Is anyone working for a deal ?

[Honest john]

I keep thinking about the words used by BJ & DD to resign.

I leads me to ponder if the only game in town is to force the UK to have another Referendum.

The next thought is, is May in on this plan & the deal making is all a front. Is she putting on an oscar performance.

 

[bosses son]

No. May is making the big mistake of trying to please everyone. That always lands in a mess.

 

[Werzle]

Yep shes being pulled from pillar to post trying to stay in the job rather than nail her colours to the mast and risk falling on her sword.

 

[TelesnaAg]

Barry Huessain Obama is working flat out on your deal..good if you want to stay in EU. Although the plight of the DNC must have him scratching his head...thats one part of the plan not going right...i think he conned alot with the blue wave that was coming which was a bunch of sh*t made up by the media...but hey hes getting some cash for his troubles.

Ant...

 

[The Agrarian]

The Guardian: Jacob Rees-Mogg says UK is heading for no-deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-mogg-says-uk-is-heading-for-no-deal-brexit

Trying to be balanced here, but I think it's very likely. Back just after the referendum when I thought about all this and how it might play out, a no deal seemed the most likely one to me. It simply isn't in the EUs interest to let us leave cleanly with a good deal. They were never going to negotiate with us, and Barnier has made that clear from the start. We either walk away empty handed, or pay to keep trading the way we do.

Personally, I'd take the pay and trade option. It would be a halfway house from which to slowly wriggle out of their grip over the next ten or fifteen years. This EU thing wasn't quick to build, and it won't be quick to get out of.

 

[Muck Spreader]

The Guardian: Jacob Rees-Mogg says UK is heading for no-deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-mogg-says-uk-is-heading-for-no-deal-brexit

Trying to be balanced here, but I think it's very likely. Back just after the referendum when I thought about all this and how it might play out, a no deal seemed the most likely one to me. It simply isn't in the EUs interest to let us leave cleanly with a good deal. They were never going to negotiate with us, and Barnier has made that clear from the start. We either walk away empty handed, or pay to keep trading the way we do.

Personally, I'd take the pay and trade option. It would be a halfway house from which to slowly wriggle out of their grip over the next ten or fifteen years. This EU thing wasn't quick to build, and it won't be quick to get out of.

A no deal scenario could work but it would be a gamble. Various groups suggest a fall in GDP of up to 8% would result with no deal, this is recent Irish crisis territory. Would the EU back down at the prospect of having a large European country in financial difficulty on it's doorstep with all of the ramifications to the EU member states that it would bring, probably yes. Probably not one for the faint-hearted or TM.

 

[Honest john]

A no deal scenario could work but it would be a gamble. Various groups suggest a fall in GDP of up to 8% would result with no deal, this is recent Irish crisis territory. Would the EU back down at the prospect of having a large European country in financial difficulty on it's doorstep with all of the ramifications to the EU member states that it would bring, probably yes. Probably not one for the faint-hearted or TM.

There are others that predict + 4% GDP from a no deal WTO result.

Did you know that GB moved off the Gold Reserve in 1931 & the Pound adjusted & economy started taking off from that day.
All the so called experts of the day said it would end in disaster, It didn’t. I think France did the same but not till 3 years went by.

More resent the ERM that we can remember.

Then the best thing since sliced bread the EURO.

Now the same types say Brexit is the next worce thing to ****.

It will be great with a different leader than the current PM in charge.

Germany will then follow as out of Euro & EU.

Leaving France in the

 

[Muck Spreader]

There are others that predict + 4% GDP from a no deal WTO result.

Did you know that GB moved off the Gold Reserve in 1931 & the Pound adjusted & economy started taking off from that day.
All the so called experts of the day said it would end in disaster, It didn’t. I think France did the same but not till 3 years went by.

More resent the ERM that we can remember.

Then the best thing since sliced bread the EURO.

Now the same types say Brexit is the next worce thing to ****.

It will be great with a different leader than the current PM in charge.

Germany will then follow as out of Euro & EU.

Leaving France in the

What credible source is saying +4%
You cannot base the future of a country on the off chance of a new PM, Germany becoming dissatisfied, the Euro failing and things that happened a century ago.

 

[Honest john]

What credible source is saying +4%
You cannot base the future of a country on the off chance of a new PM, Germany becoming dissatisfied, the Euro failing and things that happened a century ago.

I read that but will have to find again just for you.

But I am seeing a guess ( that's all it can be ) range of +4% too -8% of GDP. For GB.

In 1931 we had a National unity Government. Britton was forced off the gold standard at which point interest rates were lowered, followed by a currency drop.

Quote- Labour minister Sidney Webb. ( Nobody told us we could do that )

Previously the Government was practising Extreme Austerity. Nearly all Government members & civil service thought that was the only game in town.

So now today in 2018 many think the result of a WTO result will be a large drop in GDP.
When with good governance the opposite I believe would happen.

Same when we were in the ERM very high interest rates imposed to keep as in, was killing business & home owners.
The moment we came out rates dropped & the road to recovery started.

It's the same now in Italy trapped by the Euro. They are stuck with Austerity.
When they come out of Euro, Recovery will start but German banks will need bail outs & in's.

When GB comes out of EU to start on the road to lower regulation, lower taxes, trade agreements around the World within 3 yrs others will want to follow. Maybe even France.

Singapore.
Low taxes, Free trade, Interventionist business minded government, let's say the opposite to France = the highest GDP per head.

In 5 yrs people will say thank god for David Cameron, he saved us. As did Gordon Brown keeping GB out of Euro. The other great elite idea.

Good night.

