How will you adapt to survive post subsidies?

[Brisel]

Cash flow is fine, as long as it is net positive at the end of the year.

TB - fair comment. AFU? The culls "appear" to be reducing breakdown numbers... Sorry, I don't mean to be tempting fate!

Agreed on the last point.

 

[gone up the hill]

Cash flow is fine, as long as it is net positive at the end of the year.

TB - fair comment. AFU? The culls "appear" to be reducing breakdown numbers... Sorry, I don't mean to be tempting fate!

Agreed on the last point.

AFU's are becoming unworkable now as well because if your in a cull area your grazing AFU licence will be removed 2 years from the start date of the cull meaning you would have to house all cattle 365 days of the year.

Culls are reducing herd outbreaks but the trouble is the TB cattle movement controls are being ramped up at the same pace as outbreaks are decreasing in cull areas.

Take North Devon, some hellish big outbreaks of TB in cattle down there recently, several farms have been wiped out and cant restock for six months.

 

[spin cycle]

judging by the voting at the mo....40% plan to expand....thus perhaps rents will go up in real terms?.....so £150/ac now...less sfp £80 equals £70.....but given more competition that might go back up by £20?

 

[Walterp]

So to simplify it you are hoping the scheme money will finance your grass keep / bought in forage to carry these extra animals ?

No, that would not be attractive to us.

The point of the scheme is to make us financially independent of either cattle or sheep.

 

[GTB]

There will be less support for farming in its current form, therefore you're going to have to do something different or accept living on less.

How many farmers have done a resource appraisal recently? You might want to consider asking someone outside the business to give an outisde view

What have you got? Not just land & buildings - experience, training, transferable skills.
What's your location? What local opportunities are there?
What else could you do with it?
What is there a demand for?? Good provenance, tourists, organic, high welfare, environmental demand, diversification...

Edit: Why wait to re-evaluate your business?

Well we are looking into various options of course just as most others I'm sure but it would be silly IMHO to make big changes until we know what's happening. You can't milk the system until you know what the system is???

 

[digger64]

No, that would not be attractive to us.don't e point of the scheme is to make us financially independent of either cattle or sheep.

That bit makes sense but unless you are very lightly stocked now or have new land I dont see how you can do both , if milk prices rise would that mean your extra keep would cost more ?

 

[Walterp]

That bit makes sense but unless you are very lightly stocked now or have new land I dont see how you can do both , if milk prices rise would that mean your extra keep would cost more ?

Well, milk is on the way down again...

We work around the corn, cutting wholecrop and feeding it, not being able to spray means grass for sheep, cover crops and winter rye means early grazing for cattle, before going back into turnips. That's the basic rotation.

Extra ground? Nice to have, but one thing that has really been brought home is how good value bought-in silage really is - we used to make 100's of acres of silage (and took all Summer to do it) when, looking back, we should've kept more cattle and bought in more of the silage.

Looking forward, there's only so much ground the dairy boys need, and older farmers prefer to make silage for sale than to keep stock, so there's a possible trend there.

 

[FonterraFarmer]

Makes no difference down here, it just has that "1984" feeling repeating.....Rogerbollocks

 

[Farmer Roy]

The key is to be adaptable if possible , there's always a market for something .

That's pretty much how we roll here. Adaptability, flexibility & resilience are key to surviving in an ever changing environment

 

[Brisel]

Well we are looking into various options of course just as most others I'm sure but it would be silly IMHO to make big changes until we know what's happening. You can't milk the system until you know what the system is???

Follow the herd then and wait for your fate to come to you. Why not forge your own "system?"

I intend to continue making my farm as resilient as possible, starting 7 years ago when I came here. As for milking the system, I've taken 10% of the farm out of production on marginal land for the very environmental features Mr Gove is talking about, none of which are new. There has been no rain erosion in my fields for 2 years since adopting earlier drilling on steeper ground, ceasing ploughing and maintaining continuous green cover. That's the natural capital that might be subsidised. If not, it's still good for the soil & the bottom line anyway. Win win. There's an opportunity to be part of the future & I'm not sitting around wating for it to be dumped on my doorstep.

 

[rob1]

depends hugely on where you are in the country,those of us who live near lots of people will have many opportunities to make money, those in the really remote places less so,the trouble with the former is that you need to be a people person and accept that you need other people around the place, a lot of farmers I know arent that keen on other humans that dont farm.

 

[steveR]

If you're farming for subs Walt you're in the wrong game .

Why?

Makes perfect business sense... I have been farming for 45 odd years, all of them have been supported by one payment or another. Production, area or environmental makes no odds, I will adapt and keep on taking them...

I was pilloried by a neighbour and his FiL for my jumping into the Stewardship bed over 20 years ago. Now who has joined in...?Same was said about the (slightly ludicrous) crops like Linseed in days gone by. I was accused of dubious morality, if not downright fraud for growing the stuff,especially seed crops, with the aim of harvesting support payments. My response was always, why not?

I grew my Dexter suckler herd from a couple of animals for the freezer, to nearly 40 suckler cows, allowing me to maximise SCP, on a smaller area of grassland, as they had another bonus in that they were classed as 0.7LU for Stewardship grassland.!!The dexterbeef business was selling beef direct to the customer from about 1995 for 15 odd years, so that was pure commercial... The recession in 2008/9 effectively killed my market and with the loss of my processing partner, I sold the specialist stock rather than incur losses and hassle.

