Some good news, a really important graph

[Danllan]

Below is a simple graph. The really, really good news is the disparity between the two curves. Clearly the red line is rising but, hopefully, if the public follow government advice, this difference will remain. The effect of social distancing and other measures will not have come into effect in time to affect this graph, which is good news in itself.

 

[Goweresque]

Apart from which the actual number of infected people will be far higher than the number of confirmed tests, because not everyone who has it will be tested, as many (probably most) will just get it, be sick and recover. So the gap between the two lines is even bigger than that.

 

[Samcowman]

A word of caution with this. The people dying now would have got it and possibly diagnosed 2-3 weeks ago so it’s not quite as good as it looks if you shift the red line to the left.

 

[RushesToo]

There is a time from first infection to death and I think if is 14-21 days after the first signs so you are seeing deaths today from people that were infected on 7th - 14th March.

The number of infected on those days is dramatically understated as tests were few at the time. Currently up to 10,000 tests per day are possible.

 

[robs1]

What is the average time lag between infection and death that is the crucial bit

 

[farmerm]

I hope you are right... however my more pessimistic interpretation is the red line lags is simply lagging 3weeks behind the blue line... what that graph also needs to show is the number of cases requiring ventilators, the number requiring critical care and the capacity of ventilators and critical care beds.... Saw a piece on a ward in Italy with about 20 beds with patients in critical care, staff have been keeping the patients alive for a while (in effect moving the red line to the right) but only 1 patient on their ward has shown any signs of recovery. Many patients have been in for a week or more with no improvement, most have ultimately died.

Confirmed cases in UK are largely those in the 15% of total cases that have presented at hospital with serious symptons. Total infected is most likely about 6-7 times the number confirmed, or at least it was 10 days ago after you allow for the lag in symptoms developing and time for test results...

 

[John1975]

Glass half full, glass half empty, mines empty but i admire your optimism

 

[milkloss]

Glass half full, glass half empty, mines empty but i admire your optimism

Glass is too big!

 

[Samcowman]

What is the average time lag between infection and death that is the crucial bit

At least 3 weeks I think

 

[Danllan]

Apart from which the actual number of infected people will be far higher than the number of confirmed tests, because not everyone who has it will be tested, as many (probably most) will just get it, be sick and recover. So the gap between the two lines is even bigger than that.

A very good point which I considered making, but decided not too because it is one of those 'helpful' 'known-unknowns'... but I agree with you nonetheless.

A word of caution with this. The people dying now would have got it and possibly diagnosed 2-3 weeks ago so it’s not quite as good as it looks if you shift the red line to the left.

Yes and no. If you take on board @Goweresque's point, that tends to factor out a leftward shift somewhat and, again, people began taking this more seriously a few weeks ago too.

I guess that stats from April 1st ( ) onwards will tell us most...

 

[Bald Rick]

Consider this ...

We live through our death day every year.

If it’s not to be 2020, that’s good news

 

[wr.]

Hoards of walkers on the path to Pen y Fan on the Brecon Beacons. All walking pretty close to each other and if like usual, it will be standing room only on the summit. Perhaps they don't own a telly or radio.
I believe Snowdonia is inundated also.

 

[czechmate]

Yorkshire dales, Norfolk coast, sw.
I am hearing about it everywhere. I’m struggling to see the optimism. Bet BJ is giving you what for tomorrow and no more mr nice guy..
Like our mr macron last Monday

 

[Muddyroads]

What’s not known, and never will be, is how many die from it rather than with it. The first 2 to die were diagnosed within hours of being diagnosed so the virus itself may well not have killed them. Every death is one too many, but stats and graphs aren’t that reliable. More striking to me is the way our deaths are mirroring Italy who have a similar population to ourselves. I really hope the similarity soon stops.

 

[Lofty1984]

I wonder how many of the deaths would of happened if the poor buggers had caught the “normal” flu instead

 

[Martin Holden]

Stephen Fry when interviewed on Andrew Marr this morning said “the language from the experts always starts with” “ we think, we’re not sure but, current research suggest” etc etc. The point he was making is that the experts in this field don’t know many things about this virus, they are learning as we go along, so the many “keyboard warriors” with what reads like absolute facts are not necessarily correct. We are all learning about this virus so let the experts get to the bottom of it and then we have a chance.

 

[ProDrive]

Shame know bodies listening, Snowden yesterday.

 

[som farmer]

is it better for people to be out in the fresh air, or in a enclosed environment ? Personally I want the urbanites to stay urban, but can't help feeling a day out in the fresh air, is good for them, My other half works in a shop, in a small town, loads of 70 plus years out as normal, kids from no school, meeting up, and kisses and hugs, as if they hadn't seen each other for years, let alone 24 hrs. F in law 84, really doesn't understand this self isolation, walking into town, to get his bit of shopping, doesn't count. I expect many more are of the same opinion. For self isolating to become important enough to sink in, alas, many more people will have to succumb, partly, I expect, due to their actions. But the whole thing, seems to be surrealistic, as if it is all happening somewhere else, and not 'real'. I also think it has been quietly lurking about, for longer than we are told.

 

[robs1]

A lot of those self isolating are the lazy fudgers using it as an excuse to skiv

 

[Hilly]

More folk out n about this weekend than have been all winter.