 

[Honest john]

A no deal scenario could work but it would be a gamble. Various groups suggest a fall in GDP of up to 8% would result with no deal, this is recent Irish crisis territory. Would the EU back down at the prospect of having a large European country in financial difficulty on it's doorstep with all of the ramifications to the EU member states that it would bring, probably yes. Probably not one for the faint-hearted or TM.

Err
Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Spain, They are inside the door of EU.

 

[newjames]

Uk gdp to the eu is accepted to be between 10&12 % depending on how much goes through rotterdam(no one seems to know exactly) so to lose 8% of our gdp we would need to lose somewhere in the reason of 80% of our exports which is very unlikely and of course we could gsin from a drop in imports which could help uk based firms.
Its a game of bluff and im not sure if TM us playing a blinder or a duff hand, personally I think the eu have f**ked up by playing hard ball and we will just leave with no deal,

 

[wanton dwarf]

A no deal scenario could work but it would be a gamble. Various groups suggest a fall in GDP of up to 8% would result with no deal, this is recent Irish crisis territory. Would the EU back down at the prospect of having a large European country in financial difficulty on it's doorstep with all of the ramifications to the EU member states that it would bring, probably yes. Probably not one for the faint-hearted or TM.

We only export 10% of GDP .. are all these industries going to vanish overnight ?

Not gonna happen.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

If you put whatever ideologies, sentiments ,politics etc, you have to one side and think about it on a purely practical level, the 'no deal' option is best.
It would also be a more positive experience because you start with the things you have in common rather than the things you disagree on.
We must have all been faced with a complicated , twisted and undecipherable bunch of wires at some time and you soon come to the conclusion that you may as well cut through the lot and then reconnect. Once you start connecting the biggest,brightest and most important, the rest soon get easier to match up.

 

[Honest john]

What credible source is saying +4%
You cannot base the future of a country on the off chance of a new PM, Germany becoming dissatisfied, the Euro failing and things that happened a century ago.

Ok
: Professor Patrick Milford : World trade Model. ( Guesstimate)
Fall in consumer prices of about 8%
Increase in GDP of about 4%

HM Treasury. ( Guesstimate) 2016 - 2030 reduction in GDP of 7.5% to 9.5% over some 14 odd years.
So on Ave .6% per year fall in GDP.

The Eurozone growth rate 1999-2016 ave 1.3%

Growth From 2008-2016 so post crash territory.
Eurozone 2.5% low Greece -27.3% high Germany 7.8%
U.K. 8.5%
USA 13%
Canada 14.4%
World Ave 21.2%
Switzerland 10.4%
France 4.6%

These figures show up the problems of the single currency, & to an extent the three years of delay in QE in the Eurozone, and why they have more growth ATM as they carried on with QE three years after US UK tapered off.

 

[Hornet]

Quite agree about Eurozone. Was never going to work for individual countries as they couldn't adjust interest rates to react to their own economic circumstances. Not joining eurozone was the best thing that ever happened. However leaving the common market is nuts until we have agreed new trade deals elsewhere! We won't have any trade deals with anyone if we crash out in March.
My biggest fear is we crash out and then in 10 years time we have to go back cap in hand to the EU and say we want in again, but without the unique deals that were agreed years back (rebate, our vetoing powers and we would have to join eurozone as new entrant !)

 

[Honest john]

Quite agree about Eurozone. Was never going to work for individual countries as they couldn't adjust interest rates to react to their own economic circumstances. Not joining eurozone was the best thing that ever happened. However leaving the common market is nuts until we have agreed new trade deals elsewhere! We won't have any trade deals with anyone if we crash out in March.
My biggest fear is we crash out and then in 10 years time we have to go back cap in hand to the EU and say we want in again, but without the unique deals that were agreed years back (rebate, our vetoing powers and we would have to join eurozone as new entrant !)

This is where I disagree with your terms. The word Crash.

We would retake our seat on WTO, most of our trade is done that way today ( albeit with EU siting in WTO seat )

JIT management will carry on but more time will be required. Just as now 6 weeks is required for the Far East. Stock levels will pick up between now & March 2019.

Business will find a way to carry on dispite the Political bluster.

I still believe a deal will be done at the death. That's how the EU have always worked.

 

[Reg]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obrien-gets-schooled-by-a-farmer-devon/

Good explanation of Patrick Minford's theories

 

[Muck Spreader]

Ok
: Professor Patrick Milford : World trade Model. ( Guesstimate)
Fall in consumer prices of about 8%
Increase in GDP of about 4%

HM Treasury. ( Guesstimate) 2016 - 2030 reduction in GDP of 7.5% to 9.5% over some 14 odd years.
So on Ave .6% per year fall in GDP.

The Eurozone growth rate 1999-2016 ave 1.3%

Growth From 2008-2016 so post crash territory.
Eurozone 2.5% low Greece -27.3% high Germany 7.8%
U.K. 8.5%
USA 13%
Canada 14.4%
World Ave 21.2%
Switzerland 10.4%
France 4.6%

These figures show up the problems of the single currency, & to an extent the three years of delay in QE in the Eurozone, and why they have more growth ATM as they carried on with QE three years after US UK tapered off.

Minford bizarrely was actually talking about up to 6.9% benefit to a post Brexit UK. But this relies on a binning of all EU regulations and a totally open the UK market to all imports, resulting in all UK manufacturing ceasing, including agriculture. Turning the UK into a kind of off-shore tax haven or a giant car-boot sale depending on how you look at it. He doesn't take into account things like sterling crashing, foreign investment drying up, mass unemployment, substandard goods being sold, environmental impacts etc.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

The future of the UK will depend as much, if not more, on the outcome of the next next general election than the deal/ no deal. The two are obviously intrinsically linked.

 

[Muck Spreader]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obrien-gets-schooled-by-a-farmer-devon/

Good explanation of Patrick Minford's theories

An enlightened Devon farmer, hallelujah.