Invasion bets

[beardface]

Well, I am neither. But it would pose a very great strategic risk to at least one - and maybe both of them - too. I think, on balance, if I were XI I'd suggest such a thing to Putin, and then have a real go-slow for my part; and wait and see...

If I were xi I'd see how nato responds to putins "incursion". If the response is weak I'd seriously consider an "incursion" myself.....

 

[Exfarmer]

The two situations are very different, unless Xi has a vast paratroop force, and with the best will
Taiwan is probably not the best to invade aerialy . Xi will need a ship bourne invasion to ensure success and that was extremely difficult to do in secret in 1944. Today with satellite surveillance and the internet it is certain that Taiwan will be very much aware before a force has crossed one quarter of the 80 mile straight.
It is fairly certain Xi could force his will if necessary but the cost would be vast

 

[beardface]

The two situations are very different, unless Xi has a vast paratroop force, and with the best will
Taiwan is probably not the best to invade aerialy . Xi will need a ship bourne invasion to ensure success and that was extremely difficult to do in secret in 1944. Today with satellite surveillance and the internet it is certain that Taiwan will be very much aware before a force has crossed one quarter of the 80 mile straight.
It is fairly certain Xi could force his will if necessary but the cost would be vast

China, like Russia, has a very good hacking team. Shut down Taiwans communications then go for it. Look at Tonga.

 

[manhill]

Can't have a war with China, I haven't completed my shopping list yet!

 

[oil barron]

Yugoslavia is waiting for an excuse to have a go at each other again by all accounts as well.

 

[Exfarmer]

China, like Russia, has a very good hacking team. Shut down Taiwans communications then go for it. Look at Tonga.

Did you not see the pictures of the actual explosion from a satellite, beamed around the world from a receiving station in Tokyo 5,000 miles away in seconds of it happening. You can be certain Taiwan will have secure military links to the US. They also have an ambitious submarine building programme to make a seabourne invasion very costly

 

[teslacoils]

£10 to lincs air ambulance says Russia doesn't invade Ukraine before Defender Of The Fatherland Day (23rd Feb).

 

[Danllan]

The two situations are very different, unless Xi has a vast paratroop force, and with the best will
Taiwan is probably not the best to invade aerialy . Xi will need a ship bourne invasion to ensure success and that was extremely difficult to do in secret in 1944. Today with satellite surveillance and the internet it is certain that Taiwan will be very much aware before a force has crossed one quarter of the 80 mile straight.
It is fairly certain Xi could force his will if necessary but the cost would be vast

You need to understand the Chinese mindset regarding Taiwan; telling the average chap there that it's not going to be brought back into the fold would be like telling an Orange-man staying in the UK is a non-starter. Xi probably does not much care about the cost of lives for either Taiwan or China, he's put his name behind the idea.

But it is a hard task; the shortest line between both mainlands is actually a bit over 100 miles, a fairly easily defensible distance. Yet, as you wrote, if Xi is prepared for losses - which would never be fully reported anyway - he could do it.

Of course this is another reason why China hates the idea of the AUKUS deal, and another why he'll be more likely to act sooner than later.

China, like Russia, has a very good hacking team. Shut down Taiwans communications then go for it. Look at Tonga.

 

[Exfarmer]

You need to understand the Chinese mindset regarding Taiwan; telling the average chap there that it's not going to be brought back into the fold would be like telling an Orange-man staying in the UK is a non-starter. Xi probably does not much care about the cost of lives for either Taiwan or China, he's put his name behind the idea.

But it is a hard task; the shortest line between both mainlands is actually a bit over 100 miles, a fairly easily defensible distance. Yet, as you wrote, if Xi is prepared for losses - which would never be fully reported anyway - he could do it.

Of course this is another reason why China hates the idea of the AUKUS deal, and another why he'll be more likely to act sooner than later.

sadly like all dictators , they lose the backing of the people as soon as the economy hits a rock and they need something to unify the people.
The problem is that by crushing Hong Kong he has pushed Taiwan aways from him, as there was quite a chunk of the population pushing for it not long ago. I think there will be few now.
The problem of both him and Putin they can see no way to create a lasting legacy other than by conquest at their ages and they are running out of time as they both push 70

 

[Hindsight]

Ha

sadly like all dictators , they lose the backing of the people as soon as the economy hits a rock and they need something to unify the people.
The problem is that by crushing Hong Kong he has pushed Taiwan aways from him, as there was quite a chunk of the population pushing for it not long ago. I think there will be few now.
The problem of both him and Putin they can see no way to create a lasting legacy other than by conquest at their ages and they are running out of time as they both push 70

Did Xi or Putin host or attend any parties during lockdown - with or without BYOB? Seems to destabilise leaders??

 

[Ffermer Bach]

The Russians just might get a bloody nose. Didn't do so well in Afghanistan. Ukrainians will be fighting for their country so the quick invasion might turn into a marathon and Russian mums will be wailing when the body bags start to come home. Surely Putin must be asking himself is this really worth it?

I think the Ukrainians have a score to settle too

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

Apparently Putin is waiting for a change in the weather. Usual Winter freeze hasn't been hard enough to carry armour. There is window of about the next 4 weeks.

Once the Spring thaw starts he would need to wait till May/June when the meltwater is all gone.

 

[7610 super q]

 

[wanton dwarf]

If coordination is key then:

Russia
China
Iran
North Korea

China doesn't have to invade Taiwan, although makes a lot of sense to seriously harm the West. China could just release another Virus.

With Putin knocking Gas prices, the logical step would be to do the same to Oil and also harm Solar Assets in North Africa - that's where Germany has been investing.

North Korea ?

 

[Exfarmer]

If coordination is key then:

Russia
China
Iran
North Korea

China doesn't have to invade Taiwan, although makes a lot of sense to seriously harm the West. China could just release another Virus.

With Putin knocking Gas prices, the logical step would be to do the same to Oil and also harm Solar Assets in North Africa - that's where Germany has been investing.

North Korea ?

China is getting in a serious muddle with the virus, its policy of locking down whole cities on just one case is doing serious financial damage. Further they are not building any natural immunity. They cannot continue this policy for ever unless they come up with a far better vaccine. Will be interesting to see what happens after these games, it could get chaotic if the virus lets rip

 

[ollie989898]

If coordination is key then:

Russia
China
Iran
North Korea

China doesn't have to invade Taiwan, although makes a lot of sense to seriously harm the West. China could just release another Virus.

With Putin knocking Gas prices, the logical step would be to do the same to Oil and also harm Solar Assets in North Africa - that's where Germany has been investing.

North Korea ?

NK and Iran aren't global players.

 

[wanton dwarf]

NK and Iran aren't global players.

Iran could make a mess of the Suez Canal - which would also help the Russian Med Base.

Iran could also influence Turkey ?!?

I don't know enough about NK other than the potential invasion of SK.

 

[smallholder99]

why isnt the uk and usa sending troops and weapons to palestine and yemen to help defend them against israel and saudi, oh but hang on we are already selling weapons to israel and saudi, perhaps putins best plan would be to buy weapons off us so that wed leave him alone then

 

[nivilla1982]

Is Turkey not quietly making/attempting repairs in their relationship with Israel?

 

[stewart]

Who is the aggressor? The Ukraine is looking at joining NATO. What would be the response from the USA if Mexico joined the Warsaw Pact?