How Great is the Reduction in Agricultural Production?

[Frank-the-Wool]

Looking around where we live the amount of unproductive land continues to increase.
Now I know we are very different in the south east as other factors come into play, especially cost and lack of labour.

There are hundreds of acres not being farmed now.
Very large areas of ungrazed grassland, which may get cut for hay, although the market for it is now limited. Horse numbers are declining.
A large area of Spring crops were never planted and many that were will not be worth combining.
Sheep numbers continue to decline with one local arable farm just sold the whole flock. Other have sold ewe hoggets to kill.

Suckler cow numbers are still falling or completely disappearing.
Very few Dairy farms left and more likely to go unless milk price improves.

Fruit farms are clearing orchards and while some are talking about planting Vines others are unsure what to do.
Very difficult planting trees without irrigation now.
Only one sizeable potato grower left.

Weather conditions have made it more difficult to farm in this region and are an added factor. This will be the fourth year of summer droughts which makes life difficult.

Will there be a turning point?

 

[Farmer Roy]

Probably not . . .


it has been a factor here for a few years that farmers have been moving to different geographical areas to try & manage changing climate patterns.

not just vineyards for example, but industries as diverse from that as beef cattle & cotton as well

 

[Wood field]

Our little farm is surrounded by two other “ woodfield’s” known as lower (us)higher and woodfield top .higher is reverting to scrub / moor the people who live there actively chase any stock that get in the overgrown fields ( as well as wildlife)
Woodfield top is falling down around the owners ears
A local lady told me as a little girl she used to watch all the meadows cut for hay and grazed
Only a small area but it seems to be becoming the norm

 

[Andrew_Ni]

Any land that comes up for rent around here is snatched up by ever expanding dairy farmers or digesters. There’s no shortage of demand and certainly no land sitting idle or abandoned. At £15-20,000/acre to sell or £200-300/acre (maybe more) for grassland rent.

Give it a few years and for all you know you could see a ”dig for victory” campaign if Adolf Putin is still knocking about .

 

[Bramble]

Ironic really that the government wants industries in general to improve their productivity to drive GDP, yet their policies actively encourage agriculture to be less productive (SFI/ELMS/rewilding/NVZ’s/carbon storage etc etc).

I can’t think of any policies that encourage agriculture productivity

 

[cattleman123]

Agree production is falling, in our area its the the harder to farm land that is suffering and with the SPS going it is going to get far worst that is a certainty, if the rent for this poor land was £65 quid an acre and you got £90 in sub you farmed it..no sub no point and tenanted land is going to fare far worst as many lets are short term for what ever reason so you cant really get involved in any of these stupid schemes, and like myself so many of us are getting older and what young man can afford to work for very little.

 

[Andrew_Ni]

With agriculture being a devolved matter, Northern Ireland seems, at the moment to have taken a view of production/food security. Having said that I wouldn’t be surprised if a radical Dutch scheme was knocking about in a year or 2. Republic of Ireland is now looking to cull 65,000 dairy cows per year over the 3 years all to meet their climate targets.

 

[MrNoo]

Had a meeting with my land agent yesterday re Stewardship, he said a lot are going into it. I am, putting the lot down to AB8. On our marginal soils it's a no brainer.

 

[delilah]

Everything in the OP is true. And yet we have 10 million customers at the end of the drive. Something has gone seriously awry. The infrastructure to get our output to those customers maybe ? Now how did that infrastructure, that was always in place, come to be lost I wonder ?

 

[ford 7810]

No not up here digester plant farm buying and renting any available acre and farm available that will plough or silage, but that’s definitely not farming money is it?. A lot of Young people, very keen, but there’s been no sheep on high ground or fells for a lot of years, just growing wild ,fire hazard in this weather. dairy farms are dwindling away steadily, but the bigger ones are getting bigger.

 

[bluebell]

Frank- the - wool your right, round my local area, land is rapidly been "built on", (south essex), but the other extreme to that is, i could show you hundreds of acres of once productive farm land, that a few years ago was either growing crops or producing grass to be cut or grazed for by lifestock, "abandoned", example, up the road from me a 45 acre field that all ways grew wheat/barley/oilseed rape, now abandoned? awaiting, trying to be "built on", another lump 70 odd acres, again grew arable crops up to 20 years ago then in set aside , now abandoned, and more land like this just local to me? If this is general across the UK there must be many many thousands of acres now of once productive farm land gradualy going "derelict" i think the over riding reason for this is the shear lack of "profit" against the risk, work, and worry, that any type of agricultural "production" on this land produces is the main reason? This year for example, must be one of the best years to make hay right across the UK, wheres the market, animals now for all this produce?

