Combinables Price Tracker

[4course]

we usually have to sell a few loads at harvest as not enough long term on farm storage, last year we got it all in and could have offered storage space!!!. Things look better this year and so putting a feeler out with a rep said I may have 4-5 load of something to move at or shortly after harvest .Replied if youve got some on the post harvest-xmas pool wouldnt as a fair % of the pool will be moved before middle of oct. makeof that what you will

 

[Bossfarmer]

on the basis of locking into profit as soon as you see it most should surely be selling everything the moment it’s over £100/t

even with daft production costs of £150/t ( have a word !) every grain in the UK should be sold forward right now

Aiming for higher prices is not greed, it’s just good business

Youd do well to grow it for £100/t in a drought year?

 

[An Gof]

Youd do well to grow it for £100/t in a drought year?

Very unlikely, the cost of production per tonne is very dependant on yield

 

[lloyd]

Youd do well to grow it for £100/t in a drought year?

Don't think many would be much under £100/t wheat on an average year.

 

[Brisel]

Don't think many would be much under £100/t wheat on an average year.

I agree. Not unless they are ignoring a lot of overheads.

Edited to add:

The drop in BPS this year of around £10/acre depending on your claim size adds £1.30/t to a 4 t/acre wheat crop at £180/t. Drought taking 1 t/acre at £165/t last year added £55/t to your costs if you didn't cut inputs.

 

[yellow belly]

I know my average cost and average price looking backwards per tonne
but
looking forward for 2021
I know the cost per acre and the price per tonne
the cost per tonne and the sales per acre are big unknowns I have a range based on highest yield and lowest yield
but with the 2012 and 2020 lows and the high 2011 2000 yield the spread between highest and lowest is large

selling some grain pre harvest leaves low yielding years in very negative profit

since 2007 foreword selling only pays when crops look very good wall to wall in the uk and over seas with no issue of too dry too cold too wet

average farm profits are low

 

[Davylad]

I know my average cost and average price looking backwards per tonne
but
looking forward for 2021
I know the cost per acre and the price per tonne
the cost per tonne and the sales per acre are big unknowns I have a range based on highest yield and lowest yield
but with the 2012 and 2020 lows and the high 2011 2000 yield the spread between highest and lowest is large

selling some grain pre harvest leaves low yielding years in very negative profit

since 2007 foreword selling only pays when crops look very good wall to wall in the uk and over seas with no issue of too dry too cold too wet

average farm profits are low

I know my average cost and average price looking backwards per tonne
but
looking forward for 2021
I know the cost per acre and the price per tonne
the cost per tonne and the sales per acre are big unknowns I have a range based on highest yield and lowest yield
but with the 2012 and 2020 lows and the high 2011 2000 yield the spread between highest and lowest is large

selling some grain pre harvest leaves low yielding years in very negative profit

since 2007 foreword selling only pays when crops look very good wall to wall in the uk and over seas with no issue of too dry too cold too wet

average farm profits are low

By the time we all know the above ,we are all harvesting and forward selling will be of little use if the prices had been attractive months earlier... ! .. However forward selling has as many advantages as it has disadvantages..all hinges on how financially independent one is and what’s an acceptable profit margin.. getting the top of the market is an absolute gamble and pure luck ! Just my opinion...

 

[yellow belly]

By the time we all know the above ,we are all harvesting and forward selling will be of little use if the prices had been attractive months earlier... ! .. However forward selling has as many advantages as it has disadvantages..all hinges on how financially independent one is and what’s an acceptable profit margin.. getting the top of the market is an absolute gamble and pure luck ! Just my opinion...

I forward sold 2001 to 2012 which Was fine during times of much lower volatility and surplus world production
since then world supply and demand has been more balanced the surplus built up from the 1980 s has gone this over hung the market the Eu disbanded the intervention storage system

now with a spread of over £80 a tonne and low stock to usage selling forward can lead to worse loss making years
eg sell a percentage 25 % say 1 tonne per acre then harvest comes in 30% down so the remainder is less than 50% at higher prices

the question is what is the new normal in terms of price
before 2007 £ 100 was the top of the market by 2012 over 200 but the low years were 100
are we now in the range 150 to 250 with the uk always net importers
scenario of 1 million acres combinable going into non cropping over the next 5 years
half a million less rape acres and half a million Less cereals

 

[Davylad]

I forward sold 2001 to 2012 which Was fine during times of much lower volatility and surplus world production
since then world supply and demand has been more balanced the surplus built up from the 1980 s has gone this over hung the market the Eu disbanded the intervention storage system

now with a spread of over £80 a tonne and low stock to usage selling forward can lead to worse loss making years
eg sell a percentage 25 % say 1 tonne per acre then harvest comes in 30% down so the remainder is less than 50% at higher prices

the question is what is the new normal in terms of price
before 2007 £ 100 was the top of the market by 2012 over 200 but the low years were 100
are we now in the range 150 to 250 with the uk always net importers
scenario of 1 million acres combinable going into non cropping over the next 5 years
half a million less rape acres and half a million Less cereals

Interesting comment and don’t disagree with your opinion... I’m certainly questioning my forward selling strategy! ... I’m now going to hold back 1/3 or more to sell from January to June to hopefully catch these peaks !

