Input inflation followed by a PRICE CRASH?????? deja vu

[Bossfarmer]

As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?

 

[Dockers]

New era, new price band . MAYBE ?? I am feeling on the ' bullish ' side though !!! Down side £150/tonne ???

 

[Johnnyboxer]

As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?

ELMS will come to save you

 

[gatepost]

Over the years it has become increasingly obvious that global issues beyond our control and certainly beyond planning for, beyond just budgeting at a realistic level, can be accounted for, so yes it might crash, or may not, those that are bullish and like running on fresh air do well when it all keeps going but quietly disappear when it doesn't, and those that have realistic budgets aspirations, still there years later, but don't make the headlines. Like the stock market, don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

 

[teslacoils]

If ferts too dear don't buy it. If wheats too cheap don't grow / sell it.

Everyone else, we'll just carry on spinning the wheel.

 

[PSQ]

N fert has risen from, say, 55p/kgN (urea at £250, where it was for a long period) to 70.6p/kgN (urea at £325, current).
Difference is 15.6p/kgN, or £32.76/Ha at 210kg, or £3.28/t for a 10t crop. Or £3280 'profit forgone' for a 1000t of wheat output.
And thats assuming you didn't buy any fert at the lower price.

@Bossfarmer if this is the difference between survival and penury, then it's not the world nitrogen price thats to blame.

 

[Pan mixer]

The pig price has already crashed, it is chilly down here.

 

[Bossfarmer]

N fert has risen from, say, 55p/kgN (urea at £250, where it was for a long period) to 70.6p/kgN (urea at £325, current).
Difference is 15.6p/kgN, or £32.76/Ha at 210kg, or £3.28/t for a 10t crop. Or £3280 'profit forgone' for a 1000t of wheat output.
And thats assuming you didn't buy any fert at the lower price.

@Bossfarmer if this is the difference between survival and penury, then it's not the world nitrogen price thats to blame.

is a 10t crop average these days? it could rise yet and i fully expect it to if the wheat price stays up

 

[teslacoils]

is a 10t crop average these days? it could rise yet and i fully expect it to if the wheat price stays up

Not this year's.

 

[Against_the_grain]

Best cure for high prices......?

 

[ajd132]

N fert has risen from, say, 55p/kgN (urea at £250, where it was for a long period) to 70.6p/kgN (urea at £325, current).
Difference is 15.6p/kgN, or £32.76/Ha at 210kg, or £3.28/t for a 10t crop. Or £3280 'profit forgone' for a 1000t of wheat output.
And thats assuming you didn't buy any fert at the lower price.

@Bossfarmer if this is the difference between survival and penury, then it's not the world nitrogen price thats to blame.

Well said, being fixated on input costs and blaming them for problems is often due to ignoring the important overheads.

 

[ridger]

is a 10t crop average these days? it could rise yet and i fully expect it to if the wheat price stays up

Surely you know what your average crop is?

 

[Bald Rick]

The pig price has already crashed, it is chilly down here.

Thought that was more to do with export problems?

Seems lot of foodstuffs are suffering at the moment.

Sort it Carrie

 

[T Hectares]

As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?

Does it matter??
We operate in a market that is driven by global events and markets, there’s nothing we can do if Putin slaps on or reduces an export tax, all we can do is get our own houses in order to run efficient lean businesses that can withstand the lean years and reap the bounty in the good ones
Thankfully all my N was bought very nicely last year

 

[Pan mixer]

Thought that was more to do with export problems?

Seems lot of foodstuffs are suffering at the moment.

Sort it Carrie

Oversupply in Europe because the Germans can't export to China since their country now has some African Swine Fever in it.

 

[average farmer]

As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?

Wheat at £200 and urea at £300 is far better than wheat at £150 and urea at £200 . I hear what you’re saying and agreed fert will track wheat faster in a upward trend than a downwards trend but we had a chance to buy at a decent price .

 

[yellow belly]

Wheat at £200 and urea at £300 is far better than wheat at £150 and urea at £200 . I hear what you’re saying and agreed fert will track wheat faster in a upward trend than a downwards trend but we had a chance to buy at a decent price .

When wheat was £70 Fert at £120 it was a lot harder 15 years ago

 

[glasshouse]

When wheat was £70 Fert at £120 it was a lot harder 15 years ago

Thats when rents went negative

 

[Brisel]

Thats when rents went negative

Where? In your part of Scotland? That certainly wasn’t the case in the South. Plenty of rent review notices served though.

 

[Bossfarmer]

Thats when rents went negative

did they?