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Fertiliser Price Tracker

frederick

Member
Location
south west
Yes ag gets handouts but we don’t deliberately short the market to get it, maybe we should?
Of course we shorted the market. Economics pre ww2 meant not enough was produced. Ever since then food was subsidised.
Recently it has been decided people can afford to buy their own food cheaply enough from other countries so subsidies are being redirected.
History may prove that a mistake.
 
Exactly, what shortage, everyone I know has secured their requirements
No one I know has secured all their requirements, some have had none and have no intention of buying at current prices.
Quite a few, my self included have bought enough for early season requirements and will see how things go from there, most livestock farmers seem to have got a reasonable carry over of forage so are hoping to get away with using less.
My guess would be fertiliser sales will be down between 10 and 30 percent for the year with the biggest reductions in the livestock sector
 
Of course we shorted the market. Economics pre ww2 meant not enough was produced. Ever since then food was subsidised.
Recently it has been decided people can afford to buy their own food cheaply enough from other countries so subsidies are being redirected.
History may prove that a mistake.
Not sure that farmers shorted the market pre WWII, it was more market forces, making a living was a struggle no matter how hard you tried, I’m sure I’ve heard stories of farmers walked out on their farms as they couldn’t make it pay/pay the bills/rent/bank.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
A lot who survived the 1930’s told me the best way to survive was to do nothing. My great grandfather was paid to keep the neighbouring estate fallow.
We aren’t really in that state now. I appreciate grain prices going forward might justify higher fertiliser prices but it’s quite a risk.
Sell grain forward to possibly lock in a small profit but what if you have a tonnage shortfall at harvest? Buying in grain at an even higher price to make up a contract would finish me financially, so I’m unwilling too do that as a drought here affects our light land badly.
So I will wait and see.
The thought of ££24000 for a wagon load this year when it was £8000 for a wagon load last year is just too much for me to stomach particularly as grain hasn’t risen proportionally and I’ve no idea what the price of grain will be next harvest and won’t risk forward sales.
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
A lot who survived the 1930’s told me the best way to survive was to do nothing. My great grandfather was paid to keep the neighbouring estate fallow.
We aren’t really in that state now. I appreciate grain prices going forward might justify higher fertiliser prices but it’s quite a risk.
Sell grain forward to possibly lock in a small profit but what if you have a tonnage shortfall at harvest? Buying in grain at an even higher price to make up a contract would finish me financially, so I’m unwilling too do that as a drought here affects our light land badly.
So I will wait and see.
The thought of ££24000 for a wagon load this year when it was £8000 for a wagon load last year is just too much for me to stomach particularly as grain hasn’t risen proportionally and I’ve no idea what the price of grain will be next harvest and won’t risk forward sales.
The price of grain does not have to rise at the same rate as for fertiliser and other inputs. The reason being that the input mass results in much larger mass of output. You don’t apply 50kgs of fertiliser and only expect 50kgs extra wheat to pay for it. The first units of fertiliser applied will have a disproportionately higher return than the last few units which will be subject to the law of diminishing returns. The trick is to apply the economic optimum amount, which will probably be much less next season than for this one.
 

David.

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
J11 M40
Crikey, he would heed to be covering 10ac hr, to pay him with lambs today.
If the rule of thumb was an acre a day, in 10 hours, that was 10 bob an acre for ploughing, without oats and depreciation on the horse and plough.
Surprised direct drilling wasn't a bigger thing back then, tbh.
Although, I expect the top of the range Rhenish German Coldblood draft horses of the time manufactured their own oats as they worked....
 
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redsloe

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cornwall
A lot who survived the 1930’s told me the best way to survive was to do nothing. My great grandfather was paid to keep the neighbouring estate fallow.
We aren’t really in that state now. I appreciate grain prices going forward might justify higher fertiliser prices but it’s quite a risk.
Sell grain forward to possibly lock in a small profit but what if you have a tonnage shortfall at harvest? Buying in grain at an even higher price to make up a contract would finish me financially, so I’m unwilling too do that as a drought here affects our light land badly.
So I will wait and see.
The thought of ££24000 for a wagon load this year when it was £8000 for a wagon load last year is just too much for me to stomach particularly as grain hasn’t risen proportionally and I’ve no idea what the price of grain will be next harvest and won’t risk forward sales.
It won't ever be 8k a load again imo.

Another way of looking at it is an average of 16k for 2 load over 2 years. Thats about £540/t. I reckon most farmers would take that, in fact I have done. If it drops massively I can buy more and average down, if it goes up then I shan't worry.
 

farmbrew

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
North Notts
I going to make my ferts stretch for my current crop, top up with a little foliar feed.
Next year I am seriously considering having a year out.
SFP will cover most of the rent, don't fancy diesel at £1 litre either.
Might do a bit of outside labour to tide me over.
Just my gut feeling with the current situation.
 

How is your SFI 24 application progressing?

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Webinar: Expanded Sustainable Farming Incentive offer 2024 -26th Sept

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On Thursday 26th September, we’re holding a webinar for farmers to go through the guidance, actions and detail for the expanded Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) offer. This was planned for end of May, but had to be delayed due to the general election. We apologise about that.

Farming and Countryside Programme Director, Janet Hughes will be joined by policy leads working on SFI, and colleagues from the Rural Payment Agency and Catchment Sensitive Farming.

This webinar will be...
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