Fert use

[jonny]

As a sheep farmer I’m going to put on as normal Nothing worse than a shortage of grass and ewes going dry and starving the lambs then you’re having to give away light store lambs because nobody else has grass either. The price of fertilizer this year may be just a spike

 

[livestock 1]

Same here putting the same on grass is still cheaper than anything else

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Think I go for the £1000 saving

 

[Clive]

Crops this year will get the normal rates, we bought well but I still value it at current price

my feelings is new crop prices are going to be high. MUCH higher than they are right now , not just the Ukrainian situation but look at other market factors in the USA and China right now to see we are heading into a clear shortage

hold back some of this years feet fert for harvest 24 crop is a massive gamble as output prices shoukd well be back to more normal levels when selling that crop 2 - 3 years from now


I can see us sitting out harvest 23 maybe on large areas to reduce or risk / exposure

 

[ollie989898]

For once both the livestock and arable guys are in the same boat. The arable guys are thinking about bothering to plant their next crop come September. The livestock guys are thinking should I sell/cull stock so I have fewer mouths to feed? Absolute nightmare.

A very dry summer will really turn the dial up on prices I think. Milk and meat in particular will be hard to come by.

 

[bobk]

Who knows how this will pan out , my first port of call will be June / July new fert prices , then Nov 23 wheat price , which at the mo is £228 ...... wtf

 

[robs1]

Just do the opposite of everyone else, beans are going to be massively overdone thats if you can get seed, wheat is one of the worlds staples and perhaps a lower seed rate and fert level with less fungicide use will leave a better margin, if less wheat is planted the price will rise, at some point governments will grasp the reality that all revolutions have been born from the price and/or shortage of wheat and will either subsidise fert or face huge riots.
Meanwhile in the UK we will get Grants plant cover crops and trees.

 

[Steevo]

If anyone does plant wheat next year I hope they keep their sheds locked and don't let a grain out the door until the price is a sensible figure.

 

[Old apprentice]

Beans could be very much required in Egypt they normally buy a lot of wheat from ukraine maybe they could use a few more beans.

 

[Steevo]

Bean could be very much required in Egypt they normally bup a lot of wheat from ukraine maybe they could use a few more beans.

I'll happily grow beans if they'll do me a kilo for kilo swap against Eqyptian granular urea.

 

[livestock 1]

For once both the livestock and arable guys are in the same boat. The arable guys are thinking about bothering to plant their next crop come September. The livestock guys are thinking should I sell/cull stock so I have fewer mouths to feed? Absolute nightmare.

A very dry summer will really turn the dial up on prices I think. Milk and meat in particular will be hard to come by.

I don’t think you are right on this one. The arable farmers are split depending on when they sold their crop but know it’s very unlikely for grain on the whole to drop much from where it is now looking forward.
The livestock side is in a bigger predicament as higher fertiliser costs can’t be soaked up as beef and hogg prices aren’t showing any big profits feed is up hoggs are 50ppk less than this time last year and many beef and sheep farmers buy fert in the spring

 

[ollie989898]

I don’t think you are right on this one. The arable farmers are split depending on when they sold their crop but know it’s very unlikely for grain on the whole to drop much from where it is now looking forward.
The livestock side is in a bigger predicament as higher fertiliser costs can’t be soaked up as beef and hogg prices aren’t showing any big profits feed is up hoggs are 50ppk less than this time last year and many beef and sheep farmers buy fert in the spring

Both sectors are in the same boat. Not everyone has bought all their fertiliser needs. Many farmers will have but certainly not all. Then the question arises regarding do I plant a crop next September/do I have enough forage to keep stock over the winter?

Values for crops and livestock will surely have to rise from where they are if this is to be sustainable for producers in the medium term. Just drilling a crop in September means you have to accept a fair amount of cost. Do you accept this knowing that fertiliser will be £1000/tonne or more as it stands?

 

[AndrewB]

Beans could be very much required in Egypt they normally buy a lot of wheat from ukraine maybe they could use a few more beans.

Had an Egyptian in this week buying seed potatoes and he said the government is forcing farmers to grow wheat.
They would normally grow export potatoes for Russia and the government would buy back wheat.

 

[livestock 1]

Both sectors are in the same boat. Not everyone has bought all their fertiliser needs. Many farmers will have but certainly not all. Then the question arises regarding do I plant a crop next September/do I have enough forage to keep stock over the winter?

Values for crops and livestock will surely have to rise from where they are if this is to be sustainable for producers in the medium term. Just drilling a crop in September means you have to accept a fair amount of cost. Do you accept this knowing that fertiliser will be £1000/tonne or more as it stands?

