Fertiliser Price Tracker

ANonymous

Member
Arable Farmer
Let's calculate Ferts production cost!
One tonne of Urea cost 25 MMBTU of natural gas and 80% of Urea production cost is on the cost of natural gas is $5/MMBTU at Henry's hub...hence, $125/MMBTU cost of LNG, add another 20% for covering other cost...arrived at $150/tonne urea production cost...which is about 109 poundsterling/tonne...
Ferts company are making huge profit on top of Farmers' misery.
This is an interesting calculation, however the cost of gas in Europe is circa $24/mmBtu, not $5/mmBtu as stated. Working on your calculations this makes Urea production in Europe circa - $625/mt / 1.37 (£/$ exchange rate and it comes out as £456.20/t just for production) exc. shipping, exc. road haulage. If Urea producers were making so much money- why would they start turning down production?

Chinese gas purchases from Russia and lack of European LNG storage is pushing gas prices up in Europe. Fertiliser manufacturers in Europe are facing the same challenges as UK farmers - extortionately high input costs. Just like farmers have not bought fertiliser because the price is too high, fertiliser manufacturers have decided to not buy gas because the price is too high. This Mexican stand off is all over products/produce that the world needs...
 

Nowthenblue

Member
BASIS
Location
Bucks

CO2 deal to be struck 'today', so food production can resume this week, says Business Secretary​

There have been warnings of a 'farmaggedon' if CO2 production does not restart'farmaggedon' if CO2 production does not restart

There have been warnings of a 'farmaggedon' if CO2 production does not restart

A deal to address the country's carbon dioxide shortage could be struck "today" so that food production can resume in the next couple of days, the Business Secretary has said.
Kwasi Kwarteng has said he had spoken to both the boss of CF Industries and Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, about this, noting that the issue was the cost of natural gas had risen above the price of ammonia and CO2.
Asked if the Government was prepared to subsidise a foreign company, he said he was "looking at different ways we can provide support", and insisted any support would be temporary.
"It may come at some cost, we are still hammering out the details," he added. He was "averse" to nationalising the company.
He was "prepared to look at every solution" to get production back up and running, Mr Kwarteng told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...rexit-gas-energy-prices/#update-20210921-0814

For the first half of 2021, CF Industries net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $397 million, or $1.83 per diluted share; EBITDA was $994 million; and adjusted EBITDA was $997 million.9 Aug 2021


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Westin

Member
Arable Farmer
This is good knowledge and a great calculation, however the cost of Gas in Europe is circa $24/mmBtu, around 5 x the amount your calculating on. Gas is being bought up by Chinese markets and Europe LNG storage is only recently being ramped up. Fertiliser companies are facing the same challenges as farmers - extortionately high input costs. Just like farmers not buying and waiting for prices to come down, fertiliser manufacturers have taken the same ethos with gas. Stop buying and wait for the price to come down. A Mexican stand off for products/produce the whole world needs.
Today Quote at Henry's hub is $5/MMBTU... Chinese ain't stupid...if the was any Crooks, it would be European energy Traders and gas company in Europe...i fought the same baddies in Indonesia, until my president decree that locally Indonesia Gas for fertilizer company is fixed at $5/MMBTU as we sold our gas to Chinese for $2/MMBTU for 20 years contract....any European country wish to buy our Indonesia Gas at $10/MMBTU are welcome to contact me as i am in good term with our economic minister
 

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ANonymous

Member
Arable Farmer
Today Quote at Henry's hub is $5/MMBTU... Chinese ain't stupid...if the was any Crooks, it would be European energy Traders and gas company in Europe...i fought the same baddies in Indonesia, until my president decree that locally Indonesia Gas for fertilizer company is fixed at $5/MMBTU as we sold our gas to Chinese for $2/MMBTU for 20 years contract....any European country wish to buy our Indonesia Gas at $10/MMBTU are welcome to contact me as i am in good term with our economic minister
No use quoting an American benchmark for gas prices in Europe. Please find comment on Reuters regarding the European gas price: 'Prices at the TTF hub and JKM are currently trading at $24/mmBtu and $25/mmBtu, respectively'. Link to article: https://www.reuters.com/business/en...uld-boost-oil-prices-says-goldman-2021-09-20/

Please get your economic minster on the phone to Yara, CF and all the other manufacturers in Europe and offer them this lovely price... I am sure it will not cost much to ship it to Europe, store it, finance it or getting it here quickly enough with your capabilities. Thanks for your help in advance.
 

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