Italy's in shut down

[honeyend]

' Those in Asia have had these scares before, SARS etc but they didnt go worldwide, what would have been said if the government had spent many millions on ppe that was dumped later on. It's too easy to sit on the side lines and criticise'

Exercise Cygnus in 2016, in which most NHS Trusts took part showed the holes, that the NHS could not cope, looking at some Trust pandemic plans the either didn't get the results of the report, or it was rinsed, or they would have been stock piling equipment. If not to treat patients but protect staff. In one Trust's pandemic it mentions that 50% could be affected.
The big mistake was they never factored in it could be a SARS or MERS type virus, so the whole pandemic plan was based on the wrong assumption.
Section 2.0 gives their assumptions on which the plan is based in the attached pdf.

If you have ever been to an auction of ex MOD equipment, a lot is unused, goes for nothing and often is hi-tech equipment which must of cost thousands. PPE , is easily stored, does not really go out of date. Most of the Asian goverments have plans, as part of their national plan, so PPE can be made quickly through their own manufactures.

My daughter has just applied for a job sewing PPE.

 

[Red Fred]

It was incredibly quiet on the road yesterday when I hopped over to our other bit of ground to do some grass seed. The dual carriageway was completely empty like one of those '70s nuclear survivor films, so people are being amazingly good on the whole. I think it is starting to get close as it touches people we know. Suddenly Mrs Fred is telling me about people's nephews and brothers who are bad with it, and it focuses your thinking.

 

[Chris F]

It was incredibly quiet on the road yesterday when I hopped over to our other bit of ground to do some grass seed. The dual carriageway was completely empty like one of those '70s nuclear survivor films, so people are being amazingly good on the whole. I think it is starting to get close as it touches people we know. Suddenly Mrs Fred is telling me about people's nephews and brothers who are bad with it, and it focuses your thinking.

I drove to drop my kids back with their mum yesterday. Motorway was very quiet, went 10 minutes at one point without seeing another car on my side of the road. Almost managed the 60 mile run on the M5 without adjusting cruise control. Amazing how easy it is to get from A to B when the roads are empty.

 

[farmerm]

Another interesting stat is that pretty much from day one the number of cases with a mild condition is 95% and serious/critical is 5% that figure has not changed all the way through so gives a good indication of how the virus affects the human race. It’s also a fair bit less than the 80/20 they predicted at the start. Italy and Spain may be the exception though

In these stats "mild" is a relative term! The true mild cases are those that are not presenting at hospital and not included in the figures.. many of these 95% so called "mild" cases would quickly join the critical 5% if they stopped receiving oxygen.

 

[robs1]

' Those in Asia have had these scares before, SARS etc but they didnt go worldwide, what would have been said if the government had spent many millions on ppe that was dumped later on. It's too easy to sit on the side lines and criticise'

Exercise Cygnus in 2016, in which most NHS Trusts took part showed the holes, that the NHS could not cope, looking at some Trust pandemic plans the either didn't get the results of the report, or it was rinsed, or they would have been stock piling equipment. If not to treat patients but protect staff. In one Trust's pandemic it mentions that 50% could be affected.
The big mistake was they never factored in it could be a SARS or MERS type virus, so the whole pandemic plan was based on the wrong assumption.
Section 2.0 gives their assumptions on which the plan is based in the attached pdf.

If you have ever been to an auction of ex MOD equipment, a lot is unused, goes for nothing and often is hi-tech equipment which must of cost thousands. PPE , is easily stored, does not really go out of date. Most of the Asian goverments have plans, as part of their national plan, so PPE can be made quickly through their own manufactures.

My daughter has just applied for a job sewing PPE.

But most plans that are done to consider contingencies never cover the one that happens, there are only so many that you can cover, but I'm sure when this is over the government will learn the lessons as we all will.
As I have said to others, how normal people had enough things like fuel, food etc etc to look after themselves, we will all learn lessons and be quicker off the mark next time

 

[Still Farming]

New Job for Self Propelled Sprayers?

 

[honeyend]

But most plans that are done to consider contingencies never cover the one that happens, there are only so many that you can cover, but I'm sure when this is over the government will learn the lessons as we all will.
As I have said to others, how normal people had enough things like fuel, food etc etc to look after themselves, we will all learn lessons and be quicker off the mark next time

I can not beleave you have written that.
They spent money in 2016, involving most of the NHS Trusts in the UK, its mentioned in boards minutes, on a pandemic simulation, exercise Cygnus,Part 2, so each Trust will have had to budget for it. It highlighted problems that the NHS would not cope, and the information appears not to have been fed back to the Trusts, so they could do something about it. They knew a flu pandemic was the worse stretch of the NHS, but did nothing, that up to 50% of the staff could be affected, this is just 'normal', flu.

