Given the arla news...

[Jdunn55]

This is gonna be controversial so hold onto your knickers

I'm after opinions..

Given arlas announcement today of up 2.58ppl shall I order some robots and buy some more pedigrees? what do we think realistically is going to happen to the milk price between April and September?

Reason I ask is for concentrates.

Currently I'm contracted until the end of February/March on a 25% protein blend which I'm paying £336 for.

I will be grazing from March onwards by day and maybe night but buffer fed with maize (I know shoot me in the eye and call me Susan, it's happening regardless) just wondering do I contract for the summer March-September and if so how much should I anticipate pushing the cows with?

I'm thinking of contracting a pokey blend for the fresh cows to go in the oopf and then something more sensible like maize and soya hulls for in the parlour (probably feeding 6kg max in the parlour) they'll have 2kg wheat on top of the naughty maize silage so cows without access to the oopf should hopefully be balanced for 25-30litres depending on grass quality/abundance?

Anything over 30 litres will be in oopf

How hard do I push the fresh ones? 4kg of maize/wheat distillers in the oopf is my initial thinking?

Or do we all think that its going to drop April 1st when the spring calvers come online/autumn calvers have a flush and I should forget the maize distillers in the oopf?

I've got lots (for me) to calve
15 in march, 18 in April, 20 in May, 18 in June, 15 in July so just want to get things right.

I'm off to milk my cows now so I'll look at the replies telling me I'm nuttier than a squirrel in winter in a couple of hours, thanks all

 

[frederick]

This is gonna be controversial so hold onto your knickers

I'm after opinions..

Given arlas announcement today of up 2.58ppl shall I order some robots and buy some more pedigrees? what do we think realistically is going to happen to the milk price between April and September?

Reason I ask is for concentrates.

Currently I'm contracted until the end of February/March on a 25% protein blend which I'm paying £336 for.

I will be grazing from March onwards by day and maybe night but buffer fed with maize (I know shoot me in the eye and call me Susan, it's happening regardless) just wondering do I contract for the summer March-September and if so how much should I anticipate pushing the cows with?

I'm thinking of contracting a pokey blend for the fresh cows to go in the oopf and then something more sensible like maize and soya hulls for in the parlour (probably feeding 6kg max in the parlour) they'll have 2kg wheat on top of the naughty maize silage so cows without access to the oopf should hopefully be balanced for 25-30litres depending on grass quality/abundance?

Anything over 30 litres will be in oopf

How hard do I push the fresh ones? 4kg of maize/wheat distillers in the oopf is my initial thinking?

Or do we all think that its going to drop April 1st when the spring calvers come online/autumn calvers have a flush and I should forget the maize distillers in the oopf?

I've got lots (for me) to calve
15 in march, 18 in April, 20 in May, 18 in June, 15 in July so just want to get things right.

I'm off to milk my cows now so I'll look at the replies telling me I'm nuttier than a squirrel in winter in a couple of hours, thanks all

The management and feeding of your cows should have very little relationship to the milk price.

You are basically arguing that your high input system can only afford to feed the levels of concentrate you want to in a stronger milk price environment.

However in answer to your question arlas move today makes me think a milk price of 41-42ppl is likely to be 2024s average or higher.

 

[Keep On]

There will obviously be a point where feeding more blend leading to more milk will create more margin under the right conditions. No one can tell you what will be right or wrong for you. You’ve got a calculator and know the costs, have a good and see and enjoy!

 

[Nathan818]

I always thought that generally meal follows milk levels and not the other way around. If your high yielding cows are not fed then won't they just try and produce up to their genetic potential anyway and end up undersupplied for energy? Or if they sit naturally at 25-30 litres then won't feeding them for more result in less milk than you would hope, reducing concentrate efficiency and causing them to put on condition?

 

[More to life]

The dairy trade only follows arla down they ignore them going up.

 

[Werzle]

Pass all your profits to the feed companies and also push production up to ease prices

 

[Enry]

This is gonna be controversial so hold onto your knickers

I'm after opinions..

Given arlas announcement today of up 2.58ppl shall I order some robots and buy some more pedigrees? what do we think realistically is going to happen to the milk price between April and September?

Reason I ask is for concentrates.

Currently I'm contracted until the end of February/March on a 25% protein blend which I'm paying £336 for.

I will be grazing from March onwards by day and maybe night but buffer fed with maize (I know shoot me in the eye and call me Susan, it's happening regardless) just wondering do I contract for the summer March-September and if so how much should I anticipate pushing the cows with?

