Australian livestock Industry Price Collapse

[TelesnaAg]

Gents convert 7500 aud acre to sterling, 3,919 quid an acre.

Ant....

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

My new neighbor would've been better off with that than the 132ac next door to me.... But I suppose at least he has a house where he is ...

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

How difficult is it just to build a house on that land?

 

[EasyNewz]

The ozzie cattle and sheep markets have more than halved in 9 months, and every week trending lower, elnino has spooked many and numbers flood onto the market, restockers arent game to buy, feedlots a little nervous but we do have plenty of grain.

Cattle prices were at record highs 15 months ago, but the crash is so bad people are shooting sheep.

This has a much wider effect rather than just reduced income.

Every time there is an elnino forming now people will start to unload so i expect national herd to decrease and stay down,
i think weve seen our highest numbers like the dairy sector production, its on the decline.

So wider effects.
Land prices
Job and profit stability will make people leave and never come back
Young people leasing land with financed stock will be forced out, i know of some people already.
Finance requirements will now increase as banks will no doubt have alot of restructuring going on since rates have near trippled.
Alot of older people will now leave, theres alot of property going up for sale now.
It is just another dynamic but harsh ones like this tend to have lasting effects.
The dealerships run of record gear sales will now stop, always going to happen i suspect, lower employment numbers.
District spending will be alot lower so wider impact felt.

So moving forward is ag becoming the impossible industry, with regulation and costs and wild swings in income? Who wants to go into a business where you have to shoot stock etc.

Its a climate changers dream come true but our ag industry will shrink and that means less food for overseas, we will always have enough.

Food shortages i believe will become a thing and another climate change tool.

Hard times, i have cattle that i will most likely loose money on albeit not to large amd i can absorb because i work, if i was just starting out and full time farming id be gone.

Ant....

This was on the free Easy Newz App last week. Have to click the link from your mobile (app story here)

Dry weather is forcing Australian livestock producers to shrink their herd.

Agriculture is once again booming in Australia. Canberra and Beijing have reconciled, opening up the world’s largest commodity market. Australian producers responded with record crops and an increased livestock herd.

According to 2023 projections from Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the national sheep flock was expected to grow to its highest level since 2007, climbing to 78.75m head. MLA also projected record lamb production. The national cattle herd was projected to reach its highest level since 2014, at 28.7m head.

The cycle reverses as producers prepare for El Niño and lower supplies. Analysts expect all crop production will fall back toward its 10-year average and more than 30% below a year ago. Animal prices have been falling as slaughter rates pick up.

Smith says the price for young cattle, measured through the eastern young cattle indicator, had dropped 50% since the start of 2023 while slaughter rates remained high, suggesting people are not restocking their herds.

Live and feeder cattle futures have been resilient, making new highs recently. Speculators were net long more than 15% of open interest in feeder cattle and nearly 25% of live cattle futures. The global cattle market remains tight, and weather will drive production decisions for the US, Brazil, and Australia in the months ahead.

 

[unlacedgecko]

Gents convert 7500 aud acre to sterling, 3,919 quid an acre.

Ant....

£4,000 per cow space. I remember the McDonalds (of Northern Territory fame) saying they never pay more for land than the value of the cattle it could support.

 

[TelesnaAg]

How difficult is it just to build a house on that land?

Easy enough, 500k aud get something very nice.

Ant...

 

[TelesnaAg]

£4,000 per cow space. I remember the McDonalds (of Northern Territory fame) saying they never pay more for land than the value of the cattle it could support.

No such thing here anymore.

Long gone.

Ant...

 

[TelesnaAg]

The govt weather forecastors wiped circa 14 billion off Australias ag economy this year and into next.

They were salivating on the prospect of some extreme climate so they could feed the leftist propaganda machine.

Failed predictions and caused people to go bust.

Many other private forecasts using oz and japanese weather data said it was too early to tell of there would be correlated weather to elnino...not the BOM they went all in.

Ant...

