Greed defies logic

[Walterp]

There is a myth that UK farmland prices always go up. Even when prices go down, to the credulous it's only a temporary correction, on the way to ever-higher peaks.

This belief defies logic, of course - by definition land is a factor of production, and so over time prices expressed in real terms can't go higher but, instead, must revert to their long-term mean.

What interests me is how those most heavily-invested in land, with nearly their entire net worth buried in it, want to believe it. So they do. You may point out that their belief is illogical, but that is as effective as trying to convert a Jehovah's Witness to Methodism.

Greed blinds everywhere: before the 1929 crash on Wall Street, the sceptical who questioned the 'permanently high plateau' of stock prices were pilloried, receiving hate mail and death threats. Less well-known, but more germane, was Fed Chairman Volcker being burned in effigy by mortgagors (oddly, there were no savers in the crowds) when he raised the federal funds rate to 20% in 1981.

Taking a wider view, those heavily invested in the present order of things (the list, rather depressingly, hasn't altered much in two centuries - landlords and farmers always feature) allow their vested interest to dictate their perspective.

Soon, panic will set in as those who affected to believe the UK to be better-governed and superior to its neighbours discover that it is, in fact, less so. Interest rates will go down, but it will have no effect - you can encourage confidence, but you cannot create it.

Farms won't sell.

 

[bluebell]

location location, you can buy an estate jin the wilds of scotland of thousands of acres, for a few acres in the home counties?

 

[Clever Dic]

There is a myth that UK farmland prices always go up. Even when prices go down, to the credulous it's only a temporary correction, on the way to ever-higher peaks.

This belief defies logic, of course - by definition land is a factor of production, and so over time prices expressed in real terms can't go higher but, instead, must revert to their long-term mean.

What interests me is how those most heavily-invested in land, with nearly their entire net worth buried in it, want to believe it. So they do. You may point out that their belief is illogical, but that is as effective as trying to convert a Jehovah's Witness to Methodism.

Greed blinds everywhere: before the 1929 crash on Wall Street, the sceptical who questioned the 'permanently high plateau' of stock prices were pilloried, receiving hate mail and death threats. Less well-known, but more germane, was Fed Chairman Volcker being burned in effigy by mortgagors (oddly, there were no savers in the crowds) when he raised the federal funds rate to 20% in 1981.

Taking a wider view, those heavily invested in the present order of things (the list, rather depressingly, hasn't altered much in two centuries - landlords and farmers always feature) allow their vested interest to dictate their perspective.

Soon, panic will set in as those who affected to believe the UK to be better-governed and superior to its neighbours discover that it is, in fact, less so. Interest rates will go down, but it will have no effect - you can encourage confidence, but you cannot create it.

Farms won't sell.

Panic wont set in and land will not crash it is not as if it is Tulips or the Darien scheme. Land will always have a value and folk with money always aspire to own some.Land always has an ability to create a return maybe not the one you wanted or expected but always something so I if given the chance got the opportunity to buy land on my boundary as chances come up not often.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

We are all doomed

 

[richard hammond]

location location, you can buy an estate jin the wilds of scotland of thousands of acres, for a few acres in the home counties?

It can happen within a county, in Lincs land values can be 3 fold for differing areas, mainly land quality!

 

[richard hammond]

We are all doomed

Been hearing that for 40years within this job!! crack on next years a new harvest.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Been hearing that for 40years within this job!! crack on next years a new harvest.

Two big farms just sold in this area, price higher than expected with a lot of interest

Why

Dairy farmers are at a loss renting land and buying fodder, they see buying land as a way to stabilise their business

Better the dept you know than the dept you dont

 

[ski]

There is a myth that UK farmland prices always go up. Even when prices go down, to the credulous it's only a temporary correction, on the way to ever-higher peaks.

This belief defies logic, of course - by definition land is a factor of production, and so over time prices expressed in real terms can't go higher but, instead, must revert to their long-term mean.

What interests me is how those most heavily-invested in land, with nearly their entire net worth buried in it, want to believe it. So they do. You may point out that their belief is illogical, but that is as effective as trying to convert a Jehovah's Witness to Methodism.

Greed blinds everywhere: before the 1929 crash on Wall Street, the sceptical who questioned the 'permanently high plateau' of stock prices were pilloried, receiving hate mail and death threats. Less well-known, but more germane, was Fed Chairman Volcker being burned in effigy by mortgagors (oddly, there were no savers in the crowds) when he raised the federal funds rate to 20% in 1981.

Taking a wider view, those heavily invested in the present order of things (the list, rather depressingly, hasn't altered much in two centuries - landlords and farmers always feature) allow their vested interest to dictate their perspective.

Soon, panic will set in as those who affected to believe the UK to be better-governed and superior to its neighbours discover that it is, in fact, less so. Interest rates will go down, but it will have no effect - you can encourage confidence, but you cannot create it.

Farms won't sell.

Timing, as it is often said, is everything. So when is this correction going to take place?

 

[Clive]

Price of any asset only matters on 2 days

The day you buy it and the day you sell it

What happens in between is not important

 

[Hilly]

There is a myth that UK farmland prices always go up. Even when prices go down, to the credulous it's only a temporary correction, on the way to ever-higher peaks.

This belief defies logic, of course - by definition land is a factor of production, and so over time prices expressed in real terms can't go higher but, instead, must revert to their long-term mean.