However, my argument is that I will, and always have, followed the Subsidy Tit, I sleep well at night and have grown the business over the past 20 years. If support goes, (which I actually doubt) I will adapt further again even if I have reached the "average" age of a farmer now at 60, and I am not really arsed with expanding further. I'll couch down, use the income from the various diverse sources I have developed, and dog and stick the grassland. If we go all Enviro, then the grassland reversion will suit another extensive cattle business in my dotage!!



Plan B is 100ac of houses.....!!

 

[jonnieboy]

Probably Quarry some more land , build houses and if everyone is wanting to expand let the rest off for vast amounts
Hellfire, FBT agreement /Tenerife sounds better than wheat , wheat osr Tenerife

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

Surprised that nobody has said they plan to downsize livestock, let out some owned land and look for off farm employment to subsidise their lifestyle and reduce risk?

It would seem like the obvious solution.

"If the government won't subsidise my farming, then I'll subsidise it myself."

 

[jonnieboy]

Surprised that nobody has said they plan to downsize livestock, let out some owned land and look for off farm employment to subsidise their lifestyle and reduce risk?

It would seem like the obvious solution.

"If the government won't subsidise my farming, then I'll subsidise it myself."

Now there lies the stumbling block @Brisel can you imagine going before the board saying we wont make any money but we need to expand so I can keep my job . I couldn't see my job lasting very long
I would prefer to say we would expand and make it a more efficient business , the roots of this are in place now but over pricing of FBT's will I fear make this uneconomical.

 

[GTB]

Follow the herd then and wait for your fate to come to you. Why not forge your own "system?"

I intend to continue making my farm as resilient as possible, starting 7 years ago when I came here. As for milking the system, I've taken 10% of the farm out of production on marginal land for the very environmental features Mr Gove is talking about, none of which are new. There has been no rain erosion in my fields for 2 years since adopting earlier drilling on steeper ground, ceasing ploughing and maintaining continuous green cover. That's the natural capital that might be subsidised. If not, it's still good for the soil & the bottom line anyway. Win win. There's an opportunity to be part of the future & I'm not sitting around wating for it to be dumped on my doorstep.

To be fair though you have far more options where you are than I have here. Our land is too steep for cropping etc. Our only options are livestock or trees.

 

[Bill the Bass]

It's been plain all along that the UK could not realistically expect to exit the EU and re-design itself as something else other than what we have developed into over the last 40 years. It'd be like Claudia Shieffer trying to turn into Julie - just not going to happen, is it? She can't lamb, for a start...

And thus it has proved, thank goodness.

So we shall continue with intensive environmental schemes (which remain the direction of travel for policy, even though I can't really see why), and carry on expanding both sheep and cattle enterprises now that the UK remains within the orbit of the Customs Union and Internal Market. I'm fairly sure that that cannot now alter, despite the posturing of various (Tory) politicians.

Figures? The flock will be taken from 250 to 500 ewes, the cattle from 65 to 120, and then Julie and I shall see whether our son wants to take over, or whether we cash in.

The BPS? On 350 acres it was projected to fall to £19,000 by 2020, and given the above (plus Brussel's plans to reform the CAP for more greening and, perhaps, some repatriation of policy) it was always likely to fall again; we guess £15,000.

At its peak it was £40,000, so we've already been in adjustment mode for some years.

I am struggling to keep up with you.

Many of your previous posts have been goading people to assess and change their businesses in preparation for impending doom with talk of 'plan B', Umbrella's and the like, yet you seem to pay no attention to your own advice.

Despite recent events, we know that the UK government's direction of travel with ag policy is to eventually remove direct support for farmers, have the private sector pay for the environmental improvements and they have also said a 'hard Brexit' may well still happen in the future so why base a business on relying on BPS, agri-environment support, and two commodities reliant on the support/'umbrella' of the single market?

Surely the sensible thing to do would be to plan for the inevitable, which albeit may be some years away; i.e. no public support and world market prices for cattle and sheep? Seems to me you are doing the exact opposite of what you advised everyone else to do only weeks ago and burying your head in the sand.

Don't mean to be rude, just genuinely intrigued by your answer given the nature of your previous posts.

 

[Brisel]

To be fair though you have far more options where you are than I have here. Our land is too steep for cropping etc. Our only options are livestock or trees.

Forestry is likely to be subsidised. Sell or lease the carbon credits. Every threat is an opportunity too.

 

[Brisel]

Now there lies the stumbling block @Brisel can you imagine going before the board saying we wont make any money but we need to expand so I can keep my job . I couldn't see my job lasting very long
I would prefer to say we would expand and make it a more efficient business , the roots of this are in place now but over pricing of FBT's will I fear make this uneconomical.

I wouldn't word it like that! Whether or not I keep my job is down to the board. Someone has to look after the place & they want the control of farming in hand which is good for me We've expanded in the past to improve returns. Why not now or in the future? You're right about rents being unrealistic at the moment so we're in no hurry to give the profits away in rent, chasing diminishing returns. I don't believe in "expand at any cost." If the board decide to change policy and rewild it, rent it out or whatever then I'm out of a job. Just another opportunity to find another job with one of the joint venture/contracting farm businesses who have chosen to expand, or do something else.

 

[rob1]

Forestry is likely to be subsidised. Sell or lease the carbon credits. Every threat is an opportunity too.

Far more opportunities than time to take advantage of them, some just need look up and open their eyes