Daily market report - IGC Reduce Global Production Forecasts

[CRM AgriCommodities]

The IGC forecast for world total grains production in 2020/21 has been lowered by 13MT to 2,225MT, mainly on downgrades for wheat in the US, EU, and Russia, and maize in the US. Corn / Maize Reflecting the change in estimated US corn area, the International Grains Council lowered their 2020/21 US corn production estimate to 380.8MT, down from 392.5MT in the June estimate. US consumption for 2020/21 was downgraded by 1.3MT owing to a 2MT downgrade to feed usage, but industrial usage was increased to 163.3MT, just below the 166.5MT in 2018/19. Last week, US net sales of 220.6KT for 2019/2020 were down 76% from the previous week and 56% from the prior 4-week average. For 2020/2021, net sales of 2.327MT were primarily for China 1.960MT. However, old crop exports of 1.051MT were up only 4% from the previous week, and down 13% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat / Barley The International Grains Council lowered their 2020/21 EU wheat production estimate to 125.6MT, down from the 128.4MT estimate in June. Combined, Major exporters 2020/21 wheat production has been downgraded to 372.9MT from 379.2MT. Russian wheat production estimates have also been revised down, but at 78MT remains above USDA estimates. US net wheat sales of 616.7KT for 2020/2021 were down 19% from the previous week, but up 24% from the prior 4-week average as US wheat sales have supported Chicago wheat markets. However, exports of 527.9KT were down 18% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. Oilseeds & Oil The International Grain Council increased the 2020/21 major soybean exporter production estimate to 296.1MT, up from 294.5MT in June. Chinese import projections were maintained at 96MT, and consumption increased 0.5MT to 113MT. Further ahead, the Brazilian 2021/22 soybean production estimate has been increased to 130MT, from 128.5MT, maintaining a long term well supplied outlook. Minimal US old crop net soybean sales of 365.2KT for 2019/2020 were made last week, up 17% from the previous week, but down 31 % from the prior 4-week average. For 2020/2021, net sales of 2.3MT were primarily for China 1.49MT, while weekly exports of 467.2KT were down 19% from the previous week, bringing total exports to 38.807MT, with an estimated 44.9MT total season exports. Additional US soybean sales of 132KT for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year have been announced today.

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