 

[Bramble]

With agriculture being a devolved matter, Northern Ireland seems, at the moment to have taken a view of production/food security. Having said that I wouldn’t be surprised if a radical Dutch scheme was knocking about in a year or 2. Republic of Ireland is now looking to cull 65,000 dairy cows per year over the 3 years all to meet their climate targets.

Yet 15 years ago the stated aim of the Irish governemnt was to double output from the dairy sector (big grants available) to take advantage of the growing market across the world for dairy products. In reality most of the product ended up over here, depressing our prices

 

[bluebell]

The turning point, if it "has to come", is very simple? food, its value, worth, importance has to be come "important" again, the only example of that, within living memory for "our" great older generations, was the time leading up to WW2, when lessons learnt during WW1, started to be put into place, when war looked certain, Farming, producing food, quickly became "important" and for farmers and growers, became very profitable again as "maximum" production was "demanded" yes demanded by govt?

 

[texelburger]

Looking around where we live the amount of unproductive land continues to increase.
Now I know we are very different in the south east as other factors come into play, especially cost and lack of labour.

There are hundreds of acres not being farmed now.
Very large areas of ungrazed grassland, which may get cut for hay, although the market for it is now limited. Horse numbers are declining.
A large area of Spring crops were never planted and many that were will not be worth combining.
Sheep numbers continue to decline with one local arable farm just sold the whole flock. Other have sold ewe hoggets to kill.

Suckler cow numbers are still falling or completely disappearing.
Very few Dairy farms left and more likely to go unless milk price improves.

Fruit farms are clearing orchards and while some are talking about planting Vines others are unsure what to do.
Very difficult planting trees without irrigation now.
Only one sizeable potato grower left.

Weather conditions have made it more difficult to farm in this region and are an added factor. This will be the fourth year of summer droughts which makes life difficult.

Will there be a turning point?

Combine this with the huge acreage,nationally, going into houses,road developments and industry and one wonders where they get the stats from with regards acreages of crops grown.They rarely say that acreage is down.

 

[MrNoo]

Yet 15 years ago the stated aim of the Irish governemnt was to double output from the dairy sector (big grants available) to take advantage of the growing market across the world for dairy products. In reality most of the product ended up over here, depressing our prices

Large outfit around here 1100 cows, indoor housed, reducing down to 300 and talk of even getting rid of those. If they can't make it work what hope is there for others......

 

[ford 7810]

We just keep going around in circles First World War grow grow grow 1930s farms abandoned Second World War grow grow grow. it is ridiculous food doesn’t seem important food and water are the main essential part of life.

 

[Hilly]

Forestry snaps up most land thats traded round here ….. past caring myself ..

 

[Grass And Grain]

Had a meeting with my land agent yesterday re Stewardship, he said a lot are going into it. I am, putting the lot down to AB8. On our marginal soils it's a no brainer.

We have 40% stewardship.

With removal of neonics I can imagine lots of arable farms doing stewardship. Finger in the air, could be 20+%???

I can see it affecting supply and hence prices. Will it affect cereal tonnage? Not as much as it will OSR area. Biggest hit will be to AHDB income and supply trade income. We've cut out OSR, have less land available for local spud, carrot and maize growers, we've also cut out second cereals on the sand land, so less barley and less straw.

If we become a net importer, then theoretically our prices jump £30/t..That said, there could be a jump in first cereals and glut of feed wheat?

Solar, stewardship and digesters are taking land at a scale which will affect food supply (and hence prices).

100% stewardship, solar or let for AD silage means no Red Tractor nonsense to deal with . Slippers on, feet up, could get a job for a hobby, more leisure time. It's appealing.

 

[Hilly]

Large outfit around here 1100 cows, indoor housed, reducing down to 300 and talk of even getting rid of those. If they can't make it work what hope is there for others......

I bet due to cheap money a few have built the dream in dairy but is now a nightmare that they stick with paying back that cheap money … anyone out of debt is just saying fek it ….

 

[soapsud]

Will there be a turning point?
Obviously, it'll pivot on whether there is a market to market your produce i.e. there isn't the infrastructure to process SME farms' meat/grain etc.
The South East is sprawling conurbation with the odd green space and AONB. It is not an indicator of what's to become nationally. It's the exception.

(Lots of my little ponies still down here in Dorset amongst the second home owners )