Chae1
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
What about the load in from Hungary? Is there more to come from there? Been told feed barley will be £200/t by January, that would put wheat about £220?
Who knows.
Who knows.
Combinables Price Tracker
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
- Location
- South Shropshire
Makes sense, but £203 May 19 was too much of a temptation for me.Expert? Ex = has been. 'spurt = a drip under pressure!
£200/t is a big resistance line IMO. Expect lots of sales of paper that keep it no higher than that. UK wheat is £10/t too expensive to export so forced harvest sales will have to go somewhere else. You're not alone in believing that store space will be ok so I expect a lot of physical grain staying within these shores. For 7th August there isn't reliable information around as to how bad the NW European harvest really is yet so IMO this is a sentimental market not a fundamental one. Buy a rumour, sell the fact.
Volatility is assured!
My bet is £200/t LIFFE Nov 18 is the peak, so £4.75 above where it is now.
SilliamWhale
Member
It doesn't appear its going to drop like a stone does it?
I've sold half of my wheat at £171 (incl some sold at £150). I'll hold the rest for a bit longer. I don't think the future rises are steep but I don't see a reason to chicken out yet. Even if its the top its still better than a week ago..
I've sold half of my wheat at £171 (incl some sold at £150). I'll hold the rest for a bit longer. I don't think the future rises are steep but I don't see a reason to chicken out yet. Even if its the top its still better than a week ago..
There has been a degree of demand rationing in the past (see IGC graph below) but you're right, most consumers have inelastic demand
https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-sd.aspx
Price indices here. Sorry, couldn't easily put them all on the same graph.
https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-goi.aspx
Expert? Ex = has been. 'spurt = a drip under pressure!
£200/t is a big resistance line IMO. Expect lots of sales of paper that keep it no higher than that. UK wheat is £10/t too expensive to export so forced harvest sales will have to go somewhere else. You're not alone in believing that store space will be ok so I expect a lot of physical grain staying within these shores. For 7th August there isn't reliable information around as to how bad the NW European harvest really is yet so IMO this is a sentimental market not a fundamental one. Buy a rumour, sell the fact.
Volatility is assured!
My bet is £200/t LIFFE Nov 18 is the peak, so £4.75 above where it is now.
AHDB report had some solid northern Eu data yesterday and was rather bullish I thought
4course
Member
- Location
- north yorks
me ,won my own bet see page 443 said 200 may futures on the 8th aug the next nearsest was watford frosty 13 aug and philp who went30 july.there was another db9go who picked the same date as me but qualified his stake by saying if nobody had already taken it, which as initial poster I had. so bit of fun over im now the grain guru for a day and will be having a tot of my own gin tonight, aint life grand
Think Hungary and that region have had a terrible harvest by all accounts I’ve heard
- Location
- Huntingdon
it hit it the other Thurday!!
watfordfrosty
Member
- Location
- northamptonshire
stick your neck out crazy whats the top going to be then
- Location
- Huntingdon
No idea, but I think we will hit it in the next 3 weeks, then everyone will start sorting their life out, demand will be trimmed back, alternatives will be booked etc etc.
C B
watfordfrosty
Member
- Location
- northamptonshire
thanks a sensible take on the matter
- Location
- Huntingdon
Northeastfarmer
Member
- Location
- Cleveland
What’s feed barley today? North east uk
- Location
- Montgomeryshire
I know all the clever folk play at selling forward, to 'lock in their profit', etc but hasn't this year shown that the real clever buggers are those that don't try to outwit the market, and just sit on their hands until they want to sell it?
Personally, I have none of my vast stockpile of barley sold forward, and don't intend to. I will ride this wave for a while longer, before I attempt to flood the market by releasing it all at once.
Personally, I have none of my vast stockpile of barley sold forward, and don't intend to. I will ride this wave for a while longer, before I attempt to flood the market by releasing it all at once.
Chae1
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
No. It's all about averages in my opinion. Sell 1t/acre forward. Spread risk.I know all the clever folk play at selling forward, to 'lock in their profit', etc but hasn't this year shown that the real clever buggers are those that don't try to outwit the market, and just sit on their hands until they want to sell it?
Personally, I have none of my vast stockpile of barley sold forward, and don't intend to. I will ride this wave for a while longer, before I attempt to flood the market by releasing it all at once.
This is first year I can remember when spot has beaten forward sold.
In that position it's easy to forget the years when prices fall. (Like next year). The cure for high prices is high prices and vice versaI know all the clever folk play at selling forward, to 'lock in their profit', etc but hasn't this year shown that the real clever buggers are those that don't try to outwit the market, and just sit on their hands until they want to sell it?
Personally, I have none of my vast stockpile of barley sold forward, and don't intend to. I will ride this wave for a while longer, before I attempt to flood the market by releasing it all at once.
SilliamWhale
Member
Can't you remember 2012?
SilliamWhale
Member
I know all the clever folk play at selling forward, to 'lock in their profit', etc but hasn't this year shown that the real clever buggers are those that don't try to outwit the market, and just sit on their hands until they want to sell it?
Personally, I have none of my vast stockpile of barley sold forward, and don't intend to. I will ride this wave for a while longer, before I attempt to flood the market by releasing it all at once.
I wouldn't say selling forward is trying to outwit the market
I can, I was lucky being pool seller worked massively to my advantage that year.
Those that sold lots forward and then didn't have the crop suffered badly.
Can't actually remember if spot was better than prior forward sold though. Seem to think it was.