European floods

[holwellcourtfarm]

Pretty sure the Rhine valleys and Westphalia regions of Germany is where majority of Germanys potato acreage is grown, it’s not comparable with a American prairie in any shape or form, what’s happened here is a once in a 500 year rain event which have happened for the last billion years and will continue to do so and shape the landscape in the process as it always has.

Leading climate research teams have been telling us for several decades to expect what were 1 in 100 year events to become more like 1 in 10.

Maybe they were right.......

If so then I hate to think what a genuine 1 in 500 year event is going to look like now.

There is actually a worst case. In flood defence design they talk about "probable maximum flood", PMF. It's when the maximum possible atmospheric water content falls in the minimum possible time. In Northern Europe it equates to roughly a 1 in 10,000 year event. Reservoirs have to be designed not to collapse if it happens.

 

[Against_the_grain]

This is a freak event and no amount of reasonable preparing for an event like this will stop things like it happening. Perhaps if they stopped building houses on flood plains so that when it does rain the water isn't fast forwarded would help but at the end of the day this is mother nature and we are mere mortals

 

[onthehoof]

This is a freak event and no amount of reasonable preparing for an event like this will stop things like it happening. Perhaps if they stopped building houses on flood plains so that when it does rain the water isn't fast forwarded would help but at the end of the day this is mother nature and we are mere mortals

Indeed - respect nature because nature sure as hell won’t respect you

 

[JohnGalway]

I wonder what the water infiltration rates are for soils in upland and hill areas that haven’t seen a wheel since the wheel was invented? They can’t be compacted.

They also can’t let that much water infiltrate even if their potential rates are high because they are on slopes.

I blame Mother Nature. Chuffing miserable cow.

Feet will compact also if managed poorly. I'm a hill sheep farmer.

So no one should be allowed to eat potatoes, carrots, onions etc? Madness.

In places they may not be suitable. At the moment they seem to be a difficult square to circle. I was answering a question rather than looking for a fight, so if you wouldn't mind attributing such stupid statements to me I'd be eternally grateful

 

[Kevtherev]

One of nature’s wild events
Terrible for those affected though.

 

[Cab-over Pete]

Feet will compact also if managed poorly. I'm a hill sheep farmer.



In places they may not be suitable. At the moment they seem to be a difficult square to circle. I was answering a question rather than looking for a fight, so if you wouldn't mind attributing such stupid statements to me I'd be eternally grateful

I know feet can compact land, I see it every spring on ground that’s grown and grazed stubble turnips, but that’s not what happens in the hills and uplands on extensively stocked ground.

 

[Michael S]

Unbelievable! and they are saying the authorities should have been better prepared, how do you prepare for this?
View attachment 974096

If you look on the internet there are pictures of this area before this undoubted disaster; out of shot at the bottom of this picture is a very large quarry. It appears that the heavy rain has run off eroding the seemingly sandy soil into quarry. It certainly makes most UK flooding events look pretty benign. Looking at the pictures on TV you really wonder where to start the clear up. The loss of life is absolutely tragic.

 

[B'o'B]

If you look on the internet there are pictures of this area before this undoubted disaster; out of shot at the bottom of this picture is a very large quarry. It appears that the heavy rain has run off eroding the seemingly sandy soil into quarry. It certainly makes most UK flooding events look pretty benign. Looking at the pictures on TV you really wonder where to start the clear up. The loss of life is absolutely tragic.

before

After

 

[Kevtherev]

Posts on Facebook show similar floods in same areas in 2016

 

[Michael S]

Need a wider view.

 

[Bogweevil]

Get used to it, and heatwaves and wildfires, gonna be more variable weather for indefinite future.

 

[Raider112]

Saw Koblenz was on the news earlier, I was there about 5 years ago on a Rhine river cruise, wouldn't have fancied that holiday this week.

 

[Lakesdigger]

Leading climate research teams have been telling us for several decades to expect what were 1 in 100 year events to become more like 1 in 10.

