Rising age of my customers

[BDBed]

After everything was going so well second cut done with the new wagon, baler and wrapper with everything under control and 14000 bales through the conventional baler and bandit in six days. It all went so wrong so quickly. A major incident with my conventional baler and bandit (the draw bar snapped on the baler and ended up sitting on the side of the bandit) and to top it off a big break down on the rake. This has left me in a situation where I'm faced with a new conventional baler asap and nothing moving for a week.

Now both baler and rake were due to be changed this winter. But after having a lot of time thinking (never a good idea) I am definitely noticing the age of my customer base rising fast. Not just age but for an example a long standing customer of mine who I have always seen as a very able person has this year surprised me with how his age his showing and catching up with him (I do not consider this person to be old either). I have also noticed a trend of new customers coming to me for a couple of years and then packing up. I am now starting to think who and what will be left of my customers and who will be there to replace them.

So is anyone else finding or thinking similar? Is it changing your thought process on investment in machinery and how you look at your business? As I'm starting to question what I should do!

 

[oakleaf]

Your customers arent getting older any quicker than you are. I would pack in the small baling myself.
There will be customers for your other services so expand that.

 

[Goweresque]

There's going to be a shakeout I think in the next 5 years, as BPS goes and whatever they have in store replaces it. As things stand an elderly farmer can allow his business to wind down, slowly reducing workload as body/energy declines, because the BPS cheque keeps coming in. As we all know, actual farming doesn't make much money, the stats all show that for a lot of farms the BPS money is the profit. So in fact for many people slowing down does not affect their income, it may even increase it. However once a new scheme comes in that only offers money in return for doing things, rather than doing nothing, and at a lower payment level no doubt, then there will be a forced change - people will have to face their own ageing and start to either sell up or rent out land. Either way new blood will come into the sector. But that will take time - there may be several years of transition where the aged are trying to work out what to do, and new entrants haven't got going, and demand for contracting services is low.

 

[Cowcalf]

take a look in a mirror

 

[Pan mixer]

I am guessing though that the majority of the bandit customers are equine - that shows no sign of declining.

Older farmers who are winding down will use good contractors more (I am) as you realise that you can't do it all.

Any new entrants are typically under capitalised and will want contract work from people with reliable kit, they will also be in the market for good, well maintained modern kit in the future so if you can afford to buy now it will be saleable.

The only difficulty is affording it now at these usurious prices.

 

[BDBed]

Your customers arent getting older any quicker than you are. I would pack in the small baling myself.
There will be customers for your other services so expand that.

Good point but at 29 I'm looking forward to trying to create and keep a sustainable business that can provide for my family. My concern is how to do that when at any minute a good chunk of me customers could say they've had enough and go. I had one new wagon customer this year 170ish acres first time doing it loved what we did but has decided to pack up.

The trouble I've got is the small baling is where I started and what I'm really know for. I'm the only one doing it so gives me the opportunity to take on who I want and leave the bad payers. This year I have found the pressure hard to deal with as every man and his dog has wanted do little bales doing. Well there's no pressure now with no baler

We have so many contractors in our area doing the same thing and racing to the bottom with price that wrapping bales especially you would be giving the customer the service to expand. The wagon is a different thing altogether.

 

[BDBed]

It would brake instantly!

 

[BDBed]

take a look in a mirror

It would brake instantly!

 

[BDBed]

I am guessing though that the majority of the bandit customers are equine - that shows no sign of declining.

Older farmers who are winding down will use good contractors more (I am) as you realise that you can't do it all.

Any new entrants are typically under capitalised and will want contract work from people with reliable kit, they will also be in the market for good, well maintained modern kit in the future so if you can afford to buy now it will be saleable.

The only difficulty is affording it now at these usurious prices.

I don't deal with the equine market directly at all. My customer base is split between people that produce fodder to sell of their farm which most would go to or farmers them selves.

 

[oakleaf]

Good point but at 29 I'm looking forward to trying to create and keep a sustainable business that can provide for my family. My concern is how to do that when at any minute a good chunk of me customers could say they've had enough and go. I had one new wagon customer this year 170ish acres first time doing it loved what we did but has decided to pack up.

The trouble I've got is the small baling is where I started and what I'm really know for. I'm the only one doing it so gives me the opportunity to take on who I want and leave the bad payers. This year I have found the pressure hard to deal with as every man and his dog has wanted do little bales doing. Well there's no pressure now with no baler

We have so many contractors in our area doing the same thing and racing to the bottom with price that wrapping bales especially you would be giving the customer the service to expand. The wagon is a different thing altogether.

That extra info throws a different perpective on it. I was looking at it through my eyes which are twice as old as yours.
Given your age I would go and get a replacement baler asap. Since its where you started and are known for and you say there is lots of competition in other areas perhaps that is what you should stay at. I always found baling and spraying to be the best paying jobs for a contractor.
All your customers are unlikely to cease en masse so you will most likely pay off a new baler before they dwindle away entirely. New ones also turn up as well.
And you can always sell off your baler if things go pear shaped.
Breakdowns are part of the game l'm afraid, as is pressure. They both become easier to cope with as one gets older l find.