 

[yellow belly]

Interesting comment and don’t disagree with your opinion... I’m certainly questioning my forward selling strategy! ... I’m now going to hold back 1/3 or more to sell from January to June to hopefully catch these peaks !

My strategy is wait till I know what is in store and quality
starts day of harvest

this was the strategy that worked best prior to managed and controlled markets under the Eu
farmers now seeing all prices daily from around the world and harvest reports the day they are published

some trading firms can have information earlier because they have a presence in every market cargil ADM ect

 

[lloyd]

Depending on location Iowa has had the 3rd or 4th driest April
in 150 years with other major corn growing areas in the states
looking dry .
I'd keep an eye on their forecasts before committing too much
forward .At the end of the day the grain market seems to be set mainly by
them and their ability to export .

 

[jackrussell101]

China now sets global commodity prices, and as they grow ever richer they can afford to pay higher and higher prices for food imports, especially corn to feed their massive rapidly growing pork and poultry sectors.

Since the dawn of 2000 when commodity markets hit there lows, £60 a ton was the fallback price of wheat, then we moved up into the late noughties and £120 a ton was the fallback price. Now its increasingly looking like £160 is the new lowest low.

As Napoleon once said "China is a sleeping giant, for when she wakes, she will rock the entire world"

 

[teslacoils]

Let's just keep the inputs under control. Yay for profitability.

 

[bobk]

Let's just keep the inputs under control. Yay for profitability.

I'm thinking fallow next year , or vaseline .

 

[4course]

My strategy is wait till I know what is in store and quality
starts day of harvest

this was the strategy that worked best prior to managed and controlled markets under the Eu
farmers now seeing all prices daily from around the world and harvest reports the day they are published

some trading firms can have information earlier because they have a presence in every market cargil ADM ect

exactly and thats why when the buggers ring up with the patter of ,lock in now, if youve covered costs sell some , if thats your worst sale its still ok, the moon has ample supplies, mars has had a rainfall event, etc etc its all ba--ls ,if you get a call to sell my view is dont cos 9 times out of 10 the guy giving the blurb is only going on what those higher up the chain are telling him to do and they are looking after themselves or their companies profits as am I

 

[Davylad]

exactly and thats why when the buggers ring up with the patter of ,lock in now, if youve covered costs sell some , if thats your worst sale its still ok, the moon has ample supplies, mars has had a rainfall event, etc etc its all ba--ls ,if you get a call to sell my view is dont cos 9 times out of 10 the guy giving the blurb is only going on what those higher up the chain are telling him to do and they are looking after themselves or their companies profits as am I

The grain market is a weather market... anyone that can predict that should be using their talents elsewhere! IMO

 

[4course]

The grain market is a weather market... anyone that can predict that should be using their talents elsewhere! IMO

predicting weather is easy . its just never what you want it to be. ho ho

 

[Davylad]

predicting weather is easy . its just never what you want it to be. ho ho

Well if you can tell me every year where the drought is or will be , I’ll reward you handsomely! Preferably before the event as everyone on this and every other forum is wiser after the event!!

 

[4course]

Well if you can tell me every year where the drought is or will be , I’ll reward you handsomely! Preferably before the event as everyone on this and every other forum is wiser after the event!!

cant predict drought but rain is another matter ,it will rain in the lake district around the 26th of this month as thats when im taking mrs 4 course on a midweek luxury spa break as its our wedding anniversary , it will also rain for several days around the end of june in shropshire as we and another couple of pals are going on a canal boat holiday ,it will also rain just before we decide to bale hay and hail will likely fall when the combine sets of on its way down the lane to cut the osr and its almost certain to absolutely p down when the power harrow has got a tad too far in front of the drill in october on the heaviest soil type. Drought is harder to predict but go for the 1st week of march in the alps more or less guaranteed to be no snow and a thaw

 

[yellow belly]

Now had more than enough rain an inch for grain fill and a sunny cool June will give us descent yield
too much rain and quality will go
the poor headlands and winter water logged fields will not recover to average yields

the rest of the worlds weather will have a bigger impact on prices
watch the maize price in Eu and USA