- Location
- Lincolnshire
- US markets close – Soybeans closed higher, despite heavy USDA numbers, on talk of China/US trade talks. Corn traded lower on the back of record US yields. Wheat traded lower on a higher-than-expected global ending stock.
- A record US soybean yield of 52.8bu/ac (previous 51.6bu/ac) resulted in a record 22.98m mt US stock, and helped global production rise 2.22m mt to 369.32m mt. Chinas imports 17/18 & 18/19 were lowered 2m mt & 1m mt respectively.
- A record, and surprise increase - US corn yield of 181.3bu/ac (previous 178.4bu/ac) aided a global production increase of 7.95m mt (total 1069m mt), despite a lowering of Brazil/Argentina production by 1m mt each.
- Wheat production lower in Canada (-1m mt @ 31.5m mt) and Aus (-2m mt @ 20m mt), were offset by an increase in FSU/Russia (+3.5m mt) and India (+2.7m mt), resulting in world production up (+3.37m mt @ 733m mt). The raise in production, coupled with 2.48m mt lower exports, resulted in an increase in ending stocks (+2.33m mt @ 261.29m mt), which was at the very top of the trade analysts range.
- Barley world production saw a downgrade of 1.6m mt (142.7m mt total vs 144.63m mt last yr) with Aus, EU & Ukraine all seeing downgrades, while Russia saw +0.5m mt in line with wheat yield increases.
- GASC bought 235k mt Russian wheat for delivery late Oct18 at a reported $240.25/t, with a lack of reported results on Algeria last night post-USDA. Jordan look for 120k mt wheat today, with Saudi coming to the market for 595k mt of wheat tomorrow for Nov-Dec delivery.
- Jordan only managed to buy 60k mt barley of the total tender requirement of 120k mt yesterday, at a reported $261/t CIF. A direct contrast to the well offered and perceived to be cheap Saudi tender of 1.5m mt from last Friday.
- UK wheat markets moved higher on minimal volumes early in the afternoon, before trading lower post USDA, in line with other markets. Physical values in the North East of the country have come under some pressure following the Vivergo announcement, yet the North West and Southern areas continue to find relatively balanced supply & demand for feed wheat currently.
London Nov ’18 Settle £175.5/t – down £1.10/tonne from previous close
Paris Dec ’18 Settle €199.5 – down €1.75/tonne from previous close
CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle $8.40/bushel – up 8.5 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.525/bushel – down 13.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0675/bushel – down 12.5 cents/bushel from previous close
Currency Today:
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