Reference period

[midlandslad]

When do people think the reference period will be for delinking BPS payments?

 

[Norfolk Itch-Ants]

Good question...
I see Anderson's think it'll be next year but personally I'm not so sure. It will be massively distorting next year to both the entitlement market & the short-term land rental / grass-keep values as well.
However going too far back into the past isn't very useful either as the reference period rapidly becomes out of date.
So why not just use 2020?

 

[Goweresque]

When we swapped from IACS to SFP they used a 3 year average, meaning that it wasn't all or nothing, if you had land for 1 out of the 3 years you got a third of the payment, up to all the money if you had all 3 years. And if I recall correctly all the years had already occurred when the announcement was made to prevent people gaming the system. On that basis perhaps 2018-2020?

 

[glasshouse]

This sounds totally ridiculous

 

[Norfolk Itch-Ants]

When we swapped from IACS to SFP they used a 3 year average, meaning that it wasn't all or nothing, if you had land for 1 out of the 3 years you got a third of the payment, up to all the money if you had all 3 years. And if I recall correctly all the years had already occurred when the announcement was made to prevent people gaming the system. On that basis perhaps 2018-2020?

Yes using 18-20 makes sense & while there will always be winners and losers this is probably the fairest way.

Can you imagine if they announced it was going to be next year's?! There would be a massive scramble for entitlements & land with those with the deepest pockets winning out.
Certainly would create some negative headlines around use of public money going to millionaires.

Agents would love it.....!!

 

[teslacoils]

Mañana, mañana.

 

[Will Blackburn]

Are they really going to do it? Why would they earmark a subsidy detached from land and then the ELMS is going to based on income forgone? Free cash for landholders then no free cash whatsoever.

 

[midlandslad]

Read the guidance, it is coming and pretty soon. This will be the catalyst to change but only if people realise you don’t need the land to get the rest of the sub payments.

 

[Will Blackburn]

They’ve always used the subsidy system to control what we do, they won’t like losing control.

 

[GeorgeK]

Are they really going to do it? Why would they earmark a subsidy detached from land and then the ELMS is going to based on income forgone? Free cash for landholders then no free cash whatsoever.

Hard to see the hints of a golden parachute for landowners materialising? If they are paying off historic recipients AND opening a new scheme with similar funding levels, that will mean a massive hike in total costs to the government. How's that going to fly given the current economic climate and increasing focus on inequality and deprivation?

 

[midlandslad]

Hard to see the hints of a golden parachute for landowners materialising? If they are paying off historic recipients AND opening a new scheme with similar funding levels, that will mean a massive hike in total costs to the government. How's that going to fly given the current economic climate and increasing focus on inequality and deprivation?

The bare bones of the policy are set out in the Ag Act and we are due updated guidance/ consultation later this month which will further detail the direction of travel.

 

[Goweresque]

There is a government policy document that sets out pretty much what they are going to do, all thats missing is the timings and the reference period:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/868041/future-farming-policy-update1.pdf

Page 37 onwards details the delinking proposals. It won't come in until 2022 at the earliest so BPS applications will definitely be required in 2020 and 2021, but whether an announcement of any reference period will occur before then is in the lap of the Gods.

 

[glasshouse]

There is a government policy document that sets out pretty much what they are going to do, all thats missing is the timings and the reference period:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/868041/future-farming-policy-update1.pdf

Page 37 onwards details the delinking proposals. It won't come in until 2022 at the earliest so BPS applications will definitely be required in 2020 and 2021, but whether an announcement of any reference period will occur before then is in the lap of the Gods.

I take it thats england and wales only

 

[Will Blackburn]

I should imagine Wales will be different to England, it was last time.

 

[7610 super q]

Wales is always different to England. I believe subs are to be phased out altogether over the next year or 2. We are meant to survive on grants for covered slurry lagoons and cattle weighers. Bit of a bummer for arable farmers........Oh no wait, there's a grant for a bad till drill.

 

[Tubbylew]

There is a government policy document that sets out pretty much what they are going to do, all thats missing is the timings and the reference period:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/868041/future-farming-policy-update1.pdf

Page 37 onwards details the delinking proposals. It won't come in until 2022 at the earliest so BPS applications will definitely be required in 2020 and 2021, but whether an announcement of any reference period will occur before then is in the lap of the Gods.

In laymans terms, managed agricultural collapse. Although for tenant farms seeking ammunition for a rent review it states in black and white "...We expect rent prices to fall as Direct Payments are phased out. Delinking payments, which removes the link between the value of the payment and area of land for which it was previously claimed, should speed up this adjustment in prices."

 

[e3120]

Hard to see the hints of a golden parachute for landowners materialising? If they are paying off historic recipients AND opening a new scheme with similar funding levels, that will mean a massive hike in total costs to the government. How's that going to fly given the current economic climate and increasing focus on inequality and deprivation?

I don't read it as overlapping or extra, just reducing the effort on both sides to claim the remaining, diminishing BPS money. If anything they will look to save money by offering, say 75% of it, as a lump sum, rather than automatically dishing it out year by year.

Nonetheless, the date of reference year(s) is likely to generate big winners and losers, just as it did in the past.

 

[yellow belly]

The devil will be in the detail
no pointment in doing anything different because you could jump the wrong way

this has been the case with every change of policy that government make since the year dot

 

[Worsall]

IMO referencing will be taken prior to the recent Royal Assent of the Bill. Taken as an average over three years.
So 2018/2019/2020 BPS years.
Delinked payments made 2022.

 

[Brisel]

This sounds totally ridiculous

What would be fairer? What drives Scottish payments at the moment? Still historic from a long time ago?