/t yesterday, down £0.60/t from Wednesday's close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £228.00/t, seeing no change in price over yesterday’s session.
• UK prices followed continental wheat prices down, as cheap Russian exports and forecasts of a large Australian crop pressured grain prices ahead of the release of yesterday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate report.
• Paris rapeseed (May-23) gained €3.25/t yesterday, ending the session at €574.75/t. The Nov-23 contract closed at €575.25/t, up €0.75/t over the same period.
• Global oilseed markets were supported following a 12Mt cut in Argentina’s soyabean production estimate to 37Mt by the Rosario Grain Exchange due to the ongoing drought. Furthermore, yesterday the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also revised Argentina’s production down to 41Mt from the 48Mt previously estimated, while the USDA have estimated the crop at 45.5Mt (read more below).

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Unexpected revisions in latest USDA reports

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 18 January 2023

• UK feed wheat (May-23) futures closed yesterday at £230.00/t, down £2.05/t from Monday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £222.50/t, down £3.80/t over the same period.
• UK wheat futures followed European markets down yesterday, despite strength in US wheat futures.
• Paris rapeseed (May-23) futures closed at €560.00/t yesterday, down €6.75/t from Monday’s close. Rapeseed prices followed weakness in palm oil yesterday, more on this below.
• Nearby brent crude oil futures closed yesterday at $85.92/barrel, up $1.46/barrel from Monday’s close (+1.7%).

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Mid-week market drivers

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 19 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £230.50/t yesterday, up £0.50/t from Tuesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) were up £0.95/t over the same period, closing at £223.45/t yesterday.
• Potential demand for European wheat from Tuesday’s Algerian tender for c.600Kt wheat and uncertainty surrounding Russia’s exports supported prices. Meanwhile, US wheat markets followed maize markets lower on profit-taking and rains in Argentina easing dryness concerns.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €543.50/t, down €16.50/t from Tuesday’s close. European rapeseed markets fell following a proposal from the German environment minister to retract the usage of crop-based biofuel in the country. Pressure was also felt from downward movements in soyabean markets on the back of improved weather in Argentina.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - UK wheat export pace increases, but is it enough to avoid a large carry-out?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 20 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £227.50/t, down £3.00/t on Wednesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £220.75/t down £2.70/t over the same period.
• The domestic market followed both the Paris and Chicago wheat market down yesterday. Chicago wheat was down from spill over weakness from maize and soyabeans, as well as lacklustre export demand for US supplies given strong global competition. Paris wheat futures fell as competition from cheaper Black Sea supplies continues to weigh on the market.
• Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has estimated that Russia will export 55-60Mt of grain in the 2022/23 season, and that there is no plans to lower the grain export quota. (Interfax, Refinitiv). But given the current situation around logistics and insurance, there are questions to whether export pace will reach these forecasts.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) continued their weekly pressure, closing yesterday at €540.25/t, down €3.25/t on Wednesday’s close. Following the pressure on the Canadian canola market from the reduction in US soyabean oil prices, which dampened crushers demand for oilseeds. Further to that, much improved weather in Argentina weighed on oilseeds markets – read more below.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Argentinian rains to bear on the market?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 24 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures prices followed US markets down yesterday (read more below), with the May-23 contract losing £3.50/t from Friday's close, settling at £223.25/t. The Nov-23 contract also lost ground, closing at £217.50/t, down £3.60/t over the same period.
• Paris rapeseed futures prices (May-23) closed at €525.75/t yesterday, down €10.50/t from Friday's close. EU rapeseed markets followed the direction of Canadian canola markets, which fell yesterday on the back of weak export demand. Rapeseed markets were also pressured by falls in soyabean prices, following much needed rains in Argentina.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Rains on the Plains pressures prices

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 25 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £223.00/t yesterday, down £0.25/t on Monday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) gained £1.80/t over the same period, closing at £219.30/t yesterday.
• New crop futures tracked Paris and Chicago futures up off the back of bargain buying and investor optimism. This is after being pressured from prospects of rain in both Argentina (for maize) and the U.S. (for winter wheat).
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €529.00/t, up €3.25/t on Monday’s close.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Vegetable oil market roundup

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 26 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) gained £3.00/t yesterday, ending the session at £226.00/t. New crop prices (Nov-23) closed at £221.90/t, gaining £2.60/t over the same period.
• UK prices tracked global price movement, as grain markets were supported on concerns that the Russia and Ukraine war is escalating, potentially impacting grain supply from two of the world’s major exporters.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-23) also firmed yesterday for the first time in six sessions due to technical buying. The contract gained $3.67/t to close at $549.81/t. However, beneficial rains across Argentina limited gains.
• Palm oil futures hit more than a six-week low yesterday, though bargain buying has seen prices rise again this morning. For more insight into the vegetable oil market, see yesterday’s round-up.
• The Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has today set out more detail on both the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) and Countryside Stewardship (CS). Click here to learn more.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Human and industrial demand up but animal feed down

