Cereals...gross margin at different yeilds?

[john63]

Have been thinking recently...surely it isn't always the case that the greatest gross margin occurs at greatest yeild?

Yet in the farming press, it seems that it is? We rarely see articles about lower input systems.

Sorry for the random and disjoin6 thread, just thought it might be an interesting discussion.

 

[Lincsman]

The farming press is mainly paid for by advertising by the supply industry, hence writing articals about not spending isnt allowed, but you are right... a £1 not spent means £5 does not have to be earned.

 

[teslacoils]

Despite all the breeding, sdhis and all that, I'd warrant most of us would still do the best by planting "11stone" of Claire or consort in early October, litre of mantra at T1 and T2, and 180kg/ha (1st wheat) shoved on in two splits half when the daffs are out and half a month after. Over a 5 year average.

 

[cousinjack]

Despite all the breeding, sdhis and all that, I'd warrant most of us would still do the best by planting "11stone" of Claire or consort in early October, litre of mantra at T1 and T2, and 180kg/ha (1st wheat) shoved on in two splits half when the daffs are out and half a month after. Over a 5 year average.

Out of interest... what kind of yield would you expect from that...? 3t/ac ?
2?

 

[cousinjack]

Yield does seem to be a major factor in profit...

I'm considering trying a low input idea next yr... little N ... minimum fung and just cleaned seed ..

Worth a go !

 

[warksfarmer]

Have been thinking recently...surely it isn't always the case that the greatest gross margin occurs at greatest yeild?

Yet in the farming press, it seems that it is? We rarely see articles about lower input systems.

Sorry for the random and disjoin6 thread, just thought it might be an interesting discussion.

You’ll never see it because all the press are in the back pockets of the advertisers. The input industry has absolutely shafted farmers over the last 30 years and it’s a massive environmental disaster. I hope it comes back to haunt them at some point. They’ve midsold to us all and we’ve lapped it up due to fabricated trial data.

Biggest profit comes from stripping back the business infrastructure to start with. Then late drilling, seed off the heap, spring herbicide, 2 x cheap fungicide. 180-200kg N & S and then walk away.
No T-sum program, no P & K, no snake oils and admit what your soils max yield is and then grow accordingly. Average wheat yield in the uk is 3.3t/acre. Since when has any of the yield records been profitable?

 

[Farmer Fin]

Because UK fixed costs are generally high it pushes you to go for yield to dilute costs in the hope of a better profit! It’s profit per ha that counts, how you get that is up to you and your crystal ball. Some of the ROI figures you see on chems / seed dressings look like they must be picked out of the sky.

 

[warksfarmer]

Some of the ROI figures you see on chems / seed dressings look like they must be picked out of the sky.

Yep they are all a load of crap either entirely made up or at best off a manicured plot looked after on a daily basis.

 

[Farmer Roy]

Have been thinking recently...surely it isn't always the case that the greatest gross margin occurs at greatest yeild?

Yet in the farming press, it seems that it is? We rarely see articles about lower input systems.

Sorry for the random and disjoin6 thread, just thought it might be an interesting discussion.

you can waste a lot of money chasing highest yield

highest profit is far more important . . .

 

[Flat 10]

The other thing you are forgetting is sale price. Another thing out of your control.

 

[Brisel]

Have been thinking recently...surely it isn't always the case that the greatest gross margin occurs at greatest yeild?

Yet in the farming press, it seems that it is? We rarely see articles about lower input systems.

Sorry for the random and disjoin6 thread, just thought it might be an interesting discussion.

The key to profit is a good net margin. We’re encouraged by the inputs industry that you have to speculate to accumulate and chasing extra yield with the latest varieties/fertilsers/biostimulants/fungicides etc which will dilute said costs. We are trapped in a hamster wheel of spending ever more, pursuing the kind of yields that we read about in Farmers Weekly but in reality the much smaller gains are more than outweighed by cost increases.

If you look at the regular UK wheat yield winner in the YEN group, Tim Lamyman, he spends £150/ha on biostimulants to get a yield in excess of that spend. He doesn’t achieve that every year and has withdrawn occasionally when the yield hasn’t covered that extra. When he does get the very high yield, his cost of production is very low.

Going back to net margin, there are no till growers making more overall margin from 3.5 t/ac low input crops with one small tractor than a higher input subsoiler, plough, press, power harrow then cultivator drill, all towed by high hp tractors doing 4.5 t/ac. I’m not saying that the plough is evil - as a break crop between root crops on silt or sand soils you need to put steel in to fix compaction.

 

[Brisel]

ive repeatedly pointed all this out recently on twitter with many articles about Yen and compared it to Simon cowles article about his 7t/ha wheat with no inputs.
The angry replies, denial and questioning that I got from farmers was ridiculous. The head of the association of independent crop consultants actually replied and said that morally, to ‘feed the world’ we should be spending money on inputs to get 12t/ha even if the margin is the same as 7t/ha!! He even insulted my moral and ethical stance for saying that I would rather grow 7t/ha that 12t for the same margin from a risk management point of view. Apparently it’s my moral duty to ‘feed the world’.
unfortunately many of the supposed highly respected agronomists and farmers in positions of power are old dinosaurs stuck in the 20th century mindset of grow more and bang the gear on (with abit of waffle about a conservation flower margin and pest thresholds thrown in to make them look better).

