Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 3 September 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans traded higher on profit taking, prior to the long holiday weekend. Corn higher on bullish technical data. Wheat higher on lower Canadian wheat estimates.
• For the w/e 28th August, CFTC report showed managed money trimmed their Chicago wheat long position by 9632 contracts (now seen 51180 contracts long), while also trimming their Kansas City wheat long position by 2913 contracts (now seen 61460 contracts long).
• For the w/e 28th August, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago corn short position by 42133 contracts (now seen 56957 contracts short), while also extending their Chicago soybean short by 13593 contracts (now seen 53642 contracts short).
• US Midwest weather forecast has no major changes, with rains favouring the north seen on and off for this week. Temperatures still seen running 70’s to the 90’s.
• US 11-16 day forecast has no changes as average temperatures hold for the Midwest and Plains, average to a bit below average rainfall seen for the Midwest, below average rains for the Plains.
• For w/e Aug 23rd, US all wheat sales are running 26% y/y, shipments 35% behind y/y (USDA forecasting a 14% increase y/y). Corn sales 7% ahead y/y, shipments up 2% y/y (USDA 5% increase y/y). Soybean sales 3% behind y/y, shipments up 18% y/y (USDA 22% increase y/y).
• Stats Canada estimated Canadian all-wheat production at 28.398mln t, down 3.3% from last year’s 29.9mln t and below trade estimates of 30.4mln t.
• Conditions in 46% (70% YoY) of Argentina’s 6.1mln ha planted with wheat, were rated as ‘good to excellent’ thanks to a dry growing climate during the first half of the season which has continued, BAGE reported. Exchange also reported 98.5% of the corn harvest was completed.
• Concerns over proportionally less milling wheat poses a headache for Ukraine and Russia, as quality in the Black Sea regions is thought to have worsened with a wet period in late harvest.
• EU Commission has cut their forecast for EU soft wheat exports to 20mln t from a previous estimate of 25.5mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £182.15/t – up £1.90/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €205.50 – up €3.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.4450/bushel – up 12.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6500/bushel – up 8.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.4550/bushel – up 10.50 cents/bushel from previous close

US markets closed today for Labour Day Holiday

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1075

GBP USD 1.2870

EUR GBP 0.9025

EUR USD 1.1620