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 27 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £231.15/t, gaining £5.15/t on Wednesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £225.05/t, gaining £3.15/t over the same period.
• Our domestic wheat market followed both Chicago and Paris up yesterday. Chicago wheat futures were supported by signs of rising demand following the latest USDA export sales figures, and concerns about reduced production out of the Black Sea region.
• The Ukraine Grain Association project that Ukraine’s 2023 wheat crop will not exceed 16Mt, as plantings reduce due to the on-going conflict.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €544.50/t, gaining €15.25/t on Wednesday’s close. Support filtered from both crude oil and Chicago soyabeans, which were up from strong U.S. export data.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Strong demand for soyabeans, what does that mean for rapeseed?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 31 January 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £230.90/t, gaining £1.10/t from Friday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £225.30/t, also gaining £1.10/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market firmed with both the Chicago and Paris markets yesterday. Support was from concerns over winter kill, as temperatures in the US plains are expected to drop this week. However, going into the weekend, temperatures along the plains are going to warm up.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €544.75/t, gaining €4.25/t from Friday’s close. Rapeseed prices are riding off the back of support in soyabeans at the moment, with dry conditions persisting across parts of Argentina – find out more below.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Short term bullish news supports rapeseed

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 01 February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £232.45/t, up £1.55/t over the session. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £225.90/t, up £0.60/t over the same period.
• Domestic and European futures followed strength in US markets yesterday, supported by weather risk for US winter wheat, as well as new global demand. Jordan’s state buyer purchased 60Kt of milling wheat on Tuesday, with Romanian origin expected to be supplied. Egypt also called a wheat import tender for Thursday.
• Despite above average rainfall this month, the US winter wheat crop conditions have not yet made a significant recovery as drought remains in many areas. Released yesterday, top grower Kansas had 21% of winter wheat rated ‘good to excellent’, up 2 percentage points (pp) from the start of January. In Texas the ‘good to excellent’ rating is 14%, up 3pp from last week. Whereas Oklahoma ‘good to excellent’ ratings were at 17%, down from 38% a month ago.
• Paris rapeseed (May-23) futures closed yesterday at €545.00/t, near unchanged (up €0.25/t) over the session.

Carbon Markets Webpages - The AHDB have now launched our new Carbon Markets webpages. Below you can find the link to these, providing you with the latest information, guidance, and analysis of emerging developments in carbon markets to help you navigate through this rapidly developing area.

• Why carbon matters to your business
• How carbon markets work
• How to get involved in carbon markets

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - China, where next for maize and soyabean demand?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 02 February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £231.70/t, down £0.75/t on Tuesday’s close. New crops futures (Nov-23) closed at £225.90/t, unchanged over the same period.
• Our domestic old crop followed the European market down, pressured by competitive Black Sea supplies being offered to North African and Middle Eastern demand.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €541.00/t, down €4.00/t on Tuesday’s close. Following pressure on the Chicago soyabean market, which was down due to Brazilian soyabean harvest, and the prospects are very likely that they will produce and harvest a record soyabean crop.
• This morning we have released the UK human and industrial cereal usage and GB animal feed production for the month of December 2022. The total raw material usage and total feed production on animal feed is down 4.8% and 4.9%, respectively, in comparison to December 2021. Total flour production for December is up 1.8% over the same period. Brewing, malting, and distilling demand remains strong on the year.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - UK weather outlook for winter cropping

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 03 February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) gained £2.05/t yesterday, ending the session at £233.75/t. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £227.50/t, a £1.60/t rise over the same period.
• UK prices tracked upward US price movements yesterday on the back of technical buying, however reminders of strong export competition specifically from the Black Sea region capped any major gains.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €544.25/t yesterday, gaining €3.25/t over the session. New crop prices (Nov-23) rose €1.75/t over the same period, to close at €543.25/t.
• Rapeseed markets continue to feel support from rising soyabean prices, as dry conditions in Argentina impact the country’s soyabean crop. Read more on this in Tuesday’s GMD.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published -Human and industrial cereal usage round-up

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 07 February 2023

• Old crop UK feed wheat futures prices (May-23) closed yesterday at £235.90/t, up £1.55/t from Friday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £230.10/t, gaining £1.20/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market followed Paris wheat futures up, which were supported by strong international demand. There were two new tenders issued by Algeria to buy 50Kt of soft milling wheat yesterday. Also, South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased around 65Kt of feed wheat in a private deal on Friday, with a mixed origin.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €549.75/t yesterday, up €4.50/t from Friday’s close. Rapeseed prices followed upward movements in palm oil markets, following Indonesia reviewing its palm oil export quota (Refinitiv). Meanwhile, Chicago soyabean futures were pressured yesterday by concerns for the future of US sales to China due to geo-political issues.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Russian wheat to continue to weigh on the market?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 09 February 2023

• Old crop UK feed wheat futures prices (May-23) closed yesterday at £240.20/t, up £0.70/t from Tuesday's close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £232.95/t, gaining £0.70/t over the same period.
• UK feed wheat futures continue to follow upward movements to Paris milling wheat futures, as strong demand continues for EU origin wheat.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €554.25/t yesterday, up €0.75/t from Tuesday's close.
• The USDA's WASDE release yesterday included large cuts to Argentina's corn and soybean harvests, coming in lower than initial trade estimates (read more on this below). Argentina is set to experience more heat and dryness over the next two weeks which has led to Chicago soybean futures swinging between losses and gains in Asian trading this morning, with US wheat and corn markets also subdued since the USDA publication (Refinitiv).