I can’t believe you got that from the AICC. Who are you referring to? The current chairman? Something tells me you were provoking a response at the time

 

[Flat 10]

Much as I don’t always agree with @ajd132 in this case I’m totally on your side.

 

[Brisel]

I wasn’t, it was the current chairman. I said something along the lines of ‘why would I grow 12t/ha when I can grow 7t/ha for the same margin with far less risk’. I will send you screenshots!

Thanks for that. Sean Sparling clearly doesn’t have the same knowledge of how grain prices work as he does how to grow crops.

 

[ajd132]

Thanks for that. Sean Sparling clearly doesn’t have the same knowledge of how grain prices work as he does how to grow crops.

Sorry accidentally deleted my previous post. Maybe a mod can put it back up? He seemed to have little understanding of anything other than yield. You’ve seen the thread now!

being told by and ethically questioned by an independent agronomist in relation to why I want to grow less, risk less capital and make more money makes me even more suspicious of the whole industry.

 

[ajd132]

I would say, and this is not the fault of farmers or the agronomists. There is a disconnect between understanding of on farm costs from the agronomists side, and for many farmers little understanding of the agronomic side of things. An agronomist would presume and has probably been taught that yield means higher GROSS Margin when as @Brisel said its NET margin that matters, and this is down to overheads which are often not known or way too high. Better integration and understanding of this between both parties could make a massive difference.

 

[warksfarmer]

I can’t believe you got that from the AICC. Who are you referring to? The current chairman? Something tells me you were provoking a response at the time

Sorry accidentally deleted my previous post. Maybe a mod can put it back up? He seemed to have little understanding of anything other than yield. You’ve seen the thread now!

being told by and ethically questioned by an independent agronomist in relation to why I want to grow less, risk less capital and make more money makes me even more suspicious of the whole industry.

I’d tell that idiot to f**k off. What an imbecile. He’s the problem and should be relieved of his position. Pushing chemistry is a crime against the environment.

 

[Cowcorn]

Have been thinking recently...surely it isn't always the case that the greatest gross margin occurs at greatest yeild?

Yet in the farming press, it seems that it is? We rarely see articles about lower input systems.

Sorry for the random and disjoin6 thread, just thought it might be an interesting discussion.

Forget turnover ,its LEFTOVER that counts in any system. High yields can be achieved with max inputs but just like the gambler who only talks about the winners the input industry never mentions the trials that go pear shaped !!!

 

[teslacoils]

Out of interest... what kind of yield would you expect from that...? 3t/ac ?
2?

In the dry east I'd probably be getting 3.5

Like everything, bit of a rollercoaster. If I were in the wet west, and knew I was going to be rank with septoria then my fungicide costs will be high. Here, my blackgrass costs will be high.

The agronomy view is always either:

This £1 will earn you £2.
Spending this £1 will save you crop from being a write off due to bugs, take all, etc.

This was always the case when we used to grow osr - it was a high initial cost job with hybrid seed, fancy preems and the like just to get to Xmas. Then the profit would be from incremental gains. Contrast to now where osr is a handful of fss into stubble, see if it grows then spray with astrokrrb if you have a crop in late November.

Similarly wheat was late September new seed, preem, peri em plus insecticide just to see if you had a reasonably bg free crop in spring. Contrast to now where spring corn is replacing it as fss, dollop of digestate, blw spray stacked with pgr and cheap fungicides, then combine it.

While not leaving ourselves open for the huge bonanza yields, I'm aiming for the same profit from under half the outlay in terms of £££ and time, meaning my children get to actually see me now.

 

[ajd132]

In the dry east I'd probably be getting 3.5

Like everything, bit of a rollercoaster. If I were in the wet west, and knew I was going to be rank with septoria then my fungicide costs will be high. Here, my blackgrass costs will be high.

The agronomy view is always either:

This £1 will earn you £2.
Spending this £1 will save you crop from being a write off due to bugs, take all, etc.

This was always the case when we used to grow osr - it was a high initial cost job with hybrid seed, fancy preems and the like just to get to Xmas. Then the profit would be from incremental gains. Contrast to now where osr is a handful of fss into stubble, see if it grows then spray with astrokrrb if you have a crop in late November.

Similarly wheat was late September new seed, preem, peri em plus insecticide just to see if you had a reasonably bg free crop in spring. Contrast to now where spring corn is replacing it as fss, dollop of digestate, blw spray stacked with pgr and cheap fungicides, then combine it.

While not leaving ourselves open for the huge bonanza yields, I'm aiming for the same profit from under half the outlay in terms of £££ and time, meaning my children get to actually see me now.

Exactly this, now the gains through inputs are so minimal it’s all about capital and time risk management.