Combinables Price Tracker

Humble Village Farmer

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Essex
These prices are a bubble waiting to burst. They are simply unaffordable. Majority of cereals goes to livestock. The price of meat and milk has not risen inline with costs, not just here in the UK but across the world. People cannot afford to pay these prices. They will come down as they have before. Very high prices are always followed by very low prices.
Wheat sub £140 next July.
It's called demand destruction when the price gets too high apparently.

Couple of points:

World crops may be reduced by the prohibitive cost of fertiliser (demand destruction possibly).

There's not quite enough grain at the moment, the buyers are hoping for a good harvest in the southern hemisphere. If there's an el nin something (the one which makes Australia wetter and Sound America drier), current prices might start to look cheap.

Grazing animals might get fed less grain, except maybe in the form of forage maize. Pigs and chickens will have to go up in price. There's no further cost cutting options.

If China stop buying so much, prices might ease.

£140 isn't enough to cover growing costs at the moment.
 

Worsall

Member
Arable Farmer
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Thought worth pointing out to all the trade, even though you can get just £200t for feed wheat now, the average price sold to date for harvest 21 is £179/t. That includes forward sales made from May last year and current harvest sales, totalling about 3 million tonnes. I believe more has been sold, but that would take me a long time to see what had been sold forward for the previous 18 months.
This is in comparison with £169/t for the period May2020 to 10th October 2020, for the very poor Harvest 2020.

So in reality, this Harvest 2021 is currently just £10/t better than 2020.

GRAPH KEY
First section is forward sales made from may2020 to Harvest2020 Av £162/t
Second section is sales made from harvest to 10 october 2020 Av £171/t
Third Section is forward sales made from May 2021 to Harvest 21 Av £167/t
Fourth section is sales made from harvest to 10 October 2021 Av £181/t

Average prices have been adjusted for volume sold
 

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