Cereal farmers...how long will you carry on??

[Bossfarmer]

This post is for straight cereal farmers as I know mixed farmers such as myself are still benefitting from the straw/tattie rent by having arable in the rotation, but how long will you continue if the current grain price (£110-130/t) is to become the normal expected price each year? I know some of you are waiting for prices to jump up to 180 but they're just as likely to drop to 80, the break even price for most is likely to be around current prices so wheres the profit and is this sustainable?

 

[pine_guy]

I'm a mixed farm, don't rent for tatties, sell most my straw for £55/ton +. I've put 40acres down to grass of 100 arable in the last two years. Should have ploughed 20acre back over for wheat this back end. But not worth it. I can make more off it from winter tak sheep. I know I'm not really the type of business you are aiming at. But one that is has already introduced livestock, @Clive, but more for soil health than arable prices I think.

 

[Clive]

This post is for straight cereal farmers as I know mixed farmers such as myself are still benefitting from the straw/tattie rent by having arable in the rotation, but how long will you continue if the current grain price (£110-130/t) is to become the normal expected price each year? I know some of you are waiting for prices to jump up to 180 but they're just as likely to drop to 80, the break even price for most is likely to be around current prices so wheres the profit and is this sustainable?

cost of production is significantly below the prices you mention so what's the problem ?

 

[Bossfarmer]

cost of production is significantly below the prices you mention so what's the problem ?

depends if you are in south east England or Scotland, many farmers cop is the current level if you add all costs

 

[Bossfarmer]

I'm a mixed farm, don't rent for tatties, sell most my straw for £55/ton +. I've put 40acres down to grass of 100 arable in the last two years. Should have ploughed 20acre back over for wheat this back end. But not worth it. I can make more off it from winter tak sheep. I know I'm not really the type of business you are aiming at. But one that is has already introduced livestock, @Clive, but more for soil health than arable prices I think.

your saying it wasnt worth putting wheat in but clive says your cop should be much less so u should make plenty of money at it?

 

[Clive]

depends if you are in south east England or Scotland, many farmers cop is the current level if you add all costs

not sure what location has such a massive effect ? I don't get particularly massive yield here or have great soil etc ? drying cost I guess more the further north you go ?


what is your COP / tonne ?

 

[Bossfarmer]

Height above sea level and weather have a large effect on cop, i get 850mm of rain here annually and 400-500ft above sea this is why im not 100% cereals, harvest window much smaller/large combine/dryer/grain drill needed, your cop is no doubt low because of your acreage clive but many cereal growers may only have 200-300 acres in grain

 

[shakerator]

Well to answer your question , if this is the only future of chemical blackgrass control major changes are inevitable in Lincs cambs Essex etc
http://www.fwi.co.uk/arable/new-herbicide-offers-fresh-blackgrass-control-option.htm

Atlantis must be off patent soon surely ?

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

not sure what location has such a massive effect ? I don't get particularly massive yield here or have great soil etc ? drying cost I guess more the further north you go ?


what is your COP / tonne ?

Many don't actually know. That's half the problem.

 

[Colin]

Height above sea level and weather have a large effect on cop, i get 850mm of rain here annually and 400-500ft above sea this is why im not 100% cereals, harvest window much smaller/large combine/dryer/grain drill needed, your cop is no doubt low because of your acreage clive but many cereal growers may only have 200-300 acres in grain

850mm call that wet! Maybe your gauge has a hole[emoji41] HERE we have been over 1200 for the last 3 years. Mixed arable farming, roots (lots) and cereals I guess my advantage is that we are lighter and only 40m asl.
It's not what ye hae it's what ye dae wi what ye hae.

 

[Clive]

Height above sea level and weather have a large effect on cop, i get 850mm of rain here annually and 400-500ft above sea this is why im not 100% cereals, harvest window much smaller/large combine/dryer/grain drill needed, your cop is no doubt low because of your acreage clive but many cereal growers may only have 200-300 acres in grain

My low cop is not really due to acreage, I reckon it could be lower if I was only farming a couple hundred acres. Scale is not the answer to improved margins, it can be vey wasteful. I can't begin to compete with the efficiency of a well run couple hundred acre family farm that using the right inputs and techniques

I understand at the extremes you might have shorter seasons but on the plus side you get longer days / more sun and more water ?

We get 850mm rain here btw

 

[Clive]

Well to answer your question , if this is the only future of chemical blackgrass control major changes are inevitable in Lincs cambs Essex etc
http://www.fwi.co.uk/arable/new-herbicide-offers-fresh-blackgrass-control-option.htm

Atlantis must be off patent soon surely ?

How much yield is BG actually costing though ?

Every year we hear about good yields from farmers in the east, if it was so bad why are farm outputs not dramatically falling ?

 

[shakerator]

How much yield is BG actually costing though ?

Every year we hear about good yields from farmers in the east, if it was so bad why are farm outputs not dramatically falling ?

I think there is less w wheat in the east as a result of BG

10% losses on modest infestations

Have seen 80% yield loss though.

But don't forget stacking is routine now and your spending 1t/ha on blackgrass herbicides alone

 

[Bossfarmer]

850mm call that wet! Maybe your gauge has a hole[emoji41] HERE we have been over 1200 for the last 3 years. Mixed arable farming, roots (lots) and cereals I guess my advantage is that we are lighter and only 40m asl.
It's not what ye hae it's what ye dae wi what ye hae.

Thats a lot of rain, what area are you in?

 

[Bossfarmer]

My low cop is not really due to acreage, I reckon it could be lower if I was only farming a couple hundred acres. Scale is not the answer to improved margins, it can be vey wasteful. I can't begin to compete with the efficiency of a well run couple hundred acre family farm that using the right inputs and techniques

I understand at the extremes you might have shorter seasons but on the plus side you get longer days / more sun and more water ?

We get 850mm rain here btw

Thats an average last year and this year have been wetter, can a small family farm really compete though if they buy all the kit and pay themselves a FAIR wage?

 

[crazy_bull]

My Scottish mate who has no blackgrass has a MUCH lower COP than his counter part in luton, don't ask me the figures only recalling a conversation over dinner last shooting season.

C B

 

[spikeislander]

Well to answer your question , if this is the only future of chemical blackgrass control major changes are inevitable in Lincs cambs Essex etc
http://www.fwi.co.uk/arable/new-herbicide-offers-fresh-blackgrass-control-option.htm

Atlantis must be off patent soon surely ?

10% better than Atlantis! So that's 10% control wow!

 

[Bossfarmer]

My Scottish mate who has no blackgrass has a MUCH lower COP than his counter part in luton, don't ask me the figures only recalling a conversation over dinner last shooting season.

C B

How many acres does the chap grow?

 

[fudge]

This post is for straight cereal farmers as I know mixed farmers such as myself are still benefitting from the straw/tattie rent by having arable in the rotation, but how long will you continue if the current grain price (£110-130/t) is to become the normal expected price each year? I know some of you are waiting for prices to jump up to 180 but they're just as likely to drop to 80, the break even price for most is likely to be around current prices so wheres the profit and is this sustainable?

Well I understand austerity is at an end so there should be plenty of Monopoly money to go round!

 

[crazy_bull]

How many acres does the chap grow?

from memory many thousands.

C B