Pool prices

[Andy26]

Me? No im not especially skilled at using computers.

I was hoping sitting on your dual 48" inch desktop maybe quicker and easier than my phone!

 

[ajd132]

Yes true, but that would only offset the missed opportunity on the season before.

Should be easy enough to use AHDB ex farm dataset to compare selling an equal portion each week ex Farm Vs various pools.

@teslacoils are you the resident stats expert?

Would be interesting. A pool should in theory hit the average in my opinion, give or take. Too much either way and they are speculating/gambling.
if a pool hits the average it’s a lot less work/stress for the farmer.
I’m not defending pools by the way, just describing how I think they should work.
I’ve sold stuff this year very high and very low, need to work out the average to compare.

 

[teslacoils]

I was hoping sitting on your dual 48" inch desktop maybe quicker and easier than my phone!

Sadly what my child calls my "setup" is apparently "crap".

 

[Andy26]

Would be interesting. A pool should in theory hit the average in my opinion, give or take. Too much either way and they are speculating/gambling.
if a pool hits the average it’s a lot less work/stress for the farmer.
I’m not defending pools by the way, just describing how I think they should work.
I’ve sold stuff this year very high and very low, need to work out the average to compare.

A quick Sept-June ex Farm milling Wheat averaged over the period, equal amount each month over the ten months, gives £278/t.

 

[Badshot]

A quick Sept-June ex Farm milling Wheat averaged over the period, equal amount each month over the ten months, gives £278/t.

Is that a monthly average price used?
Or a set day each month?
Or ?

 

[Badshot]

Is that a monthly average price used?
Or a set day each month?
Or ?

It should be about that, the Jan Feb mar pool was only £20 behind that.

 

[Andy26]

Is that a monthly average price used?
Or a set day each month?
Or ?

ADHB Monthly price, collated from the weekly prices, using Excel on phone to tricky to do much more.

 

[ajd132]

It should be about that, the Jan Feb mar pool was only £20 behind that.

Which pool?

 

[teslacoils]

Without volumes sold it would be a bobbins graph.

My child also informs me that "noone says bobbins anymore".

 

[Andy26]

Which pool?

Openfields I think.

 

[Badshot]

Which pool?

Open-field, I've posted it here many times.

 

[Badshot]

Which pool?

It was £258 for milling wheat, south east, Jan Feb mar pool. Open-field.

The Apr may Jun pool ought to be much closer to £300, I'd guess at £285.

 

[4course]

we usually put a bit in a pool wether mid or late as a buffer and as we use it as a tool to avoid selling at harvest it helps the overall picture. Usually our own overall selling price beats the pool( Plus its good sport to wind the pool manager up) but if was to sell at harvest spot it wouldnt .This last year has been a case in point the pool grain price is in the lower %of sales but if I myself had sold more physical sales prior to harvest 21 id be regretting it big time

 

[Andy26]

It was £258 for milling wheat, south east, Jan Feb mar pool. Open-field.

The Apr may Jun pool ought to be much closer to £300, I'd guess at £285.

Those results suggest the pool manager has waited to see what they have before committing too big in forward sales and then sold through out the season, very prudent.

Dont't think Camgrain will be anywhere close, hope to be surprised, but with Frontier providing 'strategic marketing advice' I suspect large forward selling before the crop had even received its first dose of spring Nitrogen.

Stuck with Frontier till 2024

 

[ajd132]

Those results suggest the pool manager has waited to see what they have before committing too big in forward sales and then sold through out the season, very prudent.

Dont't think Camgrain will be anywhere close, hope to be surprised, but with Frontier providing 'strategic marketing advice' I suspect large forward selling before the crop had even received its first dose of spring Nitrogen.

Stuck with Frontier till 2024

It is quite hard to compare because of the different marketing that periods on all these different pools which I find makes it really muddy when trying to work out if frontier have done well or not.

 

[Hindsight]

Those results suggest the pool manager has waited to see what they have before committing too big in forward sales and then sold through out the season, very prudent.

Dont't think Camgrain will be anywhere close, hope to be surprised, but with Frontier providing 'strategic marketing advice' I suspect large forward selling before the crop had even received its first dose of spring Nitrogen.

Stuck with Frontier till 2024

It is quite hard to compare because of the different marketing that periods on all these different pools which I find makes it really muddy when trying to work out if frontier have done well or not.

Do you ever get a chance to sit down with the trader (s) and have a gentle non recriminatory chat about the year just gone. And for them to explain their thought processes the season unfolded and how information / prejudices etc affected their trading strategy and actual actions. I do agronomy and the past few days have been chatting with farmers about the ups and downs of the past year. What I got right (with hindsight) and what I got wrong. Constructive self criticism. All fascinating stuff. Whether we learn or gain anything from the act of self flagellation is maybe debatable but who knows.

 

[ajd132]

Do you ever get a chance to sit down with the trader (s) and have a gentle non recriminatory chat about the year just gone. And for them to explain their thought processes the season unfolded and how information / prejudices etc affected their trading strategy and actual actions. I do agronomy and the past few days have been chatting with farmers about the ups and downs of the past year. What I got right (with hindsight) and what I got wrong. Constructive self criticism. All fascinating stuff. Whether we learn or gain anything from the act of self flagellation is maybe debatable but who knows.

Should be more of this definitely.
self awareness and ownership of mistakes is something that I have really tried to push onto myself. When I was younger I would just blame other people and get angry.

 

[SilliamWhale]

Do you ever get a chance to sit down with the trader (s) and have a gentle non recriminatory chat about the year just gone. And for them to explain their thought processes the season unfolded and how information / prejudices etc affected their trading strategy and actual actions. I do agronomy and the past few days have been chatting with farmers about the ups and downs of the past year. What I got right (with hindsight) and what I got wrong. Constructive self criticism. All fascinating stuff. Whether we learn or gain anything from the act of self flagellation is maybe debatable but who knows.

Out of interest what did you get right and wrong agronomically this year?

 

[robs1]

It is quite hard to compare because of the different marketing that periods on all these different pools which I find makes it really muddy when trying to work out if frontier have done well or not.

Also I suspect some are forgetting pool prices are net of levies bad debt insurance etc a but like milk prices when the headline can be reduced by transport etc at different rates.
If people dont like pool prices it's very simple do it yourself

 

[Beefsmith]

What have the harvest pools and Aug-Dec pools manage to achieve this season for wheat and barley?.

My neighbour is fuming with his Frontier pool. I doubt he’ll ever sell to them again. He’s about £150/t adrift from where we are which quite frankly is a disgrace.