Ten year milk price

[pine_guy]

A couple of former dairy farms up for rent locally on a ten year FBT. What ten year average milk price would you choose to base your business plan on?

Don't want to get into a discussion on system ect. So let's just choose a middle ground base litre (of which I'm a bit naive) say 3.5% protein and 4% butterfat.

 

[supercow]

26 pence average. I would take an average of 26 pence, and it shouldn't be out of the question to get that.

 

[Beef farmer]

24ppl. Because if it's not there or there abouts there won't be any milk left.

 

[supercow]

It's just going to be a rollercoaster, supply dries up due to low milk prices milk price rises volume goes up and so on so on. Some part of me wants it never to go above 27/28 pence, means there will be less of a crash in a years time

 

[Beef farmer]

It's just going to be a rollercoaster, supply dries up due to low milk prices milk price rises volume goes up and so on so on. Some part of me wants it never to go above 27/28 pence, means there will be less of a crash in a years time

Exactly. Everyone says they need 28p, very few have actually got there yet, people are going 3x day. Shed builder has people on the phone for robot installations. He had a quiet 18 months for obvious reasons,but can't believe how mad it's gone. So by local standards, after 25p the taps get turned on.

 

[coomoo]

24ppl. Because if it's not there or there abouts there won't be any milk left.

That's where I'd be, brutal but the industry is no further forward now than 18 months ago.

 

[dinderleat]

40p go organic

 

[pine_guy]

40p go organic

Hmm, as I understand it, I'd need all that to justify the low milk volume from the weeds I'm growing in honesty I have no idea about organic. But on a 10 year FBT wouldn't I use 20% of my tenancy getting to organic status ?

 

[coomoo]

A couple of former dairy farms up for rent locally on a ten year FBT. What ten year average milk price would you choose to base your business plan on?

Don't want to get into a discussion on system ect. So let's just choose a middle ground base litre (of which I'm a bit naive) say 3.5% protein and 4% butterfat.

Any discussion with consultants so far and if so what's there thoughts?

 

[multi power]

Hmm, as I understand it, I'd need all that to justify the low milk volume from the weeds I'm growing in honesty I have no idea about organic. But on a 10 year FBT wouldn't I use 20% of my tenancy getting to organic status ?

Well I'd much rather milk 100 cow's for 40 odd ppl than 200 for 25ppl

 

[pine_guy]

Any discussion with consultants so far and if so what's there thoughts?

No, currently a thought in my head. And consultants I'm not a fan of and think I could find something better to do with the money saved on their bill.

 

[pine_guy]

Well I'd much rather milk 100 cow's for 40 odd ppl than 200 for 25ppl

Depends on the profit. Assume the COP for organic is much higher and hence the premium paid for the milk!

 

[coomoo]

No, currently a thought in my head. And consultants I'm not a fan of and think I could find something better to do with the money saved on their bill.

Agree but a necessary evil to step up.

 

[coomoo]

A couple of former dairy farms up for rent locally on a ten year FBT. What ten year average milk price would you choose to base your business plan on?

Don't want to get into a discussion on system ect. So let's just choose a middle ground base litre (of which I'm a bit naive) say 3.5% protein and 4% butterfat.

Actually do you milk now and if so do you want to milk on this farm yourself or along with staff? Regardless of system this will have a large bearing.

 

[pine_guy]

Actually do you milk now and if so do you want to milk on this farm yourself or along with staff? Regardless of system this will have a large bearing.

A large bearing on what. It maters not what my system is or where (within reason) or who milks the cows (assuming the milk meets spec), the average base milk price will be the same. And whatever anyone predicts it to be, be it some one on here or a consultant or Ian potter for that matter, it is a complete guess based hopefully on some reasoning. So I asked the question to see others reasoning.

What my system and farm circumstances will effect is the businesses ability to generate profit. Probably the content of another thread I will start in due course.

Just realised I may have inadvertently kicked that question off unintentionally in the robotic milking thread, sorry. For now, here I'm interested in ten year milk price and reasoning. But as ever, all thoughts, views and info is appreciated.

 

[coomoo]

Doesnt matter who milks the cows? Of course it does. You'll care more, try that bit harder, be more aware of the overall business etc. Presumably then your an expander.

 

[wasted years]

I think that if you want to apply for either of these farms then what the local AD man is giving per acre is going to be as relevant as a notional milk price for the next decade.
I heard he was last loser on a nearby farm at 14k an acre.

 

[Rossymons]

It can be whatever you want it to be. The last 3 years has shown us both ends of the spectrum.

 

[O'Reilly]

Just make sure that you have a plan for 15p for one of those years, the rest will fall into place. However I agree with 24p for 10 years

 

[More to life]

We haven't had a Brexit before so it could be anything, 40ppl and we could still be skint or 20ppl with a nice margin or not