I have carried some fertiliser over from 2021 and have bought some recently at the high prices. I have to do this due to my current money already invested in stock and current system.
Livestock prices have not seen the increase in values that grain prices have. I wouldn’t be too concerned if the increase in fertiliser prices could be soaked up by increased stock values but as it stands for me the cattle are similar slightly better and the sheep are falling short of last year by a lump that being around 15% or more. The sheep I usually sell around this time are nearer 20% /25% less.
There’s calculations on here which show reckoning that wheat and barley at current values can stand the high fert prices, although I have no idea if that’s correct or not either way a livestock grassland farm is in a much different situation as the output has either stagnated or dropped and is often forgotten about as far as how we deal with these costs.
I realise more cost adds much more risk in an arable situation and other inputs have gone up, we are also seeing downward pressure on store and breeding stock due to increased grain prices with a lift due at the end of April of out of contract feed 20% and possibly another lift a month later

 

[JockCroft]

Fertiliser price is one side, delivery or should it be non delivery is even bigger worry.
Order end January for mid March delivery, chasing up a few minutes ago and yes it will come but no firm date, "probably by end of the month". Price quoted at order was roughly 50% up on last year.
With grass starting to move would have had post lambing fields a boost. Worried now may be tight for grazing for new lambed. Have missed date for couple of AECS cutting fields meaning no fert until end of May.
2 or 3 week delay means all summer grazing will be less efficient, lighter lambs in August. The whole thing will have huge knock on effects on all enterprises.

Regarding HOW MUCH fertiliser to apply. Did anyone else have the "Law of Diminishing Returns" drummed into them at college. Well looking at my Oats. If 100kg acre of 20:10:10 gives a yield of around 2 tonnes/acre, then if increase to 150kg at £600/tonne will cost £30 extra. If Oats are £200/ton need extra yield of 150 kg to cover that cost, so on those figures its going to get good old 3cwt acre, fingers crossed fert appears and decent growing and harvest weather.

 

[e3120]

Both sectors are in the same boat. Not everyone has bought all their fertiliser needs. Many farmers will have but certainly not all. Then the question arises regarding do I plant a crop next September/do I have enough forage to keep stock over the winter?

Values for crops and livestock will surely have to rise from where they are if this is to be sustainable for producers in the medium term. Just drilling a crop in September means you have to accept a fair amount of cost. Do you accept this knowing that fertiliser will be £1000/tonne or more as it stands?

I kindly ask that you compare changes in output prices already for the 2 sectors before declaring them in the same boat. After the cartel have agreed next week's rates tomorrow I hope that last October's beef price is regained. I wouldn't say that that puts us in the same boat as those cropping.

 

[icanshootwell]

I think , correct me if im wrong? but most large farmers buy, take delivery of their fertilizer late summer, early autumn , so would have had most of their fertilizer requirements in the barn , paid for at last years prices, its this years buying that will have the biggest impact? i was quite lucky to have had a few tons left from last year?

I think a lot held off last autumn as fertilizer had gone up considerably, a lot maybe bought half expecting price to drop a bit, I paid 650 in November, buying the other half now is a bitter pill to swallow..

 

[dowcow]

We carried a little AN over from last year, and this winter bought exactly what we needed for this spring. Most has been spread, a little left for the wholecrop and maize, but then there won't be anything left for after the first cut of silage. We expected the price would be coming down by now when we bought midwinter, now unsure whether we will be able to get it even if we can afford it.

 

[som farmer]

as a dairy farmer, we were reducing stock numbers, for labour reasons, there isn't any around here. This has led to 'spare' acres, looking at cake price, we have restarted growing wheat for our own use. We think, 2 of our higher input costs, other than the unavoidable, are animal protein and fert, so having taken a long look at the ins and outs, a lot of clover seed has been used. These decisions were taken end of 2020 !

The clovers have definitely raised silage protein to 16%, and the grazing has improved likewise. Home grown cereal, will definitely take the sting out of cake prices of anywhere between £400 to £500 a ton, some would argue that the wheat should be costed in at mkt price, but we are not in 'normal' times, so until we find out, what is going to happen, anybody's guess.

We have bought 1 load of fert, that will be used as normal, on the cereals, the rest more for early growth, pre clover growth, applied in smaller applications to reduce waste.
After that, its better use of slurry and FYM, of which we have a lot, and reliance on the advice of how much N clover will produce, will soon see if they are correct or not ! We are also trying other types of clover/legumes, to see if we can improve on the protein/fert front.

When we decided to alter our business, pretty well all of our predicted figures, have been overtaken by events, but the change looks very right now. Where 'things' will settle down at, remains the big unknown, until we know that, we have insulated ourselves to a degree, as cashflow, out of the business, will certainly reduce.

 

[SilliamWhale]

Yo

The whole world, fertiliser is a world wide problem, may be planting beans of one sort or another, so there'll a lot about after harvest 23.

You can fix it £30 above wheat price now though