Combinables Price Tracker

[Renaultman]

I needed to move seven loads at harvest. Best deal I was offered on drying etc was simply an August delivered price. I have a contractor cut it, and preferred the calm of being able to cut at 20 percent and get it gone.

So that was a needed decision. At last year's yields, if I sold the balance today I'd have earnt c£1100 per acre from a wheat crop. Plus straw. Plus bps. So not exactly crying about it.

Fair play to those who sell at the top. I aim to be in the top ten percent for yield and price, and bottom ten percent for input costs (price, not per acre). That's about as much as I can manage year on year.

I would just like to be in the top 10% of all of them at the same time once.

 

[Renaultman]

I sold a load at £155 , oops and 2 at £168 , everyone takes a view , I've no regrets .

Same here, been dribbling a bit all the way through but still got a bit left, so not all bad.

 

[yellow belly]

yes its still a massive discount to old crop really

The £30 spread is about what you would expect

early bird planting puts next years wheat crop at about a bit bigger area than this year so given
average yield or better the uk will grow enough for the demand

this year even though we are likely to only have just enough the 240 May futures is about the level it would cost to export
another late harvest and it could be tight in august

not selling 2022 harvest till 2021 is priced at the earliest

imho every consumer in the world is now looking to hold a bit more stock to cover delays
and prices need to be a bit higher to reflect this

 

[Clive]

The £30 spread is about what you would expect

early bird planting puts next years wheat crop at about a bit bigger area than this year so given
average yield or better the uk will grow enough for the demand

this year even though we are likely to only have just enough the 240 May futures is about the level it would cost to export
another late harvest and it could be tight in august

not selling 2022 harvest till 2021 is priced at the earliest

imho every consumer in the world is now looking to hold a bit more stock to cover delays
and prices need to be a bit higher to reflect this

cost alone is probably not as big an issue re import / export as actual logistics (cosy / availability) right now ?

ingredients cost is less important to users than lack of supply shutting down production i guess

interest rate rise may slow things down ?

 

[teslacoils]

Where will they store the stock? UK mills etc have no storage.

 

[Badshot]

Where will they store the stock? UK mills etc have no storage.

In lorries, like they do now.....

 

[Will Blackburn]

Where will they store the stock? UK mills etc have no storage.

We are at exporting price now, anymore goes abroad and ethanol keeps buzzing we will need to import. Used to be £10 up to get to import parity, should be more now?

 

[Secret Agronomist]

Same here, been dribbling a bit all the way through but still got a bit left, so not all bad.

You want to see a doctor about that

 

[Renaultman]

You want to see a doctor about that

I did, he said I was incurable.

 

[Bossfarmer]

or sell it and buy futures to stay in the market IF you think the market will still rise ……. or sell it and short futures if you think prices are about to fall !

a marketing tool painfully overlooked by many cereal growers to manage risk and solve cashflow limitations

What if you buy futures and the price drops £20/t? Its all a lottery is it not?

 

[Clive]

What if you buy futures and the price drops £20/t? Its all a lottery is it not?

what if the wheat in your stores drops £20 ? it’s a lottery is it not ?

whet if rain / drought or pest mean you never even get to store - an even bigger lottery is it not ?

who takes the bigger risks ? farmer or trader ?

 

[Clive]

We are at exporting price now, anymore goes abroad and ethanol keeps buzzing we will need to import. Used to be £10 up to get to import parity, should be more now?

i think we already need to import this season, thats not straightforward these days

 

[B R C]

yes its still a massive discount to old crop really

How many times has wheat price gone up to decent levels and people think the forward price is too low for it then to collapse way below what you could have got?
If wheat gets to £250 and Nov 22 gets to £220 I’ll be temped to dip my toes in at that, I mean when was it last there? There’s plenty on here sold at £150/160 surely they are selling forward already?
I’m all sold milling oats, 60% barley sold, no wheat sold

 

[B R C]

i think we already need to import this season, thats not straightforward these days

I think you may be right not sure harvest was as big as people think

 

[Clive]

How many times has wheat price gone up to decent levels and people think the forward price is too low for it then to collapse way below what you could have got?
If wheat gets to £250 and Nov 22 gets to £220 I’ll be temped to dip my toes in at that, I mean when was it last there? There’s plenty on here sold at £150/160 surely they are selling forward already?
I’m all sold milling oats, 60% barley sold, no wheat sold

agree 100% one thing is for sure …… it won’t keep going up for ever and the only question now is where is the top !!!

£250 or close would also see me selling chunks of h21 but i will never sell h22 until its in the shed

 

[lloyd]

The futures seem to have moved faster than a normal year with bigger jumps,
this has played well into Clive's hands at the moment.
Over on Agtalk the American farmers are discussing the potential
impact of fertiliser on the market ,not for what's already grown but the crop
they are going to plant .The big unknown about this is definitely having an
impact on future prices with traders taking a punt and farmers talking of no
rush to sell the current harvest.
The Yanks have had a fairly successful corn and soybean harvest so there must be a level of fear going forward priced into the market so anything could happen from now.

 

[Hindsight]

The futures seem to have moved faster than a normal year with bigger jumps,
this has played well into Clive's hands at the moment.
Over on Agtalk the American farmers are discussing the potential
impact of fertiliser on the market ,not for what's already grown but the crop
they are going to plant .The big unknown about this is definitely having an
impact on future prices with traders taking a punt and farmers talking of no
rush to sell the current harvest.

The concept of the market is working. The historic high forward price for harvest 22 and harvest 23 is saying to farmers around the world 'please plant and please grow your crop well' When the farmer actually prices into that forward market is a separate issue.

 

[teslacoils]

i think we already need to import this season, thats not straightforward these days

It sounds like the EU is also exporting "soft wheat" so quickly it will run out.

Similar to the fert job if India needs to import fert and wheat, and we do, who will get the wheat?

 

[lloyd]

The concept of the market is working. The historic high forward price for harvest 22 and harvest 23 is saying to farmers around the world 'please plant and please grow your crop well' When the farmer actually prices into that forward market is a separate issue.

They are having the same issues with fertiliser supply at the moment.

 

[Clive]

The futures seem to have moved faster than a normal year with bigger jumps,
this has played well into Clive's hands at the moment.
Over on Agtalk the American farmers are discussing the potential
impact of fertiliser on the market ,not for what's already grown but the crop
they are going to plant .The big unknown about this is definitely having an
impact on future prices with traders taking a punt and farmers talking of no
rush to sell the current harvest.
The Yanks have had a fairly successful harvest so there is a level of fear
going forward priced into the market so anything could happen.

most years futures and options are just risk mitigation tools, the market doesn’t move enough to make trading worthwhile unless you are a big player (merchant). This year is a rare opportunity that i think most of us saw coming couple of months ago, a bit of paper trading therefore easy money for farmers for a change

my trades this season did start as a risk mitigation mechanism(how i would more usually use futures or options) - they became speculative once in profit however so i had nothing to loose really in truth

i will cash out soonish and that will be me done speculating until similar opportunity pops up in the future, as i’ve said there is enough risk in just growing the stuff !