What interests me is how those most heavily-invested in land, with nearly their entire net worth buried in it, want to believe it. So they do. You may point out that their belief is illogical, but that is as effective as trying to convert a Jehovah's Witness to Methodism.

Greed blinds everywhere: before the 1929 crash on Wall Street, the sceptical who questioned the 'permanently high plateau' of stock prices were pilloried, receiving hate mail and death threats. Less well-known, but more germane, was Fed Chairman Volcker being burned in effigy by mortgagors (oddly, there were no savers in the crowds) when he raised the federal funds rate to 20% in 1981.

Taking a wider view, those heavily invested in the present order of things (the list, rather depressingly, hasn't altered much in two centuries - landlords and farmers always feature) allow their vested interest to dictate their perspective.

Soon, panic will set in as those who affected to believe the UK to be better-governed and superior to its neighbours discover that it is, in fact, less so. Interest rates will go down, but it will have no effect - you can encourage confidence, but you cannot create it.

Farms won't sell.

Hadnt you better sell up quick smart.

 

[Clive]

location location, you can buy an estate jin the wilds of scotland of thousands of acres, for a few acres in the home counties?

Someone told me last week that an acre in the Netherlands is about 40k ??

Makes uk farmland look cheap ?

 

[lloyd]

There is a myth that UK farmland prices always go up. Even when prices go down, to the credulous it's only a temporary correction, on the way to ever-higher peaks.

This belief defies logic, of course - by definition land is a factor of production, and so over time prices expressed in real terms can't go higher but, instead, must revert to their long-term mean.

What interests me is how those most heavily-invested in land, with nearly their entire net worth buried in it, want to believe it. So they do. You may point out that their belief is illogical, but that is as effective as trying to convert a Jehovah's Witness to Methodism.

Greed blinds everywhere: before the 1929 crash on Wall Street, the sceptical who questioned the 'permanently high plateau' of stock prices were pilloried, receiving hate mail and death threats. Less well-known, but more germane, was Fed Chairman Volcker being burned in effigy by mortgagors (oddly, there were no savers in the crowds) when he raised the federal funds rate to 20% in 1981.

Taking a wider view, those heavily invested in the present order of things (the list, rather depressingly, hasn't altered much in two centuries - landlords and farmers always feature) allow their vested interest to dictate their perspective.

Soon, panic will set in as those who affected to believe the UK to be better-governed and superior to its neighbours discover that it is, in fact, less so. Interest rates will go down, but it will have no effect - you can encourage confidence, but you cannot create it.

Farms won't sell.

Ok are we expecting to see your farm on the market in the next few weeks?
Obviously you'd be able to double your acreage if you got it right and the price of land crashed!
It happened from the values seen in 1984 and those fetched in 86.
So Walterp fortune follows the brave set an example.

 

[milkloss]

Just bail out Wally, you’re getting as bad as Boss!

 

[DRC]

170 acre dairy farm locally, just sold for well over the £2.5 million guide apparently

 

[Hilly]

170 acre dairy farm locally, just sold for well over the £2.5 million guide apparently

What was the guide ?

 

[DRC]

What was the guide ?

The £2.5 . I was told it went for £2.7

 

[Hilly]

The £2.5 . I was told it went for £2.7

Alot of money just too milk a few cows.

 

[DRC]

Alot of money just too milk a few cows.

Established organic dairy farmer bought it for his son . Can’t use the grass for two years , so next door have bought . Handy for them this year as they milk 850

 

[wasted years]

There is a myth that UK farmland prices always go up. Even when prices go down, to the credulous it's only a temporary correction, on the way to ever-higher peaks.

This belief defies logic, of course - by definition land is a factor of production, and so over time prices expressed in real terms can't go higher but, instead, must revert to their long-term mean.

What interests me is how those most heavily-invested in land, with nearly their entire net worth buried in it, want to believe it. So they do. You may point out that their belief is illogical, but that is as effective as trying to convert a Jehovah's Witness to Methodism.

Greed blinds everywhere: before the 1929 crash on Wall Street, the sceptical who questioned the 'permanently high plateau' of stock prices were pilloried, receiving hate mail and death threats. Less well-known, but more germane, was Fed Chairman Volcker being burned in effigy by mortgagors (oddly, there were no savers in the crowds) when he raised the federal funds rate to 20% in 1981.

Taking a wider view, those heavily invested in the present order of things (the list, rather depressingly, hasn't altered much in two centuries - landlords and farmers always feature) allow their vested interest to dictate their perspective.

Soon, panic will set in as those who affected to believe the UK to be better-governed and superior to its neighbours discover that it is, in fact, less so. Interest rates will go down, but it will have no effect - you can encourage confidence, but you cannot create it.

Farms won't sell.

If interest rates 'go down' is lower than now why would farms not sell?
Non farmers would buy them in droves I think , there is money ' a main' in the economy.

 

[DrWazzock]

Family been in this job since 1600 and most likely earlier.

Land prices going up and down is a bit of a sideshow. All I'm really interested in is growing decent crops and getting them harvested. Everything else looks after itself if you get that right.

If land prices go up it doesn't really help me greatly as retiring partners need a bigger payout, bigger divorce settlements etc so high price is not helpful.

If this farm goes back down to being worth £22 / acre as it was in 1953 then it won't worry me in the slightest. (The neighbours only paid 7 shillings an acre). Couldn't give it away. Plenty went bust even paying those prices though.

Don't worry and fret. Don't retire. Just crack on. Best way.