Simon - Long range?

[Rob Holmes]

Hi Simon,

Crystal ball time, any idea what the mid/long term forecast will be?

Basically, will it be a nice, long hot summer?

@Simon Keeling

 

[Simon Keeling]

Here's the spring update Rob try this one. Suimmer forecast is with private clients at mo, haven't had chance to record online but will get some ideas together for you asap.

Simon

 

[franklin]

Please dont let this summer be sh!t too. Been too cloudy for too long.

 

[Paddington]

Does this mean the private clients get the better weather?

 

[Refco]

So, how much does it cost for the better weather? Maybe we could all club together for a bit of sunshine in August?!

 

[Simon Keeling]

Yes, they pe-order it specially...I am the Weather God !!!!

 

[einstein]

not wishing to be disrespectful to simon-i am always interested in what he has to say but how people can pay for a long range forecast is beyond me.There is no way of forcasting detail accurately more than a week ahead imo.Thats why the met office gave it up.Ok they produce a 30 day trend forcast but it has so little detail in it-cos theyknow you cant forcast detail that far ahead.If anyone out there would like to put some money my way i will happily provide a forcast fot the rest of the year!

 

[Farfrae]

Not Long Term but According to the Met Office


UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Mar 2013 to Monday 18 Mar 2013:

Generally unsettled over the course of the weekend, with many areas seeing spells of rain and drizzle accompanied by extensive low cloud, and also a risk of hill snow in the north. Also rather windy, particularly across the north and northeast. As we progress through this period, predominantly unsettled conditions look to persist across the UK, but with a trend to steadily colder conditions once more. This means that precipitation across northern and eastern areas (most of which will be showery) is likely to turn increasingly wintry by midweek next week. Strong winds at times will exacerbate the cold feel, especially in exposed eastern areas, and there will be an increasing risk of overnight frost. The best of any brighter spells are likely across the far north and northwest.



UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 2 Apr 2013:

Most areas are likely to be colder than average during this period, with an easterly influence most probable. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, in an easterly regime, some western and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to be drier and sunnier than normal.

Issued at: 1600 on Mon 4 Mar 2013

 

[Dave Applesquasher]

Whether the weather be fine,​

Or whether the weather be not,​

Whether the weather be cold,​

Or whether the weather be hot,​

We'll weather the weather​

Whatever the weather,​

Whether we like it or not!​

​

 

[Grassman]

Simon forecast about 4 weeks of dry weather about 4 weeks ago and thats exactly what we have had. Credit due to him!

 

[Stoxs]

Alot easyer to forecast dry weather than it is wet weather , Dry weather is dependant on High pressure, In the last 4 weeks we have had a large high presssure floating around the U.k so predominantlly dry would be a good call.
Now to say from wednesday how long the possible wet weather will be around is much more difficult.
I am not having a dig a Simon , weather forcasting is an art and one that takes a lot of skill and knowledge. Far more than i have.

But i do agree that nothing more than trends can be put togeather any further in front than 1 week max of 2 in settlled conditions, look at this winter past twitterings of winter like 63, coldest for 10 years, in the end a pretty average winter.
But it would be nice to have some nice dry weather around August please Weather gods!!

 

[wobs]

LRF is a waste of time and money.no one and i mean no one can accurately tell me how the next 10 days will pan out,never mind anything beyond that.cracking 18Z gfs tonight if you like cold and potential snow for next week.
but as always it's a prediction modeled by a computer that has very poor performance stats this past winter.
I like Simon's presentation style and technique.
Take todays METO output for the 19th-2nd of April.it has more escape routes than a sieve lol.
UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 2 Apr 2013:

Most areas are likely to be colder than average during this period, with an easterly influence most probable. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, in an easterly regime, some western and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to be drier and sunnier than normal.
Updated: 1137 on Mon 4 Mar 2013

basically it tells you nothing of any use whatsoever.would you plan your work schedule around that forecast?

 

[wobs]

good cross model agreement for the cold spell according to Exeter.

 

[Stoxs]

been a long winter , i will give it that.
Have seen mutterings of a cold march but going on this winters model display have not took much notice.
The crops really dont need to much more cold weather, the growing season will be getting really short if this continues until April!!

 

[wobs]

been a long winter , i will give it that.
Have seen mutterings of a cold march but going on this winters model display have not took much notice.
The crops really dont need to much more cold weather, the growing season will be getting really short if this continues until April!!

It's coming I'm afraid.

 

[Filthyfarmer]

I'll go with the long range forecaster that predicted the end of the drought last year and the wet summer that followed

 

[Stoxs]

It's coming I'm afraid.

it will down grade to a frost or two and a bit of snizzle by the time it gets to T0 lol

 

[wobs]

it will down grade to a frost or two and a bit of snizzle by the time it gets to T0 lol

the UKMO is out on it's own tonight,scratchy head time down at Exeter me thinks.

 

[Stoxs]

the UKMO is out on it's own tonight,scratchy head time down at Exeter me thinks.

Not looked at latest model forecasts, is the METO on its own with the cold or without it?
Not a good time of the year to be having snow and the like, ends up wet and Sh**Y

 

[franklin]

Wet and shitty = 2012.

World and his dog have been working land and drilling beans this week. Not going to be nice after a few days of good rain, then a month of snow and cold. Another time when seed in the shed better than seed in the sh!t.

I dont mind a bit of rain, but perhaps we are also due for some heat and sun this time?

 

[wobs]

uppers showing to drop to -14 here,thats colder than anything winter just past.loads of snow potential in off the North Sea all begins Saturday going off the GFS.
Cheltenham Festival could be very interesting next week.

 

[Stoxs]

certainlly looking much colder,
We shall see how long it lasts