Managing volatility, contemplation and crystal ball gazing

[Spud]

Just having a bit of a review of operations here

Potatoes is still our biggest enterprise, both from a time and money perspective, but risk and reward has got more and more out of kilter in recent years. Area for 2023 a bit under half what it was in 2017 for a number of reasons. I'm passionate about the industry and enjoy the potato job but I'm sick of working like hell for nowt.
Sugar beet is very consistent here, fits in workload wise and has a brighter future since BS grasped the nettle and put the price up to a realistic level
Bean performance varies but they're cheap to grow and the wheat after is always the best on farm
Spring oats - again cheap to grow and perform consistently, but the price is crap
WOSR - in the ground now after 12yr absence, its expensive, high risk and time demanding. Not great from an EIQ or carbon viewpoint either.
S barley - malt premiums not what they were but it has a strategic place in rotation
W barley - bit of a pain, doesn't lend itself to strip til after wheat and doesn't make a fortune, but does give us a start to harvest and plenty straw
First wheat - essential, bread and butter crop. Varieties change far too often and lack resilience. Increasingly expensive to grow. Marketing/selling more of a challenge than ever
Second wheat - as first wheat mostly. Waste of time on our light land, good on the heavy
Stewardship - current agreement has a year left - who knows whats next on that score
Grass - on some wet land not much use for a lot else. Low input (and low output) hay.
Straw - we buy a bit in the swath, bale store and sell out over winter. Main customer goes back 3 generations
Stubble to stubble contracting - mostly contra'd against potato land rents
Strategic contracting - baling, direct drilling, potato topping, hedgecutting, grain drying.
1200 pigs on b&b since 1990, planning permission in place for another shed for 800
Rooftop solar makes grain drying cheaper and electric bills lower
Trials host for 3 customers and I do a bit of scribbling in the press too.

All operations except beet harvesting are in house. Hire a muck spreader.

Trying to identify chinks in the armour, ways to improve profitability and increase resilience

I'm 46, very happily married with two daughters 12 & nearly 15. 4th generation tenant. I always said that come my 60's I didn't want to be the loony working 85hrs a week scrabbling for casual labour, i wanted to be the casual labour. ie maintain a business that could sustain two full time staff and I'd fill the gaps as necessary, but fundamentally the show didn't stop if i wanted a week off. Who knows if the girls will want to follow in my footsteps, all they really see me do is work, so I guess its not that attractive.

Dad died nearly 5yrs ago. About a year later we wrapped up a not insignificant diversification in road haulage. (that dad used to run)
15months ago we had a strong farm team. Then one guy left to go and experience another industry. He started here as a timid 16yo on the grader and rose through the ranks and was very good. I take some satisfaction from watching his journey. BUT he took some replacing.
Then April 2022 came, and as some will be aware, I lost my right hand man to a heart attack - at 36years old. To say that kicked me and the team sideways is an understatement.
We have some very long standing and hugely valuable self employed specialists that come to do strategic things at certain times of year, mostly potato based. One of them's home situation changed last year and is now much less available.
We also have a few local farmers/sons that come and help out sometimes, and a good apprentice year round 2 days a week plus holidays.
Employing people is becoming ever more expensive and with ever greater obligation and responsibility

So where do we go from here?

Specialise more in the spuds? Reduce area? Build area back up? Pack the bloody things up completely? (That'd almost build the pig shed without borrowing any money)

If Putin allows the umpteen million tonnes of wheat out of Ukraine & Russia grain prices may tank. He may also decide to keep gas expensive so fert will stay high. BPS has paid my rent. Not for much longer.

We've streamlined the cereals in recent years and produce our crops much more efficiently than in years gone by. Strip til has helped a lot with this. BUT we're very small scale in the combinable market. Makes me question giving up spuds - we are in for a long overdue price increase but the risks are ever higher. Less but more profitable spuds may keep the wolf from the door if cereals become a prairie farmers job to make anything.

Be less self sufficient, employ less people and use contractors for more operations?

B&B pigs make a few quid and keep the land in good order via muck. Payback time on a new shed is a bit long though!
Happy doing the contracting we're doing and don't mind a bit more, don't want to become more of a contractor than farmer though.

We have quite a bit of experience with cover crops and regen generally with most of our crops and that may bring opportunity in time - but the time is now, not when I'm 60!

Its a proper crystal ball job working out what opportunity may come up, wether to push on regardless or have an easier life, pack up spuds and contracting, stick at strip til and sugar beet, keep pigs as they are and do most of the work myself with a bit of part time harvest help. Easier, but reliant on me. Feels almost like failure. Financially sensible? Who knows!

Just contemplating stuff, not going to make any rash decisions.

Suggestions/wisdom/comment very welcome

Cheers

 

[7610 super q]

Well. At least you still have the Ford 5600.

Please don't tell me you've sold it.............

 

[Spud]

Well. At least you still have the Ford 5600.

Please don't tell me you've sold it.............

