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Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 28 August 2018

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets close – soybeans lower, but off the earlier lows, after the US/Mexico trade deal was announced. Corn lower but recovered as per soybeans. Wheat lower as market continue to see long managed money liquidation, European weakness and lower Russian prices.
  • For the w/e 21st August CFTC report showed managed money trimmed their Chicago wheat long position by 6136 contracts (now seen 60812 contracts long), while extending their Kansas City wheat long position by 1721 contracts (now seen 64373 contracts long).
  • For the w/e 21st August CFTC report showed managed money reduced their Chicago corn short position by 10138 contracts (now seen 14824 contracts short), while also reducing their Chicago soybean short by 18875 contracts (now seen 40049 contracts short).
  • US Midwest weather forecast has a rain system the middle of the week bringing good to moderate totals to much of the region, but favouring the North, with another good rain event seen over the weekend and early next week. Temperatures bouncing between 70’s-90’s.
  • US 11-16 day forecast turned to close to average temperatures for the Midwest and Plains. Average to a bit below average rainfall is seen for the Midwest, below average rains for the Plains.
  • US and Mexican trade negotiators are close to squaring away bilateral differences on the NAFTA and will resume talks on Monday, with Canada waiting to negotiate next with the US.
  • Farmers in parts of NWS and Queensland have received welcome weekend rains, but warned much more is needed to prevent a drought-related hit to family food budgets, with grain shortages and higher water prices would lead to increases in food prices.
  • China will release state wheat reserves, after bad weather curbed output in major growing areas this year, an official said. Wheat inventories were still ample despite the drop in output, and market supplies would be fully guaranteed, in the same statement.
  • Russia has harvested 74.6mln t of grain with an average yield of 3.00t/ha from 54% of the harvesting area, data from the Ag Ministry showed. It had harvested 85.2mln t with an average yield of 3.70t/ha on the same date a year earlier.
  • The Ukrainian Ag Ministry has no immediate plans to review a memorandum agreed with traders this month, allowing for the export of 8mln t of milling wheat this season, a senior ministry official said on Monday.
  • South Africa’s maize harvest is expected to be slightly lower than previously estimated as crop yields could fall in some regions due to unfavourable weather conditions. The CEC is seen pegging the harvest at 13.11mln, down from its previous 13.207mln t seen back in July.
Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £179.65/t – down £0.85/tonne from previous close (Thursday)

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €199.00 – down €6.75/tonne from previous close (Thursday)

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.4825/bushel – down 5.75 cents/bushel from previous close (Thursday)

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6150/bushel – up 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close (Thursday)

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.2250/bushel – down 19.25 cents/bushel from previous close (Thursday)

UK traded weaker first thing this morning, trading £3/t lower, as UK played ‘catch-up’ after yesterday’s Bank holiday - all markets are a little firmer now, with the UK only down £1.65/t.

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1030

GBP USD 1.2900

EUR GBP 0.9060

EUR USD 1.1690
 

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Webinar: Expanded Sustainable Farming Incentive offer 2024 -26th Sept

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On Thursday 26th September, we’re holding a webinar for farmers to go through the guidance, actions and detail for the expanded Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) offer. This was planned for end of May, but had to be delayed due to the general election. We apologise about that.

Farming and Countryside Programme Director, Janet Hughes will be joined by policy leads working on SFI, and colleagues from the Rural Payment Agency and Catchment Sensitive Farming.

This webinar will be...
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