Input inflation followed by a PRICE CRASH?????? deja vu

As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?
 

Johnnyboxer

Member
Location
Yorkshire
As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?
ELMS will come to save you
 

gatepost

Member
Location
Cotswolds
Over the years it has become increasingly obvious that global issues beyond our control and certainly beyond planning for, beyond just budgeting at a realistic level, can be accounted for, so yes it might crash, or may not, those that are bullish and like running on fresh air do well when it all keeps going but quietly disappear when it doesn't, and those that have realistic budgets aspirations, still there years later, but don't make the headlines. Like the stock market, don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
 

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Scottish Borders
N fert has risen from, say, 55p/kgN (urea at £250, where it was for a long period) to 70.6p/kgN (urea at £325, current).
Difference is 15.6p/kgN, or £32.76/Ha at 210kg, or £3.28/t for a 10t crop. Or £3280 'profit forgone' for a 1000t of wheat output.
And thats assuming you didn't buy any fert at the lower price.

@Bossfarmer if this is the difference between survival and penury, then it's not the world nitrogen price thats to blame.
 
N fert has risen from, say, 55p/kgN (urea at £250, where it was for a long period) to 70.6p/kgN (urea at £325, current).
Difference is 15.6p/kgN, or £32.76/Ha at 210kg, or £3.28/t for a 10t crop. Or £3280 'profit forgone' for a 1000t of wheat output.
And thats assuming you didn't buy any fert at the lower price.

@Bossfarmer if this is the difference between survival and penury, then it's not the world nitrogen price thats to blame.
is a 10t crop average these days? it could rise yet and i fully expect it to if the wheat price stays up
 

ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
N fert has risen from, say, 55p/kgN (urea at £250, where it was for a long period) to 70.6p/kgN (urea at £325, current).
Difference is 15.6p/kgN, or £32.76/Ha at 210kg, or £3.28/t for a 10t crop. Or £3280 'profit forgone' for a 1000t of wheat output.
And thats assuming you didn't buy any fert at the lower price.

@Bossfarmer if this is the difference between survival and penury, then it's not the world nitrogen price thats to blame.
Well said, being fixated on input costs and blaming them for problems is often due to ignoring the important overheads.
 

T Hectares

Member
Location
Berkshire
As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?
Does it matter??
We operate in a market that is driven by global events and markets, there’s nothing we can do if Putin slaps on or reduces an export tax, all we can do is get our own houses in order to run efficient lean businesses that can withstand the lean years and reap the bounty in the good ones
Thankfully all my N was bought very nicely last year 👍🏻
 
Location
North Notts
As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?
Wheat at £200 and urea at £300 is far better than wheat at £150 and urea at £200 . I hear what you’re saying and agreed fert will track wheat faster in a upward trend than a downwards trend but we had a chance to buy at a decent price .
 

AHDB winding down horticulture and potatoes operations as Ministerial decision awaited

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AHDB has announced yesterday it is winding down significant activities on behalf of the horticulture and potatoes sectors.

While still awaiting a decision on the future by Ministers in England, Scotland and Wales, AHDB wants to reassure levy payers their views have been heard following recent ballots in the two sectors.

AHDB is now stopping programmes of work that could be restarted in the future by grower associations, individual growers or the supply chain. This work includes for example, export market access and promotional international trade event work, consumer marketing campaigns and market pricing and insight information. AHDB will continue to deliver limited emergency work on pests and diseases, including the Extension of Authorisation for Minor Use (EAMU)’s and some...
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