Given the arla news...

[lazy farmer]

I could be proven wrong but last time milk was at 50ppl the taps weren't really turned on.whats changed now for you to fear a milk price of 42ppl resulting in the foot to the floor.

People talk about dairy farmers becoming resilient to volatility. I think there is a risk we have become to resilient. When the milk price is 15ppl behind 12 months ago we still produce exactly the same milk. 36 ppl hasn't changed how my model works this winter and 44p won't change what I do with my cows next winter.

The real risk is that the milk price allows investment for expansion. I don't think 42ppl does that and on most farm the first investment required is slurry to simply allow the farm to stay the size it is.

It only take one litre more than required.

 

[frederick]

It only take one litre more than required.

Don't disagree but 42 would be a bounce back to a more balanced price between the retail price and farm price. Retail prices have come back but 42 shouldn't mean they have to go up again. This means that hopefully demand can return to steady growth again and a more normal situation can resume.

 

[buffalo_soldier]

I’m even more optimistic than Frederick I’m afraid.

I know it comes out of the same pot, however a chunk of the Arla price is decoupled from the market.

There was some chat in the Arla thread a month or so back Scope3 trading, 1B litres if I remember, will start coming in this year. So that decoupling should grow.

 

[buffalo_soldier]

Oh, and as to the original question feed your cows what they need, regardless of milk price.

yo-yo feeding is not desirable.

 

[frederick]

I’m even more optimistic than Frederick I’m afraid.

I know it comes out of the same pot, however a chunk of the Arla price is decoupled from the market.

There was some chat in the Arla thread a month or so back Scope3 trading, 1B litres if I remember, will start coming in this year. So that decoupling should grow.

To an extent if it's already contracted that income should be included in January's milk price because they know what's coming in and it should then be spread out over 12 months.

January's milk price should be what the coop expects to pay out over the next 12 months under the current market conditions it should only go up or down if income changes from January's expected position.

 

[buffalo_soldier]

That’s a far too balanced train of thought for a milk processor.

The 1B if I’ve remembered correctly won’t be online Jan 1st

 

[frederick]

That’s a far too balanced train of thought for a milk processor.

The 1B if I’ve remembered correctly won’t be online Jan 1st

But it's how arla pricing works. Doesn't have to be paid in Jan just needs to be contracted for 24 year. Jan milk price should be expected 12 months income divided by 12 months litres. Feb is 11 and so on

 

[som farmer]

I could be proven wrong but last time milk was at 50ppl the taps weren't really turned on.whats changed now for you to fear a milk price of 42ppl resulting in the foot to the floor.

People talk about dairy farmers becoming resilient to volatility. I think there is a risk we have become to resilient. When the milk price is 15ppl behind 12 months ago we still produce exactly the same milk. 36 ppl hasn't changed how my model works this winter and 44p won't change what I do with my cows next winter.

The real risk is that the milk price allows investment for expansion. I don't think 42ppl does that and on most farm the first investment required is slurry to simply allow the farm to stay the size it is.

with a long hard look, at what is going to hit/cost us, with the new slurry regs, and any further shite RT want to lumber us with. The milk price has to provide enough to invest in the required regs.

interest rates, input costs etc, add up to a sizable extra chunk, and not sure 42ppl provides enough to invest in big projects.

if you are a tenant farmer, facing the slurry regs, without the required 6 months storage, one is faced with some hard choices, unless on a long term tenancy, or l/lord will help out.

perhaps if enough farmers stop milking, and there is plenty of reasons to do so, the critical milk volume will drop, and prices will settle at a sustainable level, , which we desperately need.

l wouldn't like to guess at what ag prices, in general, are going to do, in the next 12 months, there are just so many uncertainties. The guvs policy on food procuring, is faulted, it relies on imported food, in an increasingly unstable world, and its environmental efforts, look to reduce home production.

perhaps this is the year things will alter, l think it is, just not sure if its good, or bad. And we cannot rely on politicians to get things right, they don't think long term, only about as far as their snouts, stuck in the feed trough of perks, pensions and lucrative side deals.

 

[Enry]

Barbers up 1.03
38.20

market giving mixed signals. Campina up 3.7 for dec then down 1.7 for Jan.