It aint going anywhere, don't worry. Its the last one we have that dad bought, and the first one he bought himself. i spent a lot of time on it as a 12yo kid. It scruffles beet and trims verges. And processes logs.
Its good company for the MF 135 (last one from Grandpa's day) and the 3075 (first one I bought)
We also have a mk2 E1A Major from my late father in law.

And a 'one day' list of classics......but not at todays prices!

 

[Robt]

Just having a bit of a review of operations here

Potatoes is still our biggest enterprise, both from a time and money perspective, but risk and reward has got more and more out of kilter in recent years. Area for 2023 a bit under half what it was in 2017 for a number of reasons. I'm passionate about the industry and enjoy the potato job but I'm sick of working like hell for nowt.
Sugar beet is very consistent here, fits in workload wise and has a brighter future since BS grasped the nettle and put the price up to a realistic level
Bean performance varies but they're cheap to grow and the wheat after is always the best on farm
Spring oats - again cheap to grow and perform consistently, but the price is crap
WOSR - in the ground now after 12yr absence, its expensive, high risk and time demanding. Not great from an EIQ or carbon viewpoint either.
S barley - malt premiums not what they were but it has a strategic place in rotation
W barley - bit of a pain, doesn't lend itself to strip til after wheat and doesn't make a fortune, but does give us a start to harvest and plenty straw
First wheat - essential, bread and butter crop. Varieties change far too often and lack resilience. Increasingly expensive to grow. Marketing/selling more of a challenge than ever
Second wheat - as first wheat mostly. Waste of time on our light land, good on the heavy
Stewardship - current agreement has a year left - who knows whats next on that score
Grass - on some wet land not much use for a lot else. Low input (and low output) hay.
Straw - we buy a bit in the swath, bale store and sell out over winter. Main customer goes back 3 generations
Stubble to stubble contracting - mostly contra'd against potato land rents
Strategic contracting - baling, direct drilling, potato topping, hedgecutting, grain drying.
1200 pigs on b&b since 1990, planning permission in place for another shed for 800
Rooftop solar makes grain drying cheaper and electric bills lower
Trials host for 3 customers and I do a bit of scribbling in the press too.

All operations except beet harvesting are in house. Hire a muck spreader.

Trying to identify chinks in the armour, ways to improve profitability and increase resilience

I'm 46, very happily married with two daughters 12 & nearly 15. 4th generation tenant. I always said that come my 60's I didn't want to be the loony working 85hrs a week scrabbling for casual labour, i wanted to be the casual labour. ie maintain a business that could sustain two full time staff and I'd fill the gaps as necessary, but fundamentally the show didn't stop if i wanted a week off. Who knows if the girls will want to follow in my footsteps, all they really see me do is work, so I guess its not that attractive.

Dad died nearly 5yrs ago. About a year later we wrapped up a not insignificant diversification in road haulage. (that dad used to run)
15months ago we had a strong farm team. Then one guy left to go and experience another industry. He started here as a timid 16yo on the grader and rose through the ranks and was very good. I take some satisfaction from watching his journey. BUT he took some replacing.
Then April 2022 came, and as some will be aware, I lost my right hand man to a heart attack - at 36years old. To say that kicked me and the team sideways is an understatement.
We have some very long standing and hugely valuable self employed specialists that come to do strategic things at certain times of year, mostly potato based. One of them's home situation changed last year and is now much less available.
We also have a few local farmers/sons that come and help out sometimes, and a good apprentice year round 2 days a week plus holidays.
Employing people is becoming ever more expensive and with ever greater obligation and responsibility

So where do we go from here?

Specialise more in the spuds? Reduce area? Build area back up? Pack the bloody things up completely? (That'd almost build the pig shed without borrowing any money)

If Putin allows the umpteen million tonnes of wheat out of Ukraine & Russia grain prices may tank. He may also decide to keep gas expensive so fert will stay high. BPS has paid my rent. Not for much longer.

We've streamlined the cereals in recent years and produce our crops much more efficiently than in years gone by. Strip til has helped a lot with this. BUT we're very small scale in the combinable market. Makes me question giving up spuds - we are in for a long overdue price increase but the risks are ever higher. Less but more profitable spuds may keep the wolf from the door if cereals become a prairie farmers job to make anything.

Be less self sufficient, employ less people and use contractors for more operations?

B&B pigs make a few quid and keep the land in good order via muck. Payback time on a new shed is a bit long though!
Happy doing the contracting we're doing and don't mind a bit more, don't want to become more of a contractor than farmer though.

We have quite a bit of experience with cover crops and regen generally with most of our crops and that may bring opportunity in time - but the time is now, not when I'm 60!

Its a proper crystal ball job working out what opportunity may come up, wether to push on regardless or have an easier life, pack up spuds and contracting, stick at strip til and sugar beet, keep pigs as they are and do most of the work myself with a bit of part time harvest help. Easier, but reliant on me. Feels almost like failure. Financially sensible? Who knows!

Just contemplating stuff, not going to make any rash decisions.

