Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 8 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on pre-report covering and drier SA outlook. Corn unchanged on talk of higher US yield/stocks. Wheat lower as rise in US crop ratings offered resistance and may increase selling in front of US weekly sales/ USDA monthly reports.
• US Midwest weather now has colder air pushing in from Canada this week, with highs ranging from 5 to 13 degrees below normal into the weekend. Many cities in the Midwest and Northwest will see the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. US Northern Plains weather will see temperatures plummet from the arctic blast, with overnight temperatures in North Dakota and northern Minnesota slipping below zero. US Delta weather will also see below normal temperatures until Friday, with a warmer trend building into next week. Precipitation will be on the light side.
• National Australian Bank left their Australian wheat production estimate unchanged at 18.7mln t, which reflects the lowest output for a decade.
• India’s wheat sowing, the main Rabi crop, is in full swing in most parts of the country, and the pace will pick up once kharif crops are harvested. Government has kept the wheat output target at 97.5mln t for the 2017-18 crop year (98.38mln t in 2016-17).
• Russia’s wheat exports increased 23% y/y to 13mln t for 2017-18 season so far, with corn exports also up 19.5% y/y at 1.29mln t. Total grains exports so far this season have reached 16.9mln t, up 28% y/y.
• UkrAgroConsult revised its forecast for the country’s 2017 maize harvest to 25.5mln t, down from its previous outlook of 26mln due to yield loss from poor weather. Exportable surplus is projected to be reduced by about 7% to 19.7-19.8mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £139.10/t – up £0.40/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €161.75 – up €1.00/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4775/bushel – down 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.2725/bushel – down 3.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today
GBP EUR 1.1330
GBP USD 1.3135
EUR GBP 0.8825
EUR USD 1.1595