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - South American focus in latest WASDE revisions

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 15th February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £245.00/t yesterday, up £2.50/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-23 (new crop) contract also gained £2.50/t over the same period to close at £241.50/t. UK markets have followed the direction of the Paris wheat markets.
• Concern over Ukraine’s grain corridor grows, as fighting escalates, lending some support to markets, more on this in today’s analysis.
• A record wheat crop in India is due to be harvested in March, forecast to rise 4% to 112.2Mt according to the Indian government. This is down to high prices incentivising increased area, use of high-yielding varieties and favourable weather. This could replenish depleted stocks and bring down domestic prices, though an extension of the ban on wheat exports (due to expire in May) is still being considered. A record rapeseed crop is also due in 2023.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) settled at €553.50/t yesterday, down €1.75/t from Monday’s close following pressure in US soyabean markets.
• Harvest progress of the record Brazilian soyabean crop continues, with 17% complete on Thursday last week according to consultancy AgRural, is putting pressure on US soybean futures. Chicago May-23 soyabean futures fell 0.4% to yesterday’s close.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Black Sea Initiative to keep markets volatile short term: Grain market daily

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 16 February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £242.00/t yesterday, down £3.00/t from Tuesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £238.50/t, also down £3.00/t over the same period.
• Domestic prices followed global market movement down yesterday, after concerns in the US economy, regarding hikes in interest rates, saw US wheat markets weaken. However, major losses were curbed by ongoing fears about the future of the grain export corridor in Ukraine.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-23) also felt some pressure yesterday, closing at $558.26/t, down $3.86/t from Tuesday’s close.
• US soyabean markets are reacting to the ongoing harvest of Brazil’s bumper crop, with AgRural saying on Monday that the harvest was 17% complete.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) followed soyabean markets down yesterday, closing at €550.25/t, down €3.25/t over the session.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - EU 2023/24 grain outlook: Grain market daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 17th February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £240.75/t yesterday, down £1.25/t from Wednesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £236.75/t, down £1.75/t over the same period. UK prices followed the movements in Paris and Chicago wheat markets.
• European wheat prices fell to a one-week low yesterday on continued pressure from competitive Black Sea exports and weakness in the Chicago market.
• Yesterday the International Grains Council cut their forecast for 2022/23 global maize production by 8.5Mt, with the estimate now at 1,153Mt. With the cut mainly driven by the US (-5.1Mt) and Argentina (-2.5Mt).
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) followed the US soyabean market up yesterday, closing at €553.25/t, up €3.00/t from Wednesday’s close – read more below to what’s been driving this.
• The latest Food & Farming podcast is now live discussing the latest cereals and oilseed Agri Market Outlooks.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Soyabeans to keep rapeseed supported short term? Grain market daily

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 21st February 2023

• May-23 UK feed wheat futures closed at £241.10/t yesterday, down £0.15 from Friday’s close. The Nov-23 contract gained £0.20/t over the same period to close at £237.10/t. UK and Paris wheat both traded at a narrow range on Monday due to the US market’s being closed.
• Further to that, there was little change as cheap Black Sea supplies continue to pressure prices but are balanced by ongoing speculation over the future of the grain corridor deal.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) fell €7.00/t from Friday’s close, to settle at €557.50/t yesterday.
• Yesterday, the European Union’s crop monitoring service highlighted a lack of rain in southern areas of Europe including France, Italy and Spain as a cause for concern ahead of the spring growing season. Something to watch as we move through the season.
• A new article: Understanding regulated carbon markets, has been published on our carbon market webpage.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - How strong will EU wheat imports be this season?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 22nd February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £236.25/t yesterday, down £4.85/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-23 contract closed at £236.00/t, down £1.10/t over the same period. Domestic prices followed the global market down yesterday. The US market was down due to strength in the US dollar and export competition, while the Paris market was down due to chart-based selling and export competition.
• A winter storm is set to hit the US this week, with heavy snowfall across the northern Plains and Midwest, but precipitation is expected to miss the drought hit areas further south of the Plains – a key watchpoint for US winter wheat conditions.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) followed the wider oilseed complex up yesterday, closing at €560.75/t, up €3.25/t. The oilseed market is still focused on that on-going drought in Argentina.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/where-now-for-wheat-prices-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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