Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 5 September 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans higher as soymeal gained on new Argentine export taxes. Corn higher, although approaching US harvest offers seasonal resistance. Wheat lower, as Russia suggesting that there is no need to impose export duties triggered fund selling.
• Speculators are not yet ready to ditch the wildly bullish wheat story from earlier in the season according to wires, though they remain cautiously bearish towards Chicago-traded corn and soybean, in terms of position following CFTC report.
• US Midwest weather forecast looks to have waves of rain to impact the region - temperatures continue between 70’s to the 90’s.
• US 11-16 day forecast has close to average temperatures for the Plains and Midwest. The Midwest then has average to below rainfall. The Plains below average rainfall. No cold-air threat.
• Brazil exports 8.13mln t of soybean in Aug18 vs 10.2mln t in July and 5.95mln t a year ago. Corn exports seen at 2.9mln t vs 1.17mln t in July and 5.26mln t a year ago, data from the Trade Ministry showed.
• China will not face a shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter, despite tariffs on imports of the oilseed from the US related to the China-US trade war, an official from the China Soybean Industry Association said.
• Algeria’s grain harvest has reached 6mln t, a 74.4% rise from last year’s harvest, the Ag Minister said. The highest since 2012 when the country harvested 6.9mln t.
• Russian wheat export prices finished unchanged last week, as the early fall was offset by growth in the global benchmark in Chicago, due to concerns about tightening supplies.
• The Russian Ag Ministry expects the grain harvest will amount to about 105mln t this year, which will be enough to meet the needs of the country’s population.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £178.00/t – down £2.70/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €200.50 – down €2.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.4425/bushel – up 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6825/bushel – up 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.3150/bushel – down 14.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1080

GBP USD 1.2820

EUR GBP 0.9020

EUR USD 1.1565