I'm thinking of contracting a pokey blend for the fresh cows to go in the oopf and then something more sensible like maize and soya hulls for in the parlour (probably feeding 6kg max in the parlour) they'll have 2kg wheat on top of the naughty maize silage so cows without access to the oopf should hopefully be balanced for 25-30litres depending on grass quality/abundance?

Anything over 30 litres will be in oopf

How hard do I push the fresh ones? 4kg of maize/wheat distillers in the oopf is my initial thinking?

Or do we all think that its going to drop April 1st when the spring calvers come online/autumn calvers have a flush and I should forget the maize distillers in the oopf?

I've got lots (for me) to calve
15 in march, 18 in April, 20 in May, 18 in June, 15 in July so just want to get things right.

I'm off to milk my cows now so I'll look at the replies telling me I'm nuttier than a squirrel in winter in a couple of hours, thanks all

arla up 3.08 I heard?

 

[Enry]

The management and feeding of your cows should have very little relationship to the milk price.

You are basically arguing that your high input system can only afford to feed the levels of concentrate you want to in a stronger milk price environment.

However in answer to your question arlas move today makes me think a milk price of 41-42ppl is likely to be 2024s average or higher.

I agree to a point, but like with cereals, price determines what you'll spend for a marginal increase _ I'd throw more at wheat worth £280 than £180

 

[frederick]

I agree to a point, but like with cereals, price determines what you'll spend for a marginal increase _ I'd throw more at wheat worth £280 than £180

But would wheat at 180 or 210 alter your thinking much.

 

[Enry]

But would wheat at 180 or 210 alter your thinking much.

yes it would a bit...potential extra £100/ac value so a £30 spend looks a better risk

Comes back to basic economics I guess, everyone makes decisions based on the information available ref what is right for their business at the time. Some spring calvers kept milking later last year because milk price was so high, at a low price they'd dry herd off as usual.

 

[lazy farmer]

The management and feeding of your cows should have very little relationship to the milk price.

You are basically arguing that your high input system can only afford to feed the levels of concentrate you want to in a stronger milk price environment.

However in answer to your question arlas move today makes me think a milk price of 41-42ppl is likely to be 2024s average or higher.

Base price ?

 

[frederick]

Base price ?

Yes 42-43 is already my future arla price. I think there will be a bit more to come during the year but maybe not for a couple of months.

 

[lazy farmer]

Yes 42-43 is already my future arla price. I think there will be a bit more to come during the year but maybe not for a couple of months.

Oh my. On a 12 month avg that would 8p onto my milk price.taking it back to 50p
Personally I think your being a tad optimistic based on Decembers futures and current supply

 

[pappuller]

Oh my. On a 12 month avg that would 8p onto my milk price.taking it back to 50p
Personally I think your being a tad optimistic based on Decembers futures and current supply

With all feed contracted till Nov 24 and leccy 27% lower after Feb than today a milk price starting with a 4 for 2024 I'd be like a dog with 2 wotsits

 

[lazy farmer]

With all feed contracted till Nov 24 and leccy 27% lower after Feb than today a milk price starting with a 4 for 2024 I'd be like a dog with 2 wotsits

Yeap. Can easily see it being back to where we are now in 12 months time.

 

[vantage]

Yeap. Can easily see it being back to where we are now in 12 months time.

Bah humbug!

 

[pappuller]

Yeap. Can easily see it being back to where we are now in 12 months time.

I personally think a milk price averaging above 40p for 2024 is very optimistic

 

[lazy farmer]

Bah humbug!

Low prices so Far has done very little to cut off supply. It has just made the industry more fragile. So in response to slightly higher prices there will be an attempt to produce more to mend some Of the damage before the price drops. Making the price drop.

 

[frederick]

Yeap. Can easily see it being back to where we are now in 12 months time.

I could be proven wrong but last time milk was at 50ppl the taps weren't really turned on.whats changed now for you to fear a milk price of 42ppl resulting in the foot to the floor.

People talk about dairy farmers becoming resilient to volatility. I think there is a risk we have become to resilient. When the milk price is 15ppl behind 12 months ago we still produce exactly the same milk. 36 ppl hasn't changed how my model works this winter and 44p won't change what I do with my cows next winter.

The real risk is that the milk price allows investment for expansion. I don't think 42ppl does that and on most farm the first investment required is slurry to simply allow the farm to stay the size it is.

 

[lazy farmer]

Barbers up 1.03
38.20

market giving mixed signals. Campina up 3.7 for dec then down 1.7 for Jan.