I wonder how much of Arla increase down to market and how much down to them starting to gain from the sustainability story? Market looks fragile to say the least, and with January then spring flush ahead, I wounder will we see more rises, stand-ons or possibly some drops

 

[Cows 'n grass]

But it's how arla pricing works. Doesn't have to be paid in Jan just needs to be contracted for 24 year. Jan milk price should be expected 12 months income divided by 12 months litres. Feb is 11 and so on

If that's the pricing model then why were they still paying 51 last January when all market signals were pointing towards a massive price crash?

 

[Cows 'n grass]

It only take one litre more than required.

You're completely correct that supply and demand need to match but this year's price woes have been more due to a lack of demand (particularly of branded products) rather than an increase in supply.

A healthy world economic climate will affect prices more than anything that happens on farm.

 

[lazy farmer]

Based on a feb 24 price of 38.2p
March will be 8p a litre less than last yr
April 4p in fact it will be august until the 2024 price is higher than 2023.

 

[frederick]

If that's the pricing model then why were they still paying 51 last January when all market signals were pointing towards a massive price crash?

That's the one.
Nothing's perfect.

My point however is arla do have the ability to pay out in January money that they may not expect to receive until the second half of the year.

 

[pappuller]

That's the one.
Nothing's perfect.

My point however is arla do have the ability to pay out in January money that they may not expect to receive until the second half of the year.

expect or know ? presume this is why they can pay exceptionally well when its going well but possibly have to trim the cloth harder when things dont go as expected ? as we saw in mid 20teens and last 12 months

 

[buffalo_soldier]

It’s above my pay grade but I don’t believe that’s correct.

To my significant cost I’ve been involved with 2 coop’s who paid out of overdraft essentially. I would hope Arla aren’t doing the same.

 

[pappuller]

It’s above my pay grade but I don’t believe that’s correct.

To my significant cost I’ve been involved with 2 coop’s who paid out of overdraft essentially. I would hope Arla aren’t doing the same.

I'm sure the ship is being steered by some very savvy board members

 

[Enry]

It’s above my pay grade but I don’t believe that’s correct.

To my significant cost I’ve been involved with 2 coop’s who paid out of overdraft essentially. I would hope Arla aren’t doing the same.

as I understand, Arla only pay out whet looks like being achievable, and that figure can be adjusted monthly. They don't hold money back, or push it forward. +3p Jan could be -1p Feb

 

[pappuller]

as I understand, Arla only pay out whet looks like being achievable, and that figure can be adjusted monthly. They don't hold money back, or push it forward. +3p Jan could be -1p Feb

So effectively only a month in advance ?

 

[crashbox]

This is gonna be controversial so hold onto your knickers

I'm after opinions..

Given arlas announcement today of up 2.58ppl shall I order some robots and buy some more pedigrees? what do we think realistically is going to happen to the milk price between April and September?

Reason I ask is for concentrates.

Currently I'm contracted until the end of February/March on a 25% protein blend which I'm paying £336 for.

I will be grazing from March onwards by day and maybe night but buffer fed with maize (I know shoot me in the eye and call me Susan, it's happening regardless) just wondering do I contract for the summer March-September and if so how much should I anticipate pushing the cows with?

I'm thinking of contracting a pokey blend for the fresh cows to go in the oopf and then something more sensible like maize and soya hulls for in the parlour (probably feeding 6kg max in the parlour) they'll have 2kg wheat on top of the naughty maize silage so cows without access to the oopf should hopefully be balanced for 25-30litres depending on grass quality/abundance?

Anything over 30 litres will be in oopf

How hard do I push the fresh ones? 4kg of maize/wheat distillers in the oopf is my initial thinking?

Or do we all think that its going to drop April 1st when the spring calvers come online/autumn calvers have a flush and I should forget the maize distillers in the oopf?

I've got lots (for me) to calve
15 in march, 18 in April, 20 in May, 18 in June, 15 in July so just want to get things right.

I'm off to milk my cows now so I'll look at the replies telling me I'm nuttier than a squirrel in winter in a couple of hours, thanks all

You ever thought about making things simpler?

We buffer with maize and have OOPFs, because we don't have enough acres of platform; arable farmers will grow maize; and we are split block so need to target cake.

What you are advocating really does sound complex.

Will you split the herd, to stop stale cows hogging the maize buffer and going fat?

 

[Enry]

So effectively only a month in advance ?

I suspect they have 1, 3, 6 and 12m projections and tweak as required. Others may delay a rise if they think a fall is going to follow, but I think Arla pretty much pay what they can when they can on the basis that there will be a target 13th payment to balance the books.

Read that Campina went up 4c/l in Dec and are dropping 1.5c for Jan....one swallow does not make a spring