 

[Steel]

The El Niño was not to bad here. Dryland Wheat was doing 4 to 4.5 t/ha.
Spring irrigated wheat looks like it should do about 7 tons.
Looking ford to a dry El Niño harvest and we just got 50 to 60 mm here and up to 200 mm not far away.
Hope grain quality has not suffered to much.

Stock prices have recovered a lot too.

 

[TelesnaAg]

The El Niño was not to bad here. Dryland Wheat was doing 4 to 4.5 t/ha.
Spring irrigated wheat looks like it should do about 7 tons.
Looking ford to a dry El Niño harvest and we just got 50 to 60 mm here and up to 200 mm not far away.
Hope grain quality has not suffered to much.

Stock prices have recovered a lot too.

Next friday 20mm maybe down here, im so glad i have hay n silage done.

Some neighbours a few days after me with weather in the forecast? God knows why, its still on the ground with grass growing through it.

Ant...

 

[Steel]

Wheat bunkers 80 km from me. Glad I deliver to a different one.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Alright as long as you weren't warehousing it......

 

[TelesnaAg]

Wheat bunkers 80 km from me. Glad I deliver to a different one.

Where was that at???

Im not aure on how all the insurance works in the grain game, i forget.

Ant...

 

[TelesnaAg]

Wheat bunkers 80 km from me. Glad I deliver to a different one.

This is very odd for a drought year too id suggest.

Weve had 3 wet ones down here so a dry summer is very welcome, give the dirt some recovery , lower water tables etc, cant beat natures cycles.

Ant...

 

[Lowland1]

The El Niño was not to bad here. Dryland Wheat was doing 4 to 4.5 t/ha.
Spring irrigated wheat looks like it should do about 7 tons.
Looking ford to a dry El Niño harvest and we just got 50 to 60 mm here and up to 200 mm not far away.
Hope grain quality has not suffered to much.

Stock prices have recovered a lot too.

We are well into El Niño here with close to 200mm this month . Because it was late we were told it wasn’t coming but it’s here. We are just getting the edge further to the coast they’ve got over double what we we’ve had . I don’t think there’s any conspiracy it’s just difficult to predict the severity. Where my daughter has been it’s been very dry up until the last fortnight or so

 

[TelesnaAg]

We are well into El Niño here with close to 200mm this month . Because it was late we were told it wasn’t coming but it’s here. We are just getting the edge further to the coast they’ve got over double what we we’ve had . I don’t think there’s any conspiracy it’s just difficult to predict the severity. Where my daughter has been it’s been very dry up until the last fortnight or so

Thye can predict elnino because they can see the ocean temp data.

Whatbthey need to admit they cant predict is correlation.

The weather guys i follow also say this, they dont have the marrkers or data points.

A correlating year means elnino plus dry weather.

Non correlation is elnino, and wet summer due to extra heat.

Weve been a bit drier, but also no heat, so we may have less active storm season, north of the ranges in vic and then all the east coast is getting a more active storm season.

Thats where the govt dept stuffed up, they were salivating on drought with record heat to support there narrative.

3 weeks ago they posted 24 will be hot n dry, the japs are now saying lanina highly likely with wet, so if it comes in wet the govt dept os almost defunct in usability.

Ant...

 

[Steel]

Where was that at???

Im not aure on how all the insurance works in the grain game, i forget.

Ant...

Deniliquin

 

[TelesnaAg]

I sold cattle today 30 of em

570kg empty 2.55kg

Bought 12 months ago at 300kg for 4.60ish

Total butt hurt.

Chears govt weather dept...thanks for crashing the market over a drought that never showed.

Ant....

 

[onthehoof]

No one takes any notice of forecasters here as they can’t predict what it’s going to do the day after tomorrow, be really surprised if Aussie forecasters are any better so why did seemingly everyone believe them, the only thing to fear is fear itself

 

[TelesnaAg]

No one takes any notice of forecasters here as they can’t predict what it’s going to do the day after tomorrow, be really surprised if Aussie forecasters are any better so why did seemingly everyone believe them, the only thing to fear is fear itself

It blows my mind how they took data from one agency rather than atleast get more forecastrs opinions, plenty around saying that there was no proof it would be a correlation year with rain to elnino.

Ant...