Fertiliser Price Tracker

[frederick]

Yes ag gets handouts but we don’t deliberately short the market to get it, maybe we should?

Of course we shorted the market. Economics pre ww2 meant not enough was produced. Ever since then food was subsidised.
Recently it has been decided people can afford to buy their own food cheaply enough from other countries so subsidies are being redirected.
History may prove that a mistake.

 

[teslacoils]

I think there is confusion here between shorting and cornering a market. I doubt preww2 farmers were in a position to collectively decide to produce less to raise prices.

 

[Tarw Coch]

Exactly, what shortage, everyone I know has secured their requirements

No one I know has secured all their requirements, some have had none and have no intention of buying at current prices.
Quite a few, my self included have bought enough for early season requirements and will see how things go from there, most livestock farmers seem to have got a reasonable carry over of forage so are hoping to get away with using less.
My guess would be fertiliser sales will be down between 10 and 30 percent for the year with the biggest reductions in the livestock sector

 

[Tarw Coch]

Of course we shorted the market. Economics pre ww2 meant not enough was produced. Ever since then food was subsidised.
Recently it has been decided people can afford to buy their own food cheaply enough from other countries so subsidies are being redirected.
History may prove that a mistake.

Not sure that farmers shorted the market pre WWII, it was more market forces, making a living was a struggle no matter how hard you tried, I’m sure I’ve heard stories of farmers walked out on their farms as they couldn’t make it pay/pay the bills/rent/bank.

 

[DrWazzock]

A lot who survived the 1930’s told me the best way to survive was to do nothing. My great grandfather was paid to keep the neighbouring estate fallow.
We aren’t really in that state now. I appreciate grain prices going forward might justify higher fertiliser prices but it’s quite a risk.
Sell grain forward to possibly lock in a small profit but what if you have a tonnage shortfall at harvest? Buying in grain at an even higher price to make up a contract would finish me financially, so I’m unwilling too do that as a drought here affects our light land badly.
So I will wait and see.
The thought of ££24000 for a wagon load this year when it was £8000 for a wagon load last year is just too much for me to stomach particularly as grain hasn’t risen proportionally and I’ve no idea what the price of grain will be next harvest and won’t risk forward sales.

 

[Old apprentice]

I was told by my family that fat lambs in the 1930s were 6 old penny's, what is that to day something like two and a half pence.

 

[Cowabunga]

A lot who survived the 1930’s told me the best way to survive was to do nothing. My great grandfather was paid to keep the neighbouring estate fallow.
We aren’t really in that state now. I appreciate grain prices going forward might justify higher fertiliser prices but it’s quite a risk.
Sell grain forward to possibly lock in a small profit but what if you have a tonnage shortfall at harvest? Buying in grain at an even higher price to make up a contract would finish me financially, so I’m unwilling too do that as a drought here affects our light land badly.
So I will wait and see.
The thought of ££24000 for a wagon load this year when it was £8000 for a wagon load last year is just too much for me to stomach particularly as grain hasn’t risen proportionally and I’ve no idea what the price of grain will be next harvest and won’t risk forward sales.

The price of grain does not have to rise at the same rate as for fertiliser and other inputs. The reason being that the input mass results in much larger mass of output. You don’t apply 50kgs of fertiliser and only expect 50kgs extra wheat to pay for it. The first units of fertiliser applied will have a disproportionately higher return than the last few units which will be subject to the law of diminishing returns. The trick is to apply the economic optimum amount, which will probably be much less next season than for this one.

 

[Cowabunga]

I was told by my family that fat lambs in the 1930s were 6 old penny's, what is that to day something like two and a half pence.

Accounting for inflation that is £1.78 in April 2022. Today.

 

[teslacoils]

Npks and lime for a big wheat crop now exceeds my mortgage payment as the largest cost per acre.

 

[teslacoils]

I was told by my family that fat lambs in the 1930s were 6 old penny's, what is that to day something like two and a half pence.

A ploughman at that time would earn a shilling per hour. I think a shilling is 12 old pennies.

 

[David.]

Crikey, he would heed to be covering 10ac hr, to pay him with lambs today.
If the rule of thumb was an acre a day, in 10 hours, that was 10 bob an acre for ploughing, without oats and depreciation on the horse and plough.
Surprised direct drilling wasn't a bigger thing back then, tbh.
Although, I expect the top of the range Rhenish German Coldblood draft horses of the time manufactured their own oats as they worked....

 

[teslacoils]

Crikey, he would heed to be covering 10ac hr, to pay him with lambs today.

Well, he'd have a quadtrac and a solo now ...........

 

[Bald Rick]

Text from our co-op saying fert book was open again.
Rang for info
AN £780/t April delivery pay May
But won’t deliver to Sainted Isle …. snakes

 

[David.]

That's a bargain .
Won't they leave it the other side of the strait and you collect from there?

 

[livestock 1]

That's a bargain .
Won't they leave it the other side of the strait and you collect from there?

It will get knicked

 

[David.]

Nobody will dare tangle with the pair of imported heavily armed Ukrainian lovelies that will be guarding it for him...

 

[livestock 1]

Nobody will tangle with the pair of imported heavily armed Ukrainian lovelies that will guard it for him...

Yes I never thought of that his hareem will protect the goods…..

 

[Tarw Coch]

But won’t deliver to Sainted Isle …. snakes

Why on earth not?
There must be plenty of places far worse to get to than a run across the north wales coast

 

[redsloe]

A lot who survived the 1930’s told me the best way to survive was to do nothing. My great grandfather was paid to keep the neighbouring estate fallow.
We aren’t really in that state now. I appreciate grain prices going forward might justify higher fertiliser prices but it’s quite a risk.
Sell grain forward to possibly lock in a small profit but what if you have a tonnage shortfall at harvest? Buying in grain at an even higher price to make up a contract would finish me financially, so I’m unwilling too do that as a drought here affects our light land badly.
So I will wait and see.
The thought of ££24000 for a wagon load this year when it was £8000 for a wagon load last year is just too much for me to stomach particularly as grain hasn’t risen proportionally and I’ve no idea what the price of grain will be next harvest and won’t risk forward sales.

It won't ever be 8k a load again imo.

Another way of looking at it is an average of 16k for 2 load over 2 years. Thats about £540/t. I reckon most farmers would take that, in fact I have done. If it drops massively I can buy more and average down, if it goes up then I shan't worry.

 

[farmbrew]

I going to make my ferts stretch for my current crop, top up with a little foliar feed.
Next year I am seriously considering having a year out.
SFP will cover most of the rent, don't fancy diesel at £1 litre either.
Might do a bit of outside labour to tide me over.
Just my gut feeling with the current situation.