Suggestions/wisdom/comment very welcome

Cheers

I cant offer advice but what an excellent and honest post. You should be very proud you are having these discussions now rather than 60 like you mention.... oh, an idea, go freelance H&S advisor
Cheers, Rob T

 

[7610 super q]

OK. I've been thinking. No wait, don't log off....
How much are you making from the spud job ? The way I see it is, stick with spuds, and let someone else do the corn part of the job, maybe let it to a neighbour so he grows more corn, but gives you some of his land in return for fresh spud ground.
Or you give up spuds, and just do corn as a one man band, old kit, shoestring type operation.

 

[Nearly]

You need to be spending more time patrolling the drive armed with a shotgun and a set of elastrator pliers!

 

[farmbrew]

I think there will be many on here that can relate personally to your post.
I have long said I would retire at 65. I would rather be in control than hang on till I die on the job.
However having looked at retirement options, which would mean moving out of the farmhouse, and the money required to buy somewhere I might be happy pottering about, it might not be possible.
I have little faith in the UK Governments attitude to UK farming, I don't think re-wilding the farm and sitting back would be an option.
I consider myself lucky to be doing what I do, so much better than the majority of the population...need to stay positive, it is easy to slip into depression thinking too much!!
I'm hoping things become clearer in time which direction to take.
It sounds as though you have time to consider your options, an opportunity will arise in the future....
just need to have the courage to make the decision when the opportunity is presented.
Good luck

 

[early riser]

Sack spring oats off and grow maize on contract for local (ish) dairy farmer………

 

[Spud]

Sack spring oats off and grow maize on contract for local (ish) dairy farmer………

how local? Spring oats are grown on land too heavy for maize (or too wet at back end to harvest it)

 

[Spud]

You need to be spending more time patrolling the drive armed with a shotgun and a set of elastrator pliers!

oooer missus - kids not quite got to that stage...yet!!

 

[Drillman]

If your gonna grow OSR use a conventional variety and home save the seed.

Then if flea beetle decimate the crop it’s a cheap disaster.

As for the rest of the operation if you can’t do it well either don’t do it at all or pay someone who can do it well. You will know better than anyone which (if any) aspects of your business fit that catagory.

 

[Steevo]

Reading your opening post I'm incredibly impressed at all you do!! That's a massive achievement.

 

[Drillman]

Reading your opening post I'm incredibly impressed at all you do!! That's a massive achievement.

I suspect the fact @Spud is even asking these questions is cos he’s got stuff pretty well fine tuned as it is and can’t see a lot more room for movement in his own mind. To me it does sound like a pretty dynamic multi enterprise operation

 

[Will 1594]

You need to be spending more time patrolling the drive armed with a shotgun and a set of elastrator pliers!

Dont joke at that , one may meet a keen lad wanting to farm ,and the next generation will take over ,
have a mate in cumbria ,who,s son was never really interested in farm ,and his daughter was , met a lad and he said to me if that lad treats her right and wants to farm , will watch and see what happens , any way he kept his thoughts to him self ,and roll on a few years Daughter and now husband who is a hair dresser run farm ,and doing a good job ,so you just never know

 

[Spud]

If your gonna grow OSR use a conventional variety and home save the seed.

Then if flea beetle decimate the crop it’s a cheap disaster.

I didn't save any from 12yrs ago so had to buy new seed!

I'd rather mitigate the disaster by not growing the stuff tbh

 

[Spud]

Dont joke at that , one may meet a keen lad wanting to farm ,and the next generation will take over ,
have a mate in cumbria ,who,s son was never really interested in farm ,and his daughter was , met a lad and he said to me if that lad treats her right and wants to farm , will watch and see what happens , any way he kept his thoughts to him self ,and roll on a few years Daughter and now husband who is a hair dresser run farm ,and doing a good job ,so you just never know

The possibilities are endless.

In the meantime, if I need the kids to follow me on to justify my decisions, then I'm making the wrong decisions

 

[Drillman]

I didn't save any from 12yrs ago so had to buy new seed!

I'd rather mitigate the disaster by not growing the stuff tbh

Can make it cheaper next year to grow though….

 

[Suffolk Serf]

I think that in your heart you know the answer-
Drop potatoes, continuing with b&b pigs and building the new shed will help justify some full time help.
sounds like you have a burgeoning interest in the DD/regen arable side of things, build on that.
continue with beet for the moment but question its place as the arable system develops.
Your life will become simpler, better work/life balance but no less interesting.
Thank me later.

 

[Spud]

I suspect the fact @Spud is even asking these questions is cos he’s got stuff pretty well fine tuned as it is and can’t see a lot more room for movement in his own mind. To me it does sound like a pretty dynamic multi enterprise operation

Thank you, that's very kind. I try to farm by the mantle that there's always a better way (of doing everything)
The hard bit is extracting brass from it all.
It's all too easy for diversity and risk spreading to dilute attention to detail and investment to unsustainable levels

 

[ollie989898]

This is the exact situation where you want a whole gang of Agricultural students to walk around the place and then give their ideas as part of an assignment. I did exactly this back when I was doing my HND. They might come up with some way forward you had not and it would cost you nothing but a few hours of your time one afternoon.

Much will depend on the staff you have now and what their long term plans are?