I'm not sure its that grim, certainly not for the top 25%. Note that these figures assume an imputed rent so where land is owned (and most land is owner occupied) that should be included in the profit. But yes, the bottom 25% should sell up.
I have recently run a few numbers on '22 and '23 harvest.
Unless yields are crop failure bad, gross margins for '22 will be spectacular, the best we have ever seen. With moderate yield estimates, using actual input costs and current forward prices I get a gross margin of £2,300 per hect for W Wheat. By gross margin, I mean crop sales less direct costs (ferts, sprays, seed).
Harvest '23 will less good, but still reasonable. Using current fert prices, assuming a decent dose of ag chem inflation and current forward wheat prices I see a gross margin of around £1,200 per hect. Even without BPS that still leaves a healthy profit after labour, machinery and other overheads.
I have recently run a few numbers on '22 and '23 harvest.
Unless yields are crop failure bad, gross margins for '22 will be spectacular, the best we have ever seen. With moderate yield estimates, using actual input costs and current forward prices I get a gross margin of £2,300 per hect for W Wheat. By gross margin, I mean crop sales less direct costs (ferts, sprays, seed).
Harvest '23 will less good, but still reasonable. Using current fert prices, assuming a decent dose of ag chem inflation and current forward wheat prices I see a gross margin of around £1,200 per hect. Even without BPS that still leaves a healthy profit after labour, machinery and other overheads.