 

[4course]

The trend is for contractors to get bigger and bigger forcing out the one man band with smaller equipment, for instance we sold some grass to an ad plant. contractor cut and foraged the 30 odd acres with over£ 1.5 million worth of gear in the field total time @ 4 hours, this is gradually removing the middle layer of contractors, there have been a few quit in the last couple of years and the local smaller men are chasing the same customers but are getting left behind in some cases
The equine market is fickle to say the least ,as so much good hay has been made this year there could be a carry over from the smaller maker as 1/2 way through winter the customers will decide only haylage will do.
We have now decided to not make anymore hay for sale and make haylage as the market is likely to be saturated and could well impinge on next year.
The equine market is heavily dependent on the state of the economy particularly for new entrants
As for ageing clients my son usually goes to market with lambs. 35 years ago I was one of the youngest men there last month I went and it was still the same I was among the youngest ( me mid 60s) by some margin, only with about a 1/4 of the people, which is a sign that even though the land is still there the individuals arnt or have cut back or entered into some agreement which goes along with my opening paragraph
The question the op poses is as a young man with a family to keep should he continue ,only he can decide ,if its any help all I can offer is that the small baler is one of our most profitable machines making hay haylage and straw but once you start using much paid help/labour that diminishes

 

[Cowabunga]

After everything was going so well second cut done with the new wagon, baler and wrapper with everything under control and 14000 bales through the conventional baler and bandit in six days. It all went so wrong so quickly. A major incident with my conventional baler and bandit (the draw bar snapped on the baler and ended up sitting on the side of the bandit) and to top it off a big break down on the rake. This has left me in a situation where I'm faced with a new conventional baler asap and nothing moving for a week.

Now both baler and rake were due to be changed this winter. But after having a lot of time thinking (never a good idea) I am definitely noticing the age of my customer base rising fast. Not just age but for an example a long standing customer of mine who I have always seen as a very able person has this year surprised me with how his age his showing and catching up with him (I do not consider this person to be old either). I have also noticed a trend of new customers coming to me for a couple of years and then packing up. I am now starting to think who and what will be left of my customers and who will be there to replace them.

So is anyone else finding or thinking similar? Is it changing your thought process on investment in machinery and how you look at your business? As I'm starting to question what I should do!

My forage harvesting and baling customers were all small dairy farmers, not one with over 100 cows and mostly around 50 to 70 milkers. All getting on in age and so was my father who did the raking and carting. I decided to get out of that job about 20 years ago and within five years not one of them was left milking cows. Only two of the seven now even make any clamp silage and the others have descendants that now only farm part-time and hardly keep stock worth noting over winter.

It all depends on circumstances where you are as to whether you continue, consolidate or expand. Where do you want to be in five year's time? How old will you be? Will it pay? Will your customers be there? Is there something you would prefer to do that is also a better business proposition?

 

[Northeastfarmer]

Small bales are enough to age anyone

 

[Cowabunga]

Small bales are enough to age anyone

Have a look at how they bale and cart small bales behind these massive combines……

 

[Spud]

In your situation I'd get a decent second hand baler bought sharpish and crack on. Demand for my old quadrant varies with weather. A dry time we bale about 3000, a wet time nearer 7000. It's paid for, so it's fine. Be more of a problem if it was on finace and fluctuating from 5000(older baler fine) to 10000(old baler not enough)
It's a funny thing is scale.
Oh, buy the rake new - I have many scars from mending scrap rakes - bought a new one from local dealer stock, far better.

 

[BDBed]

In your situation I'd get a decent second hand baler bought sharpish and crack on. Demand for my old quadrant varies with weather. A dry time we bale about 3000, a wet time nearer 7000. It's paid for, so it's fine. Be more of a problem if it was on finace and fluctuating from 5000(older baler fine) to 10000(old baler not enough)
It's a funny thing is scale.
Oh, buy the rake new - I have many scars from mending scrap rakes - bought a new one from local dealer stock, far better.

Always buy grassland kit new or ex demo. Tractors are really the only thing I buy second hand. Spoke to the JD rep they can have a new baler with me in three days. So can get things moving if I decide to. Just makes you sit back and think about things and where you heading.

 

[4course]

oh, and if buying a small baler get a welger if you can find one, it will be worth the same when or if you sell it. will cost more but imo worth it

 

[Pan mixer]

Always buy grassland kit new or ex demo. Tractors are really the only thing I buy second hand. Spoke to the JD rep they can have a new baler with me in three days. So can get things moving if I decide to. Just makes you sit back and think about things and where you heading.

I really like the 459, has to fit in with the bandit though - most Welgars produce a different shaped bale. The weight per bale is the same though - we have tried many times in competition with a neighbours Welgar.

 

[BDBed]

459 works for me the best. Welger baler has an inch wide chamber. You can fit a reduction kit but from what I've seen it makes the bale very untidy. 459 is the lowest baler on the market so I can see everything from the back of the baler to all the bandit. Speed not an issue would average around the 550 bales an hour. The main reason for JD is that I'm only 6 miles from langar the main parts place in country. No dealers stock little baler parts anymore but there always at langar.

 

[Tractorstant]

Always buy grassland kit new or ex demo. Tractors are really the only thing I buy second hand. Spoke to the JD rep they can have a new baler with me in three days. So can get things moving if I decide to. Just makes you sit back and think about things and where you heading.

I would be phoning every dealer in the UK. If you can save your self £500.00 it's profit directly into your pocket. Don't panic buy.