Harvest Figures - Thoughts?

[teslacoils]

DEFRA first figures for UK wheat are 10.1mt, and barley at 8.36mt.

So total barley up 3 percent. Wheat down 40 percent.

Word is carryover isn't as big as first though.

How's this going to pan out then? WTO tarrrifs anyone?

 

[snarling bee]

Wheat 9.0, barley 8.0

 

[robs1]

Are their forecasts as good as the bbc weather ones ?

 

[teslacoils]

Lol.

I did wonder if the 10.1 was there to avoid "UK WHEAT UNDER 10M TONS" news. Which I think we all know it is. Add in reduced carry forward.

 

[Brisel]

Are their forecasts as good as the bbc weather ones ?

Better - DEFRA could pick up the Farmers Weekly to see the “below average 11.5t/ha yields”

 

[yellow belly]

the 10 .1 includes an estimate for wales and scotland so will be revised down as the estimate is for avarage yields
most yield figures give 20% under the 5 year average

from a farmers marketing perspective importing half a million tonnes or 4 million make little diference to price
the big issue is users getting it when they need it
farmers have plenty of storage so only need to move it for cash reasons
the covid bounce back loan affords cheap money with no security

 

[teslacoils]

Can only import it from folk who have it to sell. I'm more interested in the idea that the flood of barley does not appear to be so huge.

 

[Clive]

I can't see it being as high as 10 million ? most on here seem to be at least 1/3 down and many 50% down on a good year ? very few sports of average pr higher yield anywhere but the agenda ridden farming press ! if typical that would suggest more like 7-8 million


are they learning from the USDA ?

 

[Sandy]

Can only import it from folk who have it to sell. I'm more interested in the idea that the flood of barley does not appear to be so huge.

There’s Tens of thousands of Tons of barley sitting in sheds up here after a bumper harvest it’s all got to find a home.

 

[Right-arm fast]

I can't see it being as high as 10 million ? most on here seem to be at least 1/3 down and many 50% down on a good year ? very few sports of average pr higher yield anywhere but the agenda ridden farming press ! if typical that would suggest more like 7-8 million


are they learning from the USDA ?

Some of us didn’t have any w wheat to harvest due to the prolonged wet weather.

 

[teslacoils]

There’s Tens of thousands of Tons of barley sitting in sheds up here after a bumper harvest it’s all got to find a home.

That's good as I don't know a crop of winter barley in the east that did 2t and some considerably less.

 

[4course]

Can only import it from folk who have it to sell. I'm more interested in the idea that the flood of barley does not appear to be so huge.

barley has not yielded as well as some think dirty samples off combine and lower than usual bushel in places , just look at the volume in seed bags against the wheat

 

[Clive]

Some of us didn’t have any w wheat to harvest due to the prolonged wet weather.

there is also that ! nothing pulls down an "average" than a zero !

 

[Jo28]

We finished around 80% down on last year and most around here will be