Maybe they were right.......

If so then I hate to think what a genuine 1 in 500 year event is going to look like now.

There is actually a worst case. In flood defence design they talk about "probable maximum flood", PMF. It's when the maximum possible atmospheric water content falls in the minimum possible time. In Northern Europe it equates to roughly a 1 in 10,000 year event. Reservoirs have to be designed not to collapse if it happens.

I can't speak for Germany or even most parts of the uk. But flooding near me during the last 20 years has been relatively regular. One thing which annoys me with the 1 in 75, 1 in 100 year statements is they don't seem to take into account what actually happened 50 to 100 years ago. I actually think we may have been through a period of less extreme rainfall events during the 70s 80s 90s and so people think it never happens. Trouble is since the 50s so much has been built when the floods come back the problems caused are much more severe.

 

[Barleycorn]

The 1952 Lynmouth / Lynton (Devon) floods were allegedly caused by Soviet rain cloud interference experiments, could the same have been caused in Germany / Belgium?

 

[Devil's advocate]

The 1952 Lynmouth / Lynton (Devon) floods were allegedly caused by Soviet rain cloud interference experiments, could the same have been caused in Germany / Belgium?

No just global climate change, nothing to worry about.

 

[Top Tip.]

Nature has incredible power.

The Gods are truly angry at us humans.

It’s funny I was listening to the radio today and all these experts going on about climate change,these climate events have gone on through history and back in the day it would have been put down to the gods being angry, not a lot has changed really.

 

[Bury the Trash]

Remember a lot of the damage is noticeable because real estate is worth more.

Yes , concrete and tarmac dont allow much infiltration . soil movement form on the left in pictures is on unfarmed land , which looks like also it could do with longer covers , then rats might be the problem i guess

View attachment 974209
Need a wider view.

looks like if the quarry has caught a lot of the topsoil its not far with the right kit to take it back again ,but it will take quite some time and money .

That's a lot of lives to be lost in an 'inland ' flood ,sadly.

 

[DrWazzock]

It’s funny I was listening to the radio today and all these experts going on about climate change,these climate events have gone on through history and back in the day it would have been put down to the gods being angry, not a lot has changed really.

Maybe the Messiah is returning.
Look busy!

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

I can't speak for Germany or even most parts of the uk. But flooding near me during the last 20 years has been relatively regular. One thing which annoys me with the 1 in 75, 1 in 100 year statements is they don't seem to take into account what actually happened 50 to 100 years ago. I actually think we may have been through a period of less extreme rainfall events during the 70s 80s 90s and so people think it never happens. Trouble is since the 50s so much has been built when the floods come back the problems caused are much more severe.

That's why the EA and others rarely use the return period description now, favouring percentage risk instead. So instead of saying a "1 in 100 year flood" they talk of a "1% likelihood in any one year".

Just because you have a 1% / 1 in 100 event today doesn't mean it'll be another 100 years before it happens again. It could even happen next week. It's an average likelihood over long timescales.

But then the actual likelihood itself is changing fast right now so the data set used to calculate how likely any particular event actually was is inappropriate for future predictions.

Get ready for LOTS more extreme weather. We must bear this in mind when making land management decisions. It shouldn't be acceptable any more to say "but I didn't expect THAT much rain at THAT time of year" now. All bets are off.

Some of these high risk communities should actually be abandoned rather than rebuilt imho, hard as that message is. Compensate those involved to relocate. Leave the damage as a reminder.

It's time to put more effort into adapting to the new unstable climate rather than keep trying half-heartedly to limit the change.

 

[Kidds]

Some of these high risk communities should actually be abandoned rather than rebuilt imho, hard as that message is. Compensate those involved to relocate. Leave the damage as a reminder.

It's time to put more effort into adapting to the new unstable climate rather than keep trying half-heartedly to limit the change.

Can't see that happening when we are still building on flood plains.