Its flu pandemic is on the top risk list of national emergencies.
This advice has not been updated since 2015,

NHS England » Pandemic Influenza

www.england.nhs.uk

The fact is most of the guidance I can find from the Goverment is old, this is the stuff the NHS use to develope plans is pre 2016.

Emergency response: detailed information

A to Z on content relating to emergency response.

www.gov.uk

This article is dated 2016

NHS fails to cope with bodies in flu pandemic test

The NHS failed tests of its ability to cope with a major flu outbreak, the chief medical officer has revealed. A three-day training exercise showed it was not ready for a severe flu attack and that “a

www.thetimes.co.uk

It like saying we know we are going to have a fire eventually but we not spend money, on equipment to fight it, or even tell people there is a problem.

 

[ollie989898]

I drove to drop my kids back with their mum yesterday. Motorway was very quiet, went 10 minutes at one point without seeing another car on my side of the road. Almost managed the 60 mile run on the M5 without adjusting cruise control. Amazing how easy it is to get from A to B when the roads are empty.

Better to do the A1(M) at about 2 in the morning when you can set the cruise control at 90mph and not touch it for a couple hours....

 

[Hindsight]

But most plans that are done to consider contingencies never cover the one that happens, there are only so many that you can cover, but I'm sure when this is over the government will learn the lessons as we all will.
As I have said to others, how normal people had enough things like fuel, food etc etc to look after themselves, we will all learn lessons and be quicker off the mark next time

The Inquiry - Coronavirus: What Can The World Learn From South Korea? - BBC Sounds

Without a lockdown, South Korea has had great success against Covid-19. How?

www.bbc.co.uk

The Inquiry - what can we learn from South Korea

BBC Radio 4 last Friday evening. You may have caught it. If not then a good listen. The contributors would dismiss your theory. Especially a contributor towards the end Professor of microbiology specializing in Corona Viruses. Just a matter of time is his comment and that antviral drugs in anticipation could have been developed for a few 100 million dollars. He makes a pertinent observation about the developed world spending on military to not use it and preparedness, to not use it! Particularly relevant to me this morning as the USAF F15 s were doing combat training overhead. Hey ho.

 

[ollie989898]

Tell you what, when this is over, I am gonna buy some surplus respirators and canisters to go with them, plus gloves and tyvek suits.

 

[br jones]

From bbc website
The patients were aged between 35 and 106 years old. Of these 403 people, 15 had no known underlying health condition. The latest figures cover the period up until 17:00 on Sunday.

 

[czechmate]

From bbc website
The patients were aged between 35 and 106 years old. Of these 403 people, 15 had no known underlying health condition. The latest figures cover the period up until 17:00 on Sunday.

It’s a gross misinterpretation to assume those “underlying health conditions” would be fatal in any near future

 

[Treg]

Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

I know there are some on here that think the death rate for corona virus is lower than the death rate reported but several reports are saying the opposite, as in the piece above.

 

[Still Farming]

 

[Muck Spreader]

It’s a gross misinterpretation to assume those “underlying health conditions” would be fatal in any near future

Some almost certainly would have been. But when figures from China show that almost a third of the Covid mortalities involved people with diabetes as an underlying heath condition it has to be concerning.

 

[Poorbuthappy]

Some almost certainly would have been. But when figures from China show that almost a third of the Covid mortalities involved people with diabetes as an underlying heath condition it has to be concerning.

According to Guth they died of diabetes not of covid 19?

 

[czechmate]

According to Guth they died of diabetes not of covid 19?

exactly. My mum, now 87 was diagnosed with diabetes in 2006. She has lived comfortably with it for 14 years (well not that comfortably as she loves chocolat). I am sure she would not survive the virus if she catches it now. But GUTH would have here down as passing from diabetes

 

[Henarar]

According to Guth they died of diabetes not of covid 19?

no, if you take this to its logical conclusion they died of being conceived

 

[Sharpy]

no, if you take this to its logical conclusion they died of being conceived

No no no no. Heart failure. Always heart failure. The fact that even if someone is in a car crash and decapitated does NOT mean that the car accident is to blame, obviously they died because (admittedly because there was no more blood to pump) their heart stopped beating. Heart failure pure and simple.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

